SWS poll (march 2011) – aquino satisfaction rating suffers a significant drop, the good news and the bad news
a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino. malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern. as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.
first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency. aquino started at a net satisfaction of +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.
previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of any president during months after the election. it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.
looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents, aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30). in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.
what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.
Ratings drop for Aquino
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.
May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating
the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change. their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.
the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.
Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.
Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)
Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.
As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.
(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)
The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.
They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)
the 2010 election is probably one of the nastiest philippine presidential election in its history. not that philippine elections are known for intelligent debates on national issues, but noynoy aquino in particular have received the worst kinds of negative attacks.
there is a very long laundry list of negative and even personal attacks on noynoy aquino that started almost on the day after he announced his candidacy. almost all the attacks were personal – lack of achievements, lack of experience, being a bachelor, being autistic, his cigarette smoking, his hair or lack of it, his use of his parents credentials and the most recent, the double fake psyche reports.
but none of it, not a single negative attack got to stick to aquino. that makes aquino a teflon presidentiable.
aquino’s standing in the polls since the very start has not changed – he has been the front runner. while his current rating may not be as high as what it was at the start, he continue to dominate the other presidentiables. shrinkage from his going in rating is normal and expected. what is unusual and admirable is that he has maintained his front runner status from day one till now even though black propaganda against aquino was always there in various and new forms.
how was aquino able to survive such atttacks?
this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog….
this poll was conducted middle of april, about 4 weeks from election time and it shows aquino’s lead continue to be strong at 38% while villar shows downward trend at 26%. aquino having a strong double digit lead and villar showing a declining trend is good news for aquino and very bad news for villar.
we are reading the poll results with just 2 weeks to go till election time. with nothing new and no remarkable or outstanding efforts done by villar since survey time till today, a 2 week lapse, it is difficult to expect that villar’s down trending trend has been arrested or reversed. in marketing, the way to arrest and reverse a declining sales and market share trend is to some new and heavy marketing efforts. not doing anything new and heavy means the trend will continue. this should be true for villar.
in fact, the past two weeks has not been good for villar. erap estrada and juan ponce enrile exploded a new scandal – the VLL and PSE scandal where both charged villar used his influence and power on the PSE to allow him to sell his shares on the IPO of VLL which was supposed on escrow. rules of the PSE disallowed the release of shares for sale by owners to protect investors.
we have said in this blog that villar is getting hurt by the C-5 corruption scandal since early this year, then it got solidified as a dead weight with the villarroyo charge. this VLL-PSE scandal has the potential to confirm in the minds of voters of villar’s weakness in character where he tends to use his power and position for personal gain. the gain in this particular instance is worth billions of profits in the sale of his VLL stocks.
with the VLL-PSE scandal breaking out in the last two weeks and with no to little new and heavy efforts done by villar, we can expect further deterioration of villar’s ratings.
we are now at the point of no return. the only way the trends will change is doing a hail mary pass. who has the guts or who is most desperate to do it?
the list of senatorial candidates topping the march 2010 pulse asia poll is a mixture of personalities who cannot be any more different. just like the presidentiables, there is no unity or even sameness among them. as in previous senatorial elections, the list is dominated by opposition senators with just a few coming from lakas-kampi.
The survey fieldwork was conducted from March 21 to 28, 2010 using face to face interviews. Prior to and during the conduct of the survey, several events grabbed the headlines and these are as follows: (1) the Supreme Court’s declaration that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has the authority to appoint the successor of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato S. Puno and the protests that followed the high court’s decision; (2) various appointments made by the President following the Supreme Court’s ruling; (3) the start of the official campaign season for the local elections; (4) election-related concerns including double registrants in the voters’ list, downgrading of security features in the ballot, and questions regarding the nominees of several party-list groups and Commission on Elections (COMELEC) Chairperson Jose A.R. Melo’s dismissal of a “failure of elections” scenario despite these and other problems; (5) the possible disqualification of several presidential candidates due to failure to abide by election laws regarding airtime limits on their campaign advertisements and placement and size of their campaign materials (e.g., billboards); (6) the expression of support for the Nacionalista Party’s (NP) presidential candidate, Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr., by some allies of President Arroyo in Cebu; (7) reports regarding the falling-out between President Arroyo and Philippine National Police (PNP) Director General Jesus Versoza following the latter’s declaration that he will not support any attempt to extend the President’s term should there be a failure of elections in May 2010; (8) the government’s decision to retain its original growth target of 2.6% to 3.6% despite the El Niño phenomenon; and (9) continued oil price hikes.
with just a few weeks left in this campaign, manny villar’s rating in the most recent SWS poll should be taken as a huge ref flag being raised on the villar bid for the presidency. this is the first time that we are seeing villar’s rating take a dip. it has been consistently going up over the months.
coming at this late stage is particularly worrying as it leaves very little time for the campaign to first find out what is causing it and equally important to do something about it.
villar has tied aquino as front runner only after many months of campaign activities and millions of advertising peso way ahead of the official start of the election campaign. this front runner status did not come easy for villar. now having such a short time to recover is cause for worry.
we think it is the C-5 controversy that is causing this weakness in villar’s poll rating. it is finally catching up on him. it does not help that aquino, his co-leader started airing tv ads that were single minded on corruption. those ads of aquino created a very clear contrast between the two campaigns.
the road to recovery for villar lie exclusively on this – finding out what is causing the deterioration in the poll ratings. not getting that right will make his efforts worthless. they need to do something very different in the next few weeks left in this campaign. doing more of the same will not help villar, it will even be counter productive.
this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.
aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.
villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past. villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air. villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.
estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.
the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.
presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline. doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return for them.
Aquino opens up lead versus Villar
LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.
Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.
Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.
Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.
Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.
There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).