the attack ad memes that the Mar Roxas campaign needs – since yesterday

sometime mid March, we posted a chart over twitter for the Mar Roxas campaign. at that point there were many data points that were showing the Roxas campaign was not going anywhere. Roxas’ ratings in the polls were not going up.

in many of Mar Roxas supporters’ minds was the question – can Mar Roxas till win the election? and other questions like – what can Roxas still do to win? is it too late for him?

those questions were being asked of me over at twitter since i had taken the view that the Mar Roxas campaign was failing. having a weak campaign was a view i took since November 2o15 when i started tweeting about it. that POV was based just on an analysis of the Mar Roxas ad campaign and the resulting brand positioning that Roxas has taken. it was anchored the ad campaign and brand poisoning of “Daang Matuwid” which is the main weakness.

at that time in November there were still a few quantitative data points to support my analysis and point of view. but that changed by  February 2016 when there were already an avalanche of data points that showed the Roxas campaign was failing –  poll results showed he was stuck at 4th place in a field of 5 candidates and his ratings were not moving at all, it was flat within the 18% to 20% range.

 

this will deal with number 3 on the above – “air attack ads vs Binay, Poe and Duterte”. they are Mar Roxas’ opponents who occupy the first 3 positions ahead of  his 4th ranking.

at this point, Mar Roxas’ campaign objective need to be : add  supporters by gaining from and converting supporters of his opponents to his side.

he is 4th and at best has 20% in the polls. those will not win the election for him. he will obviously need to go up to 1st with at least a 35% rating. that means he needs to take 15% points from his competitors. he needs to convert that many supporters of his opponents to his side,

one of the most effective ways to do that is to air attack ads against his opponents. attack ads are ads that question the credibility, put in doubt the abilities and correct the wrongs said or done by Roxas’ opponents. the target audience are the supporters of his opponents and the goal is to convince them that they are supporting the wrong candidate and instead shift their support for Roxas.

today, we saw over at twitter memes on Grace Poe based on her performance during the last second presidential debate. these are “fact check” memes – these memes are correcting the wrong things that Poe said during the debate. these to us is a form of attack ads.

there were many more “fact check” violations committed by Grace Poe during the debate. and even much more committed by the other candidates, Rody Duterte and Jejomar Binay.

over at Twitter, i suggested to the mar Roxas campaign and Mar Roxas supporters to do more fact check memes on Poe and specially the other opponents of Roxas.

memes are cheap to make but we think if done well and in good numbers, it can be effective specially if traditional media picks them up.

attack ads are what Mar Roxas needs. they are not a WAWAM!

 

 

ads of Mar Roxas’ competitors that worked for them, hurt Roxas

Part 2.

 

 

 

 

 

the presidentiables on the Economy and Jobs

PDI is running an interesting series of articles on the presidentiables. we ae providing a link here and excerpts.

source : Agenda of the next president: Economy and jobs 

Agenda of the next president: Economy and jobs

Starting Feb. 9, 2016, the Inquirer is coming out with a 10-part series on pressing national concerns that should be high on the agenda of the five contenders in the May 9 presidential election. The series should help Filipinos choose wisely the country’s next leader.

In line with the Inquirer’s “ThINQ.Vote.” advocacy, we have asked the presidential candidates to outline their concrete plans of action in dealing with 10 decades-long issues on poverty, economy and jobs, food security, peace and order, corruption, health care, foreign policy, traffic, climate change and Internet connectivity.

Under the Aquino administration, the economy has grown by an average of 6.2 percent–the fastest since the late ’70s. And thanks to reforms in the bureaucracy, business has been bullish and foreign direct investment has been rising 53.1 percent from 2012 to 2014. But not everything is rosy. Creating jobs remains a challenge, more so as global oil prices plunge. If the downturn continues, some 1.5 million temporary workers in the Middle East could lose their jobs.

INQUIRER.net is publishing verbatim the candidates’ action plans to strengthen the economy and create jobs for Filipinos. For the summary of the 10 pressing issues, go to our special Election 2016 website.

