Daang Matuwid failure – after 7 months, Roxas reaches only 4th and flat in the polls

Mar Roxas’ presidential campaign is unique – it is the only campaign that has single-mindedly stayed on one platform and advertising campaign since it launched in end July, 2015 with the formal endorsement of President Noynoy Aquino at Club Filipino. Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” since that formal endorsement. In the words of Aquino, Mar Roxas will “continue Daang Matuwid”.

With that announcement, Roxas got a huge bump in the polls, surging from a single digit rating to a double digit rating. That was in September 2015 where his rating at Pulse Asia stood at 18% making him a legitimate contender among the presidentiables. The surge placed Roxas at 3rd and very close to Jejomar Binay who was at 2nd, That was the first time that Roxas placed strongly in the polls.

But that surge in September 2015 was the last good news Roxas has gotten in the polls. For seven (7) months since September 2015 that Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” , Roxas has not gotten any good news in the polls.

After seven (7) months, Roxas is still 4th out of 5 candidates and his ratings has remained flat, just moving within the range of 17% to 20%, close to being within the margin of error. Being within the margin of error means the differences in his ratings are not significant, his numbers have not really changed.

 

 

This means “Daang Matuwid” is associated with failure, the most that it has given Roxas in the last seven (7) months of being single-minded on it is 4th place that is not moving at all. fourth place in an election will not win it.

In marketing and advertising an ad campaign or a brand positioning that is not delivering the results, like a rise in market share or an uptick in volume sales, is immediately dropped and changed into something else.

This action of dropping and changing ad campaigns and brand positioning is even more dire in a political campaign. A political campaign is short, lasting just months and has a definite deadline – election day. Not getting it right by election time means losing the election.

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” for sure is a WAWAM!

Read also :

• why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing http://wp.me/pnw03-1Z5

• Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing him – the numbers show it http://wp.me/pnw03-1YE

 

why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing

Part 3.

 

 

this is a lethal combination for any campaign or brand – when your own ad campaign is doing badly while at the same time your competition’s ad campaigns are doing very well. you have nowhere to go for strength.

 

 

 

the Mar Roxas ad campaign fails in its advertising strategy. no amount of creative advertising or media spending can make an ad campaign work for you when the strategy is all wrong.

brand positioning is the most important and most powerful component of the advertising strategy. get the brand positioning wrong and everything else is wrong and weak.

the Mar Roxas campaign is so entrenched and totally defined by “Daang Matuwid” that any negative, any comment or any problem with it by extension is put on Mar Roxas. never mind that Roxas has no direct hand on them. voters are not seeing that. the take away of voters is that with Daang Matuwid as failing or having problems, Mar Roxas is failing and having problems.

elections are about the future, the things that will happen for us in the future. that is the reason why elections are about promises that the candidates are making now and will do in the future. Daang Matuwid is about the current and the past. a candidate promising the current and the past will not be going anywhere in an election that is about the future.

 

with Roxas placing 4th out of 5 presidentiables, his marketing and campaign objective is clear and obvious – he needs to convert supporters of his competitors into his camp. his goal is to look for switchers from his competitors, he needs to convert them to his camp.

“Daang Matuwid” does not do that. in fact the reason supporters of his competitors are supporting others is because they are promising something other than “Daang Matuwid”. promising “Daang Matuwid” is not giving them reason to switch. all that it will do is sustain his current power base which based on the surveys is a small minority.

 

 

 

dropping “Daang Matuwid” is a very major and serious change that the Mar Roxas campaign needs to do. it is necessary. keeping it in the campaign as a brand positioning will not move up Roxas’ standing in the surveys and not move him to win in the election.

there should be some consumer research that the Mar Roxas campaign can do to confirm my views on Daang Matuwid. regardless of the consumer research , the numbers that we have now supports my view – Roxas’ ratings are flat and he ranks 4th out of 5 candidates.

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is a WAWAM!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing him – the numbers show it

Part 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

“Daang Matuwid” is hurting Mar Roxas, to win #2016PHVote, he needs to junk it

Mar Roxas 2 mini-attack ads – view them here

finally completed – these are the two (2) mini attack ads by Mar Roxas

this was the first one aired:

the emphatic ending of “higit sa lahat hindi ko kayo nanakawan” is an obvious reference to Jojo Binay.

