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manual count audit shows no election cheating

May 31, 2010 Leave a comment

we can have an army of  koala bears on video but that say anything about cheating in the election. the only thing it says is it’s interesting tv for a 15 seconds, not more, no less.

we think what really counts is the manual count audit that is being done. this marries old style vote counting versus new world vote counting where the old is checking on the new.

the manual count audit is yielding nothing that points to any form of election cheating.. they are correct to conclude that  when they saw no pattern in the errors. aside from the very low error,no pattern means there was no intervention from outside sources. for election cheating to occur, the cheaters need to use the computer system and programs used by the COMELEC. for cheating to be done, a pattern will emerge as that is the nature of computer programs. computer programs operate in distinct and predictable patterns.

they should complete the audit and its analysis soonest so that the election cheating charges will be laid to rest for good.

Manual audit shows ‘no vote tampering’
By Tarra Quismundo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:23:00 05/31/2010

MANILA, Philippines—The accuracy of the country’s first automated elections still holds as a comparison of hand-counted and machine-counted votes showed variances that do not suggest any pattern or deliberate tampering, an official supervising the random manual audit (RMA) said Sunday.

Henrietta de Villa, chair of the RMA technical working group, said discrepancies so far noted did not suggest a pattern that could be attributed to intentional efforts to cheat.

The RMA, conducted through the collaboration of the Commission on Elections, National Statistics Office (NSO) and Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV), seeks to determine the accuracy of the automated count by comparing it with manually counted results from some 1,145 precincts nationwide.

“So far, what we see through our naked eye is that there is no pattern,” said De Villa, who is also the PPCRV chair.

She said that was the first thing she asked the encoders from the NSO, “‘Is there any pattern?’ And they said ‘there was none,’ because the variances we saw happened to different candidates in different places,” she said when reached by phone Sunday.

Human error

De Villa said one-digit to double-digit discrepancies were spotted in the evaluation, though some cases could be attributed to human error.

She cited one precinct where the board of election inspectors mistakenly wrote 352 votes as the total, while a validation of the hand count tallied with the machine count placed it at only 253 votes.

“But we don’t see any deliberate effort [to write the wrong results],” she said.

The RMA team has so far audited ballots from some 1,050 precincts as of Saturday night, said De Villa.

10 more days

Validation of the results might take 10 more days, De Villa said, as the technical evaluation committee would have to again conduct a per-ballot review of results from precincts where variances where noted.

“People might think we’re delaying this but it’s not that easy. In case of double-digit variances, we elevate that to the technical evaluation committee and they’d have to check again if the right ballots were counted,” De Villa said.

De Villa again called for discernment when looking at left-and-right charges of fraud, saying only cases with solid evidence should be investigated.

“If it’s really legitimate, then it should be investigated. But there are really some wild, wild accusations … Maybe some [candidates] would just like to be on the spotlight or prove that their allegations are correct,” she said.

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philippine GDP growth 1Qtr 2010 but poverty rate remain high

May 28, 2010 Leave a comment

this is good news – the philippine economy growing with its GDP improving by 7.3% during the current year’s first quarter versus a 0.5% growth same period year ago. it is good news at face value but looking into what happened in the first quarter, it’s an expected growth since this is an election year. first quarter growth was most likely driven by election spending which naturally were expected to peak during that period with the election held in the 2nd quarter.

this phenomenon is a regular occurrence during election time in the country. a similar impressive GDP growth, the highest in the country’s history,  was recorded in 2007 during the election period as well, that time the election for senators.

there are two more sobering points to consider – one is that the country’s GDP growth in most instances pale in comparison to the GDP growth of other countries in Asia.  looking at those numbers, one might say the country’s eco performance may not be that impressive after all.

During the first quarter,

  • Singapore’s economy grew 15.5 percent;
  • Thailand, 12 percent;
  • Malaysia, 10.1 percent;
  • Vietnam, 5.8 percent;
  • Taiwan, 13.3 percent;
  • China, 11.9 percent;
  • Hong Kong, 8.2 percent; and,
  • South Korea, 7.8 percent.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20100528-272446/RP-economy-grows-73

the key question that needs to be asked all the time when looking at impressive GDP growth is the question of sustainability.  country economic data like most other financial numbers go through cycles of peaks and valleys. peaks that are sustainable, that can be achieved over a long period of time is what we want. since this latest eco growth is mostly election spending driven, that means it is not sustainable. the next election is scheduled years from now, not on a quarterly basis.

at around the same the GDP data was released, the government released a different data that we think the government, this time the incoming aquino administration, need  to watch more closely.

this data says the country’s poverty level has remained the same.