 

Jejomar Binay

A Binay administration will pursue the amendment of the economic provisions of the Constitution. We aim to ease the foreign ownership restrictions on key sectors as this will open up the economy further–a major factor in attracting more foreign direct investments (FDIs). More FDIs mean more jobs and livelihood for Filipinos.

Under a Binay presidency, we will also strengthen substantially the sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, business

Jejomar Binay

process outsourcing, and exporting–which are the five biggest job generators.

Agriculture

Reforms will be undertaken to foster a competitive and sustainable agriculture and fisheries sector to increase agricultural productivity. A Binay presidency will create agricultural economic zones in key agricultural provinces and promote agricultural value-added processes to increase job creation, reduce post-harvest process and enhance output value.

We will train farmers to shift from subsistence farming to agribusiness; amend CARP (Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program) provisions to allow farmers to lease their land to agri-entrepreneurs and investors; and push crop diversification, wherein high-value crops–much more profitable than rice and corn–are planted.

A Binay administration will also provide subsidies in irrigation, fertilizer and seeds to help farmers defray some costs. We will also help farmers get connected to markets such as restaurant chains, supermarkets and food processing companies, and enable them to access credit. We will strengthen crop insurance services and credit guarantee to minimize farm-related credit risk. We will also seek to lower transaction cost to reduce lending rates.

We will improve water resource management and planning through research, and train local farmers as an operational intervention to increase manpower and double the area of irrigated lands.

Many of our farmers are now aging and young Filipinos shun farming because it is perceived to be difficult and its returns are low. It is vital that the government help reverse this thinking in order to ensure the sustainability of our agricultural sector and our food security.

Business Process Outsourcing

The business process outsourcing industry has greatly contributed to the economy and provided an unprecedented number of jobs to the Filipino people. The “IT-BPO Roadmap 2011-2016: Driving Global Leadership” formulated by the Business Processing Association of the Philippines stated that if the forecast will come true, the IT-BPO companies could employ up to 1.3 million Filipinos and generate 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

As the industry relies heavily on good Internet connection, the Binay administration will create a Department of Information and Communications Technology to help improve the country’s IT infrastructure and help grow the BPO sector further.

Tourism

The Philippines also needs to promote tourism as an economic driver. If tourist arrivals increase to 15 million by 2020, it will result in employing almost 10% of our population in tourism-related work and for the tourism sector to contribute 10% of our GDP. A Binay administration will develop, craft and implement a National Tourism Strategy that will link infrastructure development, support services and establishments, marketing and promotions plan, and development plans for tourism areas.

Manufacturing and export

There is a need for the manufacturing and export sector to become more competitive since the sector provides higher wages and absorbs more Filipino workers as compared to other sectors. A Binay presidency will focus on policies and reforms that will allow expansion of this sector by improving infrastructure and technology/logistics to lower costs of production, establish finance support programs for small- and medium-scale enterprises, streamline the bureaucratic process such as establishing one-stop shop, ensure affordable energy/power cost, continue to produce strong and highly-skilled workforce and encourage domestic linkages for raw materials.

To bolster these areas of development, it is essential that: (1) infrastructure development is made a priority; (2) increase fiscal space to benefit the businessmen and free the middle class; (3) streamline the bureaucracy; (4) adopt an energy policy conducive to growth; (5) leave business to the businessmen; (6) empower the local government units; (7) adopt policies that take into consideration issues on climate changes; and (8) a cooperative foreign policy.

Rody Duterte

Initiate measures to curb the present practice of contractualization.
Set higher coverage targets for the Social Security Systems, Philippine Health Insurance Corp. and Pag-ibig Fund.
Revitalize basic industries like steel to create raw materials for downstream industries that are job generating.
Prioritize agriculture and the processing of agricultural products to provide job and livelihood opportunities in the countryside, as

Rody Duterte

well as increase farm incomes, farmers and fishermen being among the poorest of our population.
Create the peaceful environment in the countryside to encourage investment beyond incentives.
Lower electricity costs by encouraging smart grids and small scale power generation to include household solar power generation.
By prioritizing agricultural development, coupled with transportation infrastructure to link farm production with their markets, we can ensure accessibility and affordability of food, which is the biggest part of average household expenditures.
Infrastructure gaps, whether in the countryside or in key urban centers, shall be prioritized and substantially filled, or at least initiated, during my term.
Grace Poe

