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prosecution in corona trial needs a superman to do the closing to win the case

March 5, 2012 Leave a comment

the corona impeachment trial has become a telenovela played out on national tv like an afternoon soap but unlike the telenovelas, this one has stopped taking twists and turns, it has in fact been on a single track – a daily watch of what new blunder the prosecution has been up to this time and who among the senator jurors will be giving the prosecution a lecture on their errors and shortcomings. the usual suspects are senator juan pnce enrile and senator miriam defensor santiago and on occasion the defense lead counsel, serafin cuevas.

this took a bizarre, almost  cataclysmic proportion when senator jinggoy estrada  calls out private prosecutor vitaliano aguirre for covering his ears the whole time senator santiago was giving a first class lecture on the prosecuti0n’s latest blunder of the day.

this could have been just another day for the prosecution but senator santiago was particularly volcanic on this day that we were glued to our seat, with cell phone on hand ready to dial emergency 911 to call for an ambulance to go to the senate  just in case senator santiago had a heart attack.

the irony of it all was on this day the prosecution has rested it’s case. in other words senator santiago’s near heart attack volcanic anger and attorney aguirre’s comic or is it cosmic cover-the-ears antic will be the last image, audio and memory the prosecution will be leaving not only in  the minds of the  public but more importantly in the senator jurors’.

for the record, we had called for the replacement of the prosecution team in this trial almost from the very start. although we began  calling for the replacement of congressman neil tupas as lead prosecutor, it became clear to us that most of the members of the prosecution team were also showing incompetence. this incident with aguirre is just an exclamation point to the many that we have seen in the course of the trial.

the prosecution has closed their presentation. unfortunately, they were not able to close on a high note but on a  note of infamy with the image of attorney aguirre’s hands covering his ears.

is it all lost for the prosecution? well, legally speaking, no not yet. the defense still has to present their evidence and counter evidence. even before that step, the prosecution still has to make a formal offer on the evidence that will be accepted by the court. so far what has been done was the evidence has been marked only. there will of course be a legal battle royal when the prosecution does this. it is expected that the defense will obeject to each and every evidence that has been marked.

we do not how this will go and equally important how the defense will do when it is their thing on the court. for all we know it could be as horrible or wosrt for the defense.

while these questions are still to be answered, it is prudent for the prosecution to assume the worst for themselves. based on current trends in the court, the prosecution need to assume they will be at a great disadvantage by closing time.

we think the prosecution’s closing will be most crucial for them., the closing argument is in essence the summary of their case against corona. not only is it the summary but the closing is supposed to be the most persuasive for them. the idea is that this closing will be the last push to get senator jurors to see the guilt of corona and for them to vote to impeach corona.

for this closing, we think the prosecution need to do the following:

  • they don;t just need a lawyer who will do the closing, they need superman to do it for them.. not even clark kent will do, they need superman himself, in his tights, a letter “S” on his chest and a red cape doing the closing.
  • they need attorney superman in his most persuasive and in his clearest and sharpest because the prosecution attorneys on their own have muddled the issues in the case.
  • the prosecution attorneys have drawn so much attention to everything and anything not related to the case or the evidence needed to convict corona that attorney superman will need to blind the senator jurors to these and get them to just focus on the real evidence that they have presented and just convict corona.
  • attorney superman must deliver superhuman logic, superhuman persuasiveness and superhuman clarity.
  • we do not know how the tights and cape will do but this attorney superman need to be well respected by the senator jurors, someone the senator jurors see as at least equal to them in stature if not greater. if they can get john f kennedy or ronald reagan to wear a superman costume, that will do it for sure.
  • the closing speech of the prosecution SHOULD NOT mention the word and the thought “technicality”. mentioning this will just be whining and will not sit well with the senator jurors. sure, the defense has used technicalities every half step of the way, but it is what defense lawyers do, complaining about technicalities will only insult the intelligence fo the senator jurors.
  • the prosecution closing  should completely ignore their stupidity and errors and not mention any of it.  they should all be in denial and hope the senator juroirs do not remember any of it.
  • the closing speech should overcome and actually exploit and turn the  lead defense attorney serafin cuevas’ obsession with lectures to their advantage and a negative for the defense. for sure, attorney cuevas will deliver a lecture in his closing. a lecture is in his DNA, it is unavoidable for him. knowing cuevas will go into a lecture should be turned into an advantage by the prosecution.
  • as peg, the prosecution team should frame the quality of the closing speech and the attorney superman as convincing senator miriam defensor santiago. the speech writer should  write the speech thinking that this is his goal – to write a speech that will convince santiago. discovering the magic formula on that will make them win the case.

is it impossible? no, we do not think so. we have defined here very specific goals and needs. all that the prosecution need to do is deliver on these. they have a lot of time to get it right, around 4 to 5 weeks. but they should start preparing for the close now.

what the prosecution team needs to do is to be more creative and be very goal obsessed. here is a suggestion on the creativity part – they can stay closer to home and just get ninoy aquino or ferdinand marcos to deliver the closing speech, they are two of the country’s top orators and communicators. that is easy-peasy.

filipinos understand what “heroism” is in 9 out of 10, fails in 1

April 10, 2011 Leave a comment

SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)

SWS survey

SWS survey detail

8 April 2011

First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes

Social Weather Stations

Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.