GDP growth is a good thing, but what the country needs a lot more of is that the poverty rate of the country to go down. a growing GDP rate and stagnant or increasing poverty rate means the rich is getting richer while the poor remain poor or are getting poorer.

a very large portion of the philippine population is poor where the DE socio-eco class accounts for  at least 83% of the population. reducing poverty in the country will mean affecting a much larger chunk of the population in a very positive way.

the stage is set for the aquino administration.

president noynoy aquino’s campaign promises

May 21, 2010 Leave a comment

Nick Perlas is my candidate but Noynoy Aquino is my President

May 15, 2010 10 comments

Nicanor PerlasFirst of all, I would like to thank and congratulate 2010 Presidentiables Blog for giving me a chance to be part of this blog. There were heated exchanges during the campaign period but of course that is part of what election and politics is. Wawam had to be congratulated for his blog and I hope that in 2013 we will see another one of this kind. I also hope that this blog will continue and this time MONITOR THE PERFORMANCE OF THE WINNERS.

Now on with the article which I originally posted at The Delano Observer.

I would like to agree and borrow this quote from Carlo Angelo Vargas, “Nick is my cadidate but now Aquino is my president,” this statement calls for healing and seeing beyond the difference of election and serving for our country.

Noynoy AquinoI would also like to say that I have the same view. With all honesty I do not like Noynoy Aquino. As I have said in my blog, “Pagod Ka Na Bang Maging si Juan?” he is not the best choice for president but the people have spoken and they choose him.

Noynoy Aquino has a very mediocre track record as a legislator and he fails compare to his parents but we should still give him the benefit of the doubt. We should not wait and ensure that we prove our suspicions true and that he commits every mistake possible.

What we should do is really find ways to help him as our new president. Let us remember that if he fails, it is not only him that will suffer but it is the whole country that will be affected.

Again I would like to quote Carlo, “Nick is my candidate but now, Aquino is my president. As my president, I will support him when he is right, and hold him accountable when he is wrong.”

I am a Filipino, I am Maharlika and I am for the best interest of our country and our people.

how a small Yellow Army helped aquino gain a landslide win

May 15, 2010 1 comment

 

there is a popular bulletin board for pinoys in the internet with a lot members very much involved in the may 2010 elections. in that bulletin board is a small Yellow Army who mounted efforts to help noynoy aquino win this election. they were a very small group, no more than 20 members compared to their “opponents” in that bulletin board who supported other presidentiables.

the bulletin board had very active and very noisy supporters of gilbert teodoro, manny villar and richard gordon. easily, the small band of yellow army was outnumbered at least 4 to 1. with each presidentiable opponent having at least 50 to 60 members, multiply that by 4 presidentiables  and we have 200 to 240 individual posters outnumbering the no more than 20 members of the yellow army.

we have started in this blog a chronicle of the exploits of that small yellow army and how they were able to stand their ground and in the end win in their efforts.

here is one juicy part —  with just a few days before election day, the small group of individuals decided to organize themselves. more on this later.

click to read more: http://wp.me/Pnw03-1gA

bad news for mar roxas – both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls show a Jejomar Binay win

May 15, 2010 Leave a comment

the current COMELEC and GMA7 unofficial partial tally of votes put jejomar  binay and mar roxas to close to call with a spread of only 800T votes with binay leading but 6 million votes still uncounted. binay has claimed victory, saying only an electronic garci can change the outcome while roxas says he will win by a squeaker when the votes from visayas are counted, roxas’ bailiwick. both are saying these are based on reports from their supporters who are in the field.

however, both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls point to a binay win with pulse asia giving it to binay with a 5.3% points margin. with a 1% sampling error, that puts binay a slight winner. SWS gives it to binay a 2.4% points margin.

roxas saying the visayas as his bailiwick is being confirmed by the pulse asia exit poll where he dominates with 54.7% versus binay’s 25.4%. however, binay dominates roxas almost with the same large margin in all other areas – NCR, Luzon and Mindanao. 

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=720

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

at 90%, binay still leads with 802T: partial unofficial tally

May 14, 2010 19 comments
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