Poverty Alleviation: Poverty Alleviation is our flagship economic strategy.
Pursue a context sensitive poverty alleviation strategy anchored on enterprise development, development of agriculture/agribusiness, manufacturing and tourism, human development, fair competition policy, political empowerment and participatory development, social security, direct assistance to the poor and asset building and reform.
Critical Infrastructure: Ensure that our infrastructure program is

Grace Poe

designed to be participative, collaborative and innovative.
Undertake a whole-of-government approach and tap the participation of private sector and civil society in making an assessment and evaluation of our existing infrastructure situation for a sounder national infrastructure plan
Review existing contracts, particularly in transport infrastructure, to terminate onerous agreements and contracts loaded with huge penalty payments and sovereign guarantees that short-change both the general public and taxpayers
Maximize three viable options in the development of key infrastructure projects: National Government Financing, Public-Private Partnerships and Office Development Assistance and ensure the wise and strategic use of these mechanisms.
Regional Competitiveness: The building blocks of national competitiveness are competitive regions. Our program to increase regional competitiveness is anchored on three pillars: 1) fostering a healthy local economy, 2) good local governance and 3) appropriate infrastructure.
Healthy Local Economy. Coupled with efforts to development enterprises, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) will be empowered to have full access to and become competitive in both regional and international markets by: (1) identifying markets and opportunities where their products and services are in demand, (2) upscaling the quality and compliance of their products to international standards, and (2) finding ways to move their goods and services to various markets at the least possible cost.
Good Local Governance. Establish an apex MSME agency to ensure the effective implementation of the integrated services system; Harmonize the efforts of both national agencies and local government units to make the support system—from access to finance to business mentoring—easily accessible to MSMEs.
Appropriate Infrastructure. National government agencies such as the Department of Transportation and Communications and Department of Public Works and Highways will work with regional and local government counterparts to ensure that infrastructure projects undergo correct procurement process and projects are awarded to contractors with track records in long-term maintenance.
Tax Environment: Design and implement a tax system that is simple, stable and certain.
Tax rate and bracketing reforms. Introduce two sets of reforms in our tax system:
Adjust income tax brackets taking into account inflation so that the cut-off for every tax bracket would be increased based on the amount of current prices to protect the purchasing power of the individual tax payer
Lower personal and corporate tax rates in a well-phased manner (annual) to be at par with our Asean neighbors
Tax administration. Improve tax collection rates of both the Bureau of Internal Revenue and Bureau of Customs from a moderate 1% to an aggressive 2% of the GDP by leveraging on full automation of tax filing and customs procedures through ICT to ensure maximum tax compliance.
Tax simplification. Re-engineer the tax filing process by minimizing the number of steps, requirements, forms and fees imposed by tax collection agencies. It takes around 36 payments and 193 hours to fully comply with tax obligations.
Investment Climate: Create an attractive, healthy, low-cost and predictable investment climate.
Increase level of cohesion between government, business groups and stakeholders in crafting and developing industry roadmaps to attract more investments in the country.
Investment promotions agencies such as the Bureau of International Trade Relations, Export Marketing Bureau and Foreign Trade Services Corps shall work with the Board of Investment to identify bottlenecks that cause foreign direct investment inflow fluctuation and align investment priority areas with industry roadmaps for a solid and time-bound action agenda.
Take careful but important steps to review and amend the economic provisions of the Constitution, particularly in industries that need more foreign investments—the primary and service sectors, mining, oil and gas industries while ensuring that support systems and adequate safety nets are in place to increase absorptive capacities of our local industries.

Mar Roxas

For the past five years, we’ve managed to sustain our growth numbers but efforts to do so were simultaneous with our anticorruption measures, which may have limited government spending at first. Nonetheless, we have managed to yield positive results and gained the confidence of the world from being the “sick man of Asia” to “Asia’s bright spot” by upholding the bedrock principles of Daang Matuwid: Transparency, rules-based

Mar Roxas

governance and a strong anticorruption foundation. To make for an environment that is even more conducive for social and economic development, we must ensure stability and predictability of policy outcomes.