 

this is the second one:

Roxas says:

• “walang drama” – refers to Grace Poe and her dramatics
• “hindi ako paawa” – refers to Jojo Binay
• “hindi ako siga-siga: – refers to Rody Duterte
• “hindi run ako abusado” – most probably refers to Jojo Binay
• “at hindi ako magnanakaw” – definitely refers to Jojo Binay

we think Binay had the most mention, 3 mentions out of 5 because he is #1 in he presidentiables survey. Poe and Duterte got one mention each because they are the other two contenders. Santiago did not get any mention because she is even lower than Roxas at the surveys.

what do you think of these ads? let us know by posting your comments here.

 

a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

a new era in Philippine political advertising was opened up last night with the airing of three (3) full blown attack ads against presdientiable Jojo Binay aired at last night’s Kapuso Mo Jessica Soho TV show at GMA 7.

we’re still looking for copies of the vsBinay attack ads on the internet but this is what we remember the ads to be:

• all three (3) ads are talking heads
• 2 of the ads have 2 males and the third ad had a female talking head
• all three looked like ordinary folks
•  first ad aired started with “Boss Binay…” then the ad enumerates the various corruption charges related to Makati buildings
• second ad talks about the numerous bank accounts Binay allegedly have. supers highlight the number of bank accounts and the total in the accounts, “P11 Billion”
• third ad started with “Boss Binay…” then talks about Hacienda Binay
• all the ads end with the talking heads asking to answer the allegations featured in the ad

a 3rd attack ad just aired on GMA7 – "Sir Binay…" mentions Hacienda Binay. wow, they're covering all areas. #2016PHVote

— WAWAM (@wawam) January 31, 2016

these are full blown attack ads – they refer to only one candidate, even calls out Binay directly and focusses on the corruption allegations that have been made on Binay. the intent of the ad is to remind people of the negatives on Binay. focussed on that, the ad does not mention who the ad is from and who the audience should vote for. it does not build up a candidate, it aims to destroy one. the aim of the ad is to make Binay supporters drop Binay and choose another candidate. Binay in the most recent SWS survey has catapulted back to the number 1 spot.

who produced and aired the vsBinay attack ads? that is not identified in the ads. the ending supers of the ads just says “this is a paid advertisement”. in the US attack ads identify from whom the ad is from where at the ending of the attack ad says “i am (name of candidate) and i approve this ad” with a picture of the candidate who released the ad.

we think and this is just based on speculation on our part, the vsBinay attack ads may have come from the Roxas campaign. the media placements on the TV show seem to point to that. the vsBinay attack ads were aired very close to the Roxas ads that were aired on the show. media buys are done in clusters where ads from the same group are aired within the same program. no Binay was aired at the Jessica Soho TV show, only the Roxas ads were aired.

also and this could be competing reason enough to believe the Roxas campaign aired the vsBinay attack ads – it is Roxas who stands to gain the most in bringing down Binay in the surveys. Binay just climbed to the number 1 spot while Roxas has been languishing on the 4th spot. that is a dismal performance considering that there are only 5 presidentiables.

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

1. complain to media about the attack ads
2. answer the ads though a press conference
3. have the ads banned from the air
4. launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

#3 for sure they will do and as of this writing the ad agency must be writing a complaint letter to the Philippine Ad Board (this goes by another name now). the Philippine Ad Board is a self-regulatory body put up by the Philippine advertising industry where all ads pass through and are given approval to air, print or release. TV stations require an approval slip before they are aired on media.

the Ad Board has very specific and exhaustive guidelines as to what can be aired and not aired on Philippine media. all advertisers and ad agencies follow these guidelines.

competing clients and their ad agencies can petition the Ad Board to have an ad removed from the air. the Binay Team will most likely attempt to do this today. it would be a nice effort, but i do not think the Ad Board will agree to ban the ads. the Binay Team does not have any basis for having the attack ads banned. but they can always try.

my guess is that if the Binay Team is denied in its complaint to ban the attack ads, they will probably make a stink of it in media or take the Roxas Team to court. it will be an interesting time for Philippine advertising.

so far tonight : 3 attack ads against Binay and 2 mini attack ads by Roxas. #2016PHVote

— WAWAM (@wawam) January 31, 2016

let’s step back a little first.

these three vsBinay attack ads follow the mini-attack ads Mar Roxas aired a few days ago. in fact, we also saw a new second mini-attack ad by Mar Roxas last night.

the mini-attack ads aired by Roxas is a talking head of Mar Roxas talking to the audience about who he is and what he will do. his topics are the negatives of his opponents and aims to convince the audience that he will not be like his opponents.