The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” [“Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons.”]

To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].

They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).

Read more…

the kris aquino drama – to leave The Buzz TV show?

March 16, 2010 9 comments

kris aquino is in tears on this one. she is in her most plain hairstyle, simple clothes,  simple make up and we see the tears and the pain that kris is going through as kris aquino the popular tv host, daughter of ninoy and cory aquino and now the sister of noynoy aquino, the presidentiable.

is it election time or is it awards night for acting?

MANILA, Philippines – Kris Aquino, the youngest sister of presidential aspirant Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, on Sunday turned emotional as she defended herself from constant criticisms thrown at her ever since the election fever began.

Apparently fed up from always being the target of harsh comments, Kris disclosed that she even contemplated of leaving entertainment talk show “The Buzz.”

The host, whose personal life has always been a subject of scrutiny and is said to be a liability to Noynoy’s candidacy, said she consulted her 3 female siblings – Ballsy Aquino-Cruz, Viel Aquino-Dee, Pinky Aquino-Abellada – about her plan since it should be a “family decision.”

She said she excluded Noynoy because her brother is not used to the world of show business.

“Sinabi ko sa mga kapatid ko, tao lang ako talaga. And I said this election parang lahat ng kagalit ni ‘Noy kung may kailangang pintasan, ako parati. Tapos sinabi ko kay Ate parang mababaliw na ako kasi mababasa mo na parang ikaw na ang pinakawalanghiyang tao sa mundo,” she said.

“Ginagalang ko ang pagka-presidente dahil alam ko kung ano ang sinakripisyo ng tatay ko at nanay ko para magkaroon tayo ng demokrasya,” said the youngest daughter of former president Corazon Aquino and Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.

read more here: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/entertainment/03/14/10/kris-aquino-says-fed-constant-criticisms

noynoy aquino’s “kayo ang aking lakas” tv ad – arguing with success or with boredom?

March 13, 2010 3 comments

who can argue with success? these are all very familiar images for most we have seen them on tv and for some we were there when these things happened but for all we re-experienced it all of it again recently when cory aquino died and we were all out on the streets saying good-bye to cory.

(click here : http://1millionprayers.wordpress.com/)

these images did something to us and we can;t escape the fact that noynoy aquino and his presidential bid sprang it. to a few they were not conscious of it but for most we asked noynoy to run for president.

seeing these images and hearing these words are difficult to argue with. they are already embedded in our hearts and minds and this ad serves to remind us that they exist there.

we have a nasty suspicion that this ad was developed as a direct answer to manny villar’s emotional ads of his brother dieing because they had no money to buy medicine for him. that villar ad in the minds of the admen in the aquino camp must have thought villar’s tv ad was soliciting empathy with the voters. their answer is to “out-empathize” villar by reminding people about two, not one emotional event in noynoy’s life – noynoy’s dad was assassinated and his mom got sick and died in front of us.

that thought this ad being a direct answer to villar’s emotional tv ad  immeditaely came to us after hearing the first sentence noynoy said in this ad –  “Kami rin inapi nang walang kalaban-laban.”. a few bells rang in our mind when he started the sentence with “kami rin”. question – sino yung ibang inapi? answer – villar when his brother died without the benefit of medicines.

that thinking must have brought goose bumps to the creative team who thought about it but we think it’s really amateurish thinking on their part. it is also quite a cheap trick to do. they will not win any award soon on strategic thinking on this one.  we do not think it will even be nominated for “The Strategic Thinking Award Of The Year”.

will it be effective? that is the question that is even more difficult to answer. from the point of view of getting more votes for noynoy, i think it will to some degree but i do not think it will be of much significance.

whether the aquino campaign knows it or not, noynoy’s campaign has moved away from these messages and strategy. if it was not conscious of the move, his competitors, most specially manny villar who is co-front runner made sure of that.

this we think is a very good tactical ad but we do not think this has legs to be the main brandsell advertising for the aquino campaign. putting this as the main brandsell tv ad we think is a major strategic blunder by the aquino campaign.

weak, poor and failed strategic thinking is what we think is the greatest weakness of the aquino presidential campaign. that is most obvious in the waste they allowed to be made when from a high of 60% in preference to the 47% in presidential choice, aquino’s ratings had consistently gone down seeing it now on a statistical tie with manny villar.

that alone tells the weakness in strategic planning for the campaign for squandering such a huge lead over his rivals. the aquino campaign group was given on a silver platter a brilliant and