Therefore, it follows that if we want to achieve more, we must continue on our path. The first five years of Daang Matuwid have allowed us to address the leakages in the system. Now that the pipelines have been sealed, the next years will be devoted to investing in our people by providing quality services such as education, trainings in diversified skills, infrastructure, and the creation of more and higher value jobs.

For example, we see agriculture as both an immense challenge and a lucrative opportunity that holds the key to our country’s development. We can revitalize our agricultural sector by consolidating the production of agricultural products in order to achieve efficiencies and economies of scale. In the process, we are insulating our farmers from vulnerabilities caused by natural calamities such as droughts and typhoons by treating them as employees with a monthly salary. Not only are we providing the farmers a safety net, we are also reducing their operational costs, making agriculture an efficient, profitable, and competitive venture for investors and job-seekers.

We also intend to see resurgence in the manufacturing industry by inducing competition in the power sector, which in turn will lower power costs and attract investments in industry. Jobs generated in the manufacturing sector can provide a stable source of income for Filipinos. By using our balance sheet to make capital more accessible to the people, we can also spur growth in local economies and unleash the energies of our micro, small and medium entrepreneurs.

All these deliberate efforts will be undertaken to ensure that the workforce can move higher in the value chain and that every Filipino family is given a fair chance to be free from hunger, free from fear, and free to dream.

Miriam Defensor-Santiago

I commit that the Philippine economy will grow faster than ever before, that it will be truly inclusive by making sure that real incomes of workers will increase over time. We will achieve the goal of higher and sustained economic growth by investing heavily in public infrastructure. Our roads, bridges, urban transit systems, airports and seaports are crumbling. We need to build them up at par with, if not better than, our Asean neighbors. We need to prepare our people for a more modern, more competitive global

Miriam Defensor Santiago

economy. We need to educate them, take care of their health, and feed them so they will become productive members of a growing work force. Only by investing in people can we truly make growth inclusive. Only if the young are educated and healthy can they benefit from growing economic prosperity. My administration will:

Modernize agriculture and make it more productive by:
Investing in productivity enhancing infrastructure to boost agriculture;
Investing in irrigation and water impounding facilities in order to allow more planting cycles and to minimize the impact of El Niño and La Niña;
Financing programs that would expand the use of new seed varieties and modern technology in order to increase farm yield; and
Investing in research and technology;
Reinvigorate manufacturing and reenergize exports by:
Implementing a more affordable and stable power supply;
Reducing cost of doing business in the Philippines;
Improving peace and order in farms and factories;
Creating national industries that can be marketed internationally, such as machinery and equipment for agriculture; and
Making the peso competitive relative to currencies of our competitors;
Improve the investment climate by:
Streamlining and harmonizing business process and licensing procedures;
Codifying and updating laws and issuances affecting customs and tariffs;
Enhancing trade facilitation measures;
Cutting red tape at the local government level;
Drastically reducing regulations at the Bureau of Customs and the regulatory bodies; and
Amending the restrictive provisions in the Philippine Constitution which have discouraged the entry of foreign investors into the country;
Reform the tax system by:
Adopting comprehensive income taxation and reducing maximum personal income tax rate from 32 percent to 25 percent;
Reducing the corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 30 percent to 25 percent;
Rationalizing fiscal incentives to partly offset the revenue loss from lowering the CIT rate;
Imposing a national real property tax (RPT) piggybacked on local RPT;
Abolishing the estate tax;
Abolishing tax on dividends; and
Gradually raising the value-added tax rate from 12 to 15 percent by 2019; and
Reduce unemployment and underemployement by:
Ending contractualization, which is an economic deprivation of life and security of person;
Creating national industries to increase job opportunities for skilled workers in the Philippines to prevent migration of workers; and
Creating more jobs per sector, especially in the science and technology, and infrastructure industry.

Mar Roxas 2 mini-attack ads – view them here

finally completed – these are the two (2) mini attack ads by Mar Roxas

this was the first one aired:

the emphatic ending of “higit sa lahat hindi ko kayo nanakawan” is an obvious reference to Jojo Binay.

 

this is the second one:

Roxas says:

• “walang drama” – refers to Grace Poe and her dramatics
• “hindi ako paawa” – refers to Jojo Binay
• “hindi ako siga-siga: – refers to Rody Duterte
• “hindi run ako abusado” – most probably refers to Jojo Binay
• “at hindi ako magnanakaw” – definitely refers to Jojo Binay

we think Binay had the most mention, 3 mentions out of 5 because he is #1 in he presidentiables survey. Poe and Duterte got one mention each because they are the other two contenders. Santiago did not get any mention because she is even lower than Roxas at the surveys.

what do you think of these ads? let us know by posting your comments here.

 

will Grace Poe lose when her SET case goes to the SC?

the SET (Senate Electoral Tribunal) has voted not to disqualify Grace Poe with a 5 – 4  vote with the 5 voting not to disqualify Poe. the 5 votes are from senators Aquino, Sotto, Legarda, Villar and Cayetano. the 4  who voted for disqualification came from the 3 SC justices who are members of the SET and senator Nancy Binay. the SC justices are Carpio, Brion and de Castro.

her disqualification case will surely reach the SC no matter what the final decision is at the SET. when that happens, will she lose at the SC case given what the SC justices decided who are members of the SET?

in recent days, copies of the explanations from the SC justices have been released. we have here the explanation from Carpio and de Castro. the two justices voted on the basis of law, their reading of the constitution and what they mean.

—

Justice de Castro: Poe’s citizenship claim constitutionally objectionable November 22, 2015 10:54am

Senate Electoral Tribunal member Associate Justice Teresita de Castro maintains that presidential aspirant Senator Grace Poe’s citizenship claim is constitutionally objectionable.

In her separate dissenting opinion released days after the SET voted 5-4, junking the petition against Poe over citizenship issue, de Castro said the respondent based her claim only on “generally accepted principle of international law that stemmed from a theory of incorporation … but not on the constitution.”

She said Poe claimed to be a natural-born citizen, with a Filipino father or mother, on the basis of “a supposed legal fiction which will run afoul of the concept of natural-born citizenship under the 1935 Constitution…”

The 1935 Constitution—still in effect when Poe was born in 1968—follows the principle of jus Sanguinis” or natural-born citizenship based on blood relationship to a Filipino father or Filipino mother.

De Castro said that Poe anchored her claim of being a natural-born on international conventions such as the the 1930 Hague Convention on Certain Questions relating to the Conflict of Nationality Laws and the 1961 Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness.

These conventions particularly provide for the right of a child to nationality.

But de Castro said the conventions are not self-executing as they are not binding because the contracting state is free to determine the international agreements’ application based on national laws.

Besides, she said the Philippines has not ratified the 1930 and the 1961 conventions.

Moreover, de Castro wrote: “Even then, the citizenship, if acquired by virtue of such conventions, assuming the latter are implemented by Philippine law, is akin to the citizenship falling under the Section 1(4), Article IV of the 1987 Constitution, recognizing citizenship by naturalization in accordance with law or by a special act of Congress.”

“The definition of a natural-born citizen, under Section 2, Article IV of the 1987 Constitution, cannot be met by a foundling even if the disputable presumption is applied because before the said presumption can operate, the fact of being a foundling must first be established by a legal proceeding, as illustrated by Section 5 of R.A. No. 8552, and Sections 4, 5 and 8 of R.A. 9523, which require an official declaration tha the child is a foundling or an abandoned child before he/she can be entitled to the rights of a Filipino child under the aforesaid laws,” she added.

– See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/545348/news/nation/justice-de-castro-poe-s-citizenship-claim-constitutionally-objectionable#sthash.RbhJNkyB.dpuf

—-

Carpio: Poe is Filipino but not natural-born
November 21, 2015 8:27pm
By JOSEPH MORONG, GMA News
Presidential aspirant Senator Grace Poe is a Filipino but not a natural-born one, Senate Electoral Tribunal chairman Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said.

In his dissenting opinion released four days after the SET voted 5-4, junking the petition of Rizalito David against Poe over citizenship issue, Carpio said: “there is no dispute that respondent Mary Grace Poe Llamanzares is a Filipino citizen, as she publicly claims to be.”