the Roxas mini-attack ad aired last night follows the first one aired by the Roxas campaign last January 26, 2015 (click here to read : Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad). the first mini-attack ad was against Binay, it ended with Roxas saying “hindi ako magnanakaw” while the second mini-attack ad was against presidentiable Rody Duterte.

note : we are trying to get copies of the ads and will post them here when available.

a day after  the first Roxas mini-attack ad was aired, we posted this on January 27, 2915 (3:20 pm) over Twitter (@wawam) :

then an updated version was posted on January 28, 2016 (9:41 am) :

the attack ads that the Roxas campaign aired were not the type that we think would work best for Roxas. we thought Roxas needed to air more hard working (i.e. hard hitting) attack ads. nastier ones that would cut like a knife on his opponents. and for his campaign to do that, we thought it should be from the Liberal Party or the senators. we were thinking of omnibus ads from the Liberal Party or all the LP senatorial candidates could handle the nasty attack ads.

having said that, the mini-attack ads Roxas aired is still a good step in the right direction. the good thing about them is that they replace the boring and to us quite ineffective TV ads Roxas has been airing since last year.

.@teddyboylocsin attack ads have put PHL election into a higher level of sophistication. political attack ads are very tricky. needs savvy.

— WAWAM (@wawam) February 1, 2016

Philippine political advertising has been changed by the attack ads. i think it has taken it to a different and higher level of sophistication. attack ads on its own are tricky ads to do and this is the first time that attack ads are being done in the Philippines. it is tricky because it can go overboard and can backfire if not done right.

being new, the Philippine audience or voters will need to adjust and learn to take them in. the Philippine audience until last night have only been exposed to  positive ads about their candidates. these ads now talk about negatives about candidates and that will take some adjustment in understanding and specially accepting them.

with this change, the 2016 election will be one for the books. it will make history and change things for the future.

or we can conclude that  the 2016 election is one heck of a nasty election.

Mar Roxas for the win – launch attack ads

this afternoon, we posted these on twitter :

we didn’t think the Mar Roxas campaign is doing well. in fact we think it is doing badly. we have the numbers on our side – Mar Roxas’ ratings in the surveys are flat at best and more importantly a slight decline in ranking.

while Roxas’ results  are flat and slightly declining, his key opponents Jejomar Binay and Rody Duterte are surging upwards.

the most impressive of the two is Binay who not only recovered but reversed his declining trend to a surge that has placed him at the top. that is a reversal in fortune in a most dramatic way.

Duterte who was a late entry into the race saw his numbers rise up to a competitive ranking in the surveys,

Binay zoomed up on the basis of his “nognog” ad campaign which he started to air a few weeks ago. Duterte has aired ads but his strength is on his positioning of tough on crime.

Roxas on the other hand aired forgettable TV ads based on “Daang Matuwid” which we thought was close to being boring and did not make any remarkable impression for Roxas.

we thought Roxas’ anemic TV ads is costing him the election. Roxas’ numbers remained flat behind these campaigns.

we thought attack ads would do Roxas well. actually, more than building Roxas, it will stop the rise of his opponents. Roxas’ opponents are clearly on an upward trend and that trend needed to be stopped. the attack ads will do that.

we also posted this chart:

the chart defines in broad, general terms the compass direction that the Roxas campaign should take.

we think Mar Roxas is the most qualified and most deserving among the presidentiables but that is not reflected in the results from the surveys. and we think that is being caused by the misplaced and weak marketing and advertising strategies and executions they have been airing.

the attack ads would be a great step in the right direction.

is the attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas at YouTube the start of Nega Ads War?

attack / negative ads are not allowed to be aired in Philippine media by the self-regulating Ad Board of the Philippine advertising industry. that is the reason why we do not see such ads on air.

attack ads are allowed in the US and  they are usually against political candidates. they take the form of exposing or talking about the bad or wrong policy decisions or positions taken by political opponents. negative ads can be done in the US by consumer brands, often by way of side-by-side demonstrations that show one brand outperforms the other and the brands are clearly identified.

this is the first time that we have seen an attack / negative ad in the Philippines. since this is not allowed in Philippine traditional media, this one in the internet at YouTube.

we are now wondering if this attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas will usher in a new era in Philippine elections where attack / ads will be posted in the internet by competing political candidates. there is very little that can be done in terms of regulation on content aired in the internet or even YouTube and that means the possibilities of what kind ads will be posted is limitless, we can see the very worst posted in the internet for everyone to view.

without regulation and the possibilities unlimited, the first casualty will be the truth and fairness. this can be really messy for all, not just the candidates but even for the rest of Filipinos.

this can be start of the Nega Ads War in philippine elections.

new in Philippine elections – negative / attack ad against Mar Roxas

we saw this TV ad at YouTube as we were looking for Mar Roxas political TV ads. we were surprised, this is the first attack / negative TV ad aired in the Philippines.