“But [she] has failed to prove that she is a natural-born Filipino citizen, and is thus not qualified to sit as a member of the Senate of the Republic of the Philippines.”

This echoes the justice’s earlier pronouncement during the oral arguments at the SET that Poe is a naturalized Filipino citizen.

Carpio wrote that even the framers of the 1935 Constitution did not intend to consider foundlings in the Philippines natural-born citizens at birth.

Carpio pointed out that those who argued during the deliberation of the 1935 Constitution that international law principle recognized a foundling to be a citizen at birth of the country where the foundling were misplaced. This includes, former President Manuel Roxas.

“There is nothing in international law that which automatically grants citizenship to foundlings at birth. In fact, Delegate Roxas did not cite any international law principle to that effect,” Carpio said.

According to Carpio, only the 1930 The Hague Convention was in existence during the deliberations on the 1935 Constitution.

“Therefore, there was no prevailing customary international law at that time, as there is still none today, conferring automatically a nationality to foundlings at birth.”

Any international law conferring natural-born nationality to foundlings at birth runs contrary to the concept of jus sanguinis under the 1935 Constitution which requires blood relation to the father to establish the natural-born citizenship of a child, Carpio said.

He wrote: “The 1935 Constitution clearly required blood relations to the father to establish the natural-born citizenship of a child. The 1935 Constitution did not contain any provision expressly or impliedly granting Filipino citizenship to foundlings on the basis of birth in the Philippines (jus soli or law of the soil) with the presumption of Filipino parentage as to make them natural-born citizens.”

“Only those citizens at birth because of jus sanguinis, which requires blood relation to a parent, are natural-born Filipino citizens under the 1935, 1973, and 1987 Constitution,” he added

Citing deliberations on the 1935 Constitution, Carpio also pointed out that when it came to the discussion on the qualifications President and Vice President, delegate Roxas pointed out that “natural-born citizens, means a citizen by birth, a person who is a citizen by reason of birth, and not by naturalization or by a further declaration required by law for his citizenship.”

Citing delegate Roxas, Carpio wrote: “In the Philippines … under the provisions of the article on citizenship which we have approved, all those born of a father who is a Filipino citizen, be they persons born in the Philippines or outside, would be citizens by birth or ‘natural-born … According to this interpretation, the child of a Filipino mother with a foreign father would not be a citizen by birth, because the law or the Constitution requires that he make a further declaration after his birth.”

“In short, under the 1935 Constitution, only children whose fathers were Filipino citizens were natural-born Filipino citizens,” Carpio said.

He further said: “It is also the height of absurdity to presume that all foundlings found in the Philippines, by sole reason that their parentage is unknown, are not only Filipino citizens but also natural-born Filipino citizens. To illustrate, if in 1968, on the same day that respondent was found in a church in Jaro, Iloilo, three infants were also found in front of the Manila Cathedral in Intramuros, will all the three infants be considered natural-born Filipino citizens?”

Carpio said that it would lead to a “preposterous situation which could not have been intended by the framers of the 1935 Constitution.”

“If the first infant was an African black, the second a Caucasian white, and the third infant with Chinese features, would all three infants be automatically considered natural-born Filipino citizens with the conclusive presumption that their parents were Filipino citizens? … If at all the framers intended a strict interpretation of the term natural-born citizen, considering that they limited the term natural-born citizen to those who fathers were Filipino citizens and did not extend it to those who were born of Filipino mothers and alien fathers.”

Carpio also addressed the issue of the plight of foundlings if found not to be natural-born Filipinos as argued by Poe’s camp.

“The sentimental plea, however, conveniently forgets the expressed language of the Constitution reserving those high positions, in this case the position of Senator of the Republic, exclusively to natural-born Filipino citizens … being sworn to uphold and defend the Constitution, the members of this Tribunal have no other choice but to apply the clear letter and intent of the Constitution,” he said.

Carpio however added that Poe may still be declared a natural-born Filipino if she can find a match to a Filipino parent.

All three Supreme Court justices in the nine-member SET—Chairman Carpio, Associate Justice Teresita Leonardo-de Castro, and Associate Justice Arturo Brion have separte dissenting opinions on the SET ruling favoring Poe.

Four other cases of disqualification anchored on citizenship and residency issues are currently lodged with the Comelec.

A fifth disqualification case, an election offense case of misrepresentation, also filed by Rizalito David, is being heard by the Comelec Law Department. — LBG, GMA News

– See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/545323/news/nation/carpio-poe-is-filipino-but-not-natural-born#sthash.Hf2m1JgX.dpuf

2016 Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

Mar Roxas

Jejomar Binay

Miriam Defensor Santiago

Grace Poe

Rody Duterte

 

poll opened October 19, 2015
Rody Duterte added December 4, 2015

Roxas surges up, jumps from far 4th to tie declining Binay at 2nd – Pulse Asia

Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:

• Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
• Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
• Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
• the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
• of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
• in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined

just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.

we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.

the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.

Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.

aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.

the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president  is  the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.

the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.

that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.

as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.

Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.

with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed  against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.

Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.

it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.

when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points.  a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.

for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed.  for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.

based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.

are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?

 

 

 

 

triple whammy for Poe, Roxas & Binay in latest SWS survey, Roxas gains the most

Apparently there is a second survey for the presidentiables from SWS and this one puts presidenitables Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas practically on a there-way tie.

The survey was conducted Septemebr 2 to 5, 2105 and has the following ratings for the three presidentiables :

• Grace Poe : 26%
• Jemomar Binay : 24% (difference vs Poe – 2% points) 
• Mar Roxas : 20% (dofference vs Binay – 4% points)

(source : http://www.rappler.com/nation/politics/elections/2016/106788-sws-survey-breakdown-presidential-tie)

With a margin of error at +/- 3%, Poe and Binay are on a statistical tie while  Roxas  vs Binay with a difference of 4% points is statistically significant but  it being just shy by 1% point, that is considered a statistical tie.

unlike the other SWS survey which was an options survey (respondents were asked to name 3 candidates who can replace Aquino), this is a real elections survey where respondents were asked to identify only 1 candidate who they might vote as president if the elections were held during the time of the survey.

this survey gave a triple whammy to all three presdientiables Poe, Binay and Roxas.

1st whammy – this is the biggest whammy and it is for the benefit of Mar Roxas. mar roxas before this survey was a far third to Poe and Binay. roxas jumping to tie the front runners is a big jump for roxas. this mimics the same kind of giant improvement that Roxas got in the other SWS survey where he got a +18% point improvement catapulting him to 2nd position (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-1W0).

this shows Roxas is a legitimate contender in the election and is on an impressive increasing trend. the increasing trend will serve Roxas well as we move to the actual election in 2016, this means Roxas is building his support base at the same time the support base of Poe and Binay are not moving if not weakening.

2nd whammy – this one hurts Garce Poe. Poe in previous surveys showed she was way ahead of the others and was a clear leader. this survey with two of her rivals catching up with her shows she is not invincible. it says she can be beaten.

3rd whammy – this hurts Jejomar Binay. Binay used to be the runaway winner in the polls but his ratings have been suffering and was on a massive declining trend since the corruption and plunder charges have been exposed in the senate. Binay just getting  a tie with the two others means Binay has not arrested his declining trend and continue to suffer in the polls.

unless Binay changes things, like address the corruption and plunder charges against him, the declining trend will continue and his numbers will shrink significantly by election time. it is possible that the shrinkage will be big enough that the other leaders will overtake him.

Roxas’ ratings have gone up driven by the endorsement of President Aquino for his presidentiable run and Roxas’ declaring that he will continue Aquino’s “Daang Matuwid”. Aquino endorsed Roxas’ presidential run in an event held at Club Filipino on August 30, 2015. Roxas also ran ads almost the next day where he said he will continue Aquino’s “Dang Matuwid”.

Roxas has gained the momentum from this survey and will allow him to enlarge his support base.

Poe will need to work harder to get back her stellar number one position. Let us see if her numbers will improve on the next survey behind her announcement that she will run for president in an event that happened after this survey was conducted.

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Question On Methodology & Design For SWS :

we noticed that the two presidentiables surveys, the options survey and this election survey were run on the same time period. did that mean the questions for the these two separate surveys were in one questionnaire and both were asked of the respondents in the same sitting?

if so, was there no order bias in their answers? 

i would think there would be order bias and one or both of the answers of the respondents will be affected by the other. it would be difficult to accept the survey results if there was order bias. 

Mar Roxas to get boost from President Aquino’s rising popularity

Aquino satisfaction best since Q1 2014

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III hit its highest point in one-and-a-half years this quarter, fueled by significant improvements in most geographical areas except Mindanao and across socioeconomic classes except ABC, according to results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.

read more here : http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=aquino-satisfaction-best-since-q1-2014&id=115452

latest poll shows president aquino’s net satisfaction rating is on the rise, highest since Q1 2014 according to SWS as published at Business World. this confirms once again that president aquino is the country’s most popular president.

this rise in satisfaction rating comes at a great time for Mar Roxas who recently had announced he is running for president under the LP. this is a benefit to Roxas as Aquino has endorsed Roxas’ run for the presidency.

Roxas has declared he is ready for the presidency and accepts the challenge of continuing Aquino’s “daang matuwid” governance and the platform by which aquino won the election by a landslide.

the “daang matuwid” and aquino’s rising popularity is in contrast to the continuing unanswered graft and corruption charges against Roxas’ main rival for the presidency VP Jejomar Binay.

Roxas is a far third in the latest polls although he has recovered significantly in the latest poll from the previous. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas may give Roxas the push to challenge the leader Poe and the previous leader Binay. Poe now leads the polls, followed by Binay and Roxas at third.

the latest presdientiables surveys will be released soon, lets see how this all plays out for Roxas.

Mar Roxas is back, not dead & out – June 2015 Pulse Asia survey

just when things are heating up in the pre-2016 election campaign and new stars are emerging, Grace Poe and Duterte, based on the most recent Pulse Asia survey, Mar Roxas comes out as still alive and not yet down and out as others have been saying or as others are wishing.

 

Roxas in the last Pulse Asia survey shows a magnificent gain of +6% points, now at 10% from his previous 4%. he more than doubled his rating. Roxas is  now a strong 4th. he is back to his previous rating of low double digit numbers.

this rating shows he is definitely not out of the presidentiables race. what would be interesting for him is his rating in the next survey. if Roxas sustains the double digit rating and specially if he gains, then we can say he has recovered and reversed the trend to an uptrend.

so much attention has been given to Grace Poe’s rating while very little has been given to roxas. we’re not saying the attention given to Poe is undeserving because it is. Poe over taking the previous poll leader Binay is a great achievement and worth the praise and attention.

but looking at the numbers  – there are only two presidentiables who have gotten significant gains in this Pulse Asia survey – Poe is one of them, +16% points which is astronomical and the other is Roxas which is a +6% points. the increase in number for Roxas may not look much, a +6% points but it actually is considering where he was before just a 4% rating. Roxas more than doubled his rating in the latest survey. a number that is being doubled is very, very impressive even if it is a small base.

Duterte also gained, a +3% points to 15% from the previous 12% but that is not statistically different with the +/- 3 margin of error. statistically speaking, Duterte has not gained anything.

what is even more interesting is that both Poe and Roxas gained. one did not gain at the expense of the other. that is a good sign. it means each one has its own base support and they are gaining from non-admin candidates. this of course can change in the coming surveys but for now, the numbers are looking good for both of them.

the election is months away and except for Binay, the candidates have not officially declared themselves as candidates. time is on the side of Roxas. he has a lot of time to build his coalitions and support base. there are still a lot that he can do.

but what are these things that he can do? that is another topic on another time.

 

 

 

Pulse Asia March 2014 presidentiables survey : don’t panic, it’s only 2014

one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate the respondents will vote if the election was held today.

that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.

and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.

people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period.  more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.

these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.

for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)

we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.

grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.

vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.

mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.

chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.

we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.

how should the candidates proceed from this?

• take the results with a mountain of salt
• need to monitor developments
• candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
• common denominators should be pulled out
• from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
• conduct research based on these results

we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.

both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

• 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
• 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
• 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
• adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
• only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.