 

why is this first? that is because attack / negative ads are not allowed to be aired in the Philippines. and that is probably the reason why this can only be viewed in the internet through YouTube. the TV networks will not allow its airing on their TV stations. so far it has gotten only 13T views since it was posted last November 16, 2015 by a Michael Gierza.

this attack / negative ad against Mar Roxas is a polished ad that can only be written and produced by an ad agency. copy works very well, the production values are not superb but its passable and acceptable. the casting is well done with credible millennials appearing on the TV ad. it is an ad targeted against millennials.

the negative issues being hurled at Mar Roxas are well chosen, these being exactly the problems many of us, not just the millennials have been complaining about  for many months now, these are – heavy traffic, MRT problems and the Yolanda problems that are often blamed on Roxas.  the messages in the ad will resonate among the voters, among all voters who are not living under a rock in the Philippines.

the ad aims to do two (2) things : cast doubt on Mar Roxas and to confirm the negatives that have been talked about to be true. casting doubt on Roxas is potentially powerful and can harm Roxas. once a doubt is cast in the minds of the target audience, they become very easy to completely capture and convert into the opposite side.

the negatives or accusations have been around for many months. the idea is to put them on media so that those seeing the ad will confirm in their minds to be true. personally, i do not think that are true and it is underselling for Roxas to be blamed for those.  and that is how this ad becomes sinister. these are unverified truths, even unexplained in the ads why these are to be blamed on Roxas. but because the ad is out, there will be people who will not question its veracity and just accept them as truth.

the problem with the ad is the question of truth. are these negative issues truthfully attributable to Mar Roxas? i doubt if any one of it will pass the test of truth, there is this thing called “truth in advertising”, right?

Mar Roxas’ marketing and campaign teams should have this removed from the internet / YouTube. this has the potential to hurt Roxas if it gets a lot of views. it has only gotten only 13T views so far, lets see if it gets more after this posting in this blog.

we now wonder how that can be approached and removed from YouTube. YouTube and the internet is NOT governed by the Ad Board, the self-regulating body of the Philippine advertising industry. it has regulatory powers among local media like traditional media – TV, Radio, Print and others but most likely has none on the internet and YouTube.

we have to admit, given the barrier on airing attack / negative ads on Philippine media, putting one on the internet  and YouTube is a smart move.

 

 

 

 

mar roxas’ “sacrifice” tvc

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog

Mar Roxas’ TV ad “Padyak II- ramdam” – ramdam kong umiyak, natawa nga lang ako

this ad of mar roxas talks about the right things – a presidentiable who feels the pains and aspirations of the people, someone who will fight for them. the people complains and talks about their needs on  high prices, corruption, education and health.

but the execution of this ad made me laugh.

the dramatic music was supposed to bring out concern and empathy from the audience. the ordinary people who talked on cam sounded grave and their messages heartfelt.

but i laughed! no tears, no concern and not empathy, just laughter.

the directorial treatment was over-acting. the actors and actresses in the ad did not know how to act. they could have been real people and not actors and that means the director did a very bad job at directing the real talent actors. if the talents were professional actors, they were really bad actors.

because of the acting and the directorial treatment, the whole thing looked fake and unreal.

it is a WAWAM!

the case for anger management therapy for mar roxas

we think the mar roxas brand image may have taken a nasty one – to that of an angry and nasty man and we have the pictures to prove that. is it this “angry and nasty man” brand character that has forced roxas to air his latest tv ad, “padyakitos”. one of the intent of this ad to drive up mar roxas’ cuteness and soften his image. we think that has failed in more ways but these pictures are the symptoms on why he needed anger management therapy:

senator mar roxas becomes senator putang ina

“i-am-not-sorry” on “putang ina” at the senate

ad shows roxas with anger lines on his forehead and clenched fists

we have written in this blog about the last picture where we thought the brand character that came out from this ad is one of an angry and combative man, not at all endearing and most specially fatally wrong given the “putang ina” incident. this ad was the first released after that incident.

watch the ad again and you will see that from start to finish, mar roxas had anger lines on his forehead. the clenched fist at the end added to the angry and combative brand character.

read and view here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2009/01/23/mar-roxas-murang-gamot-not-pagmumura-sa-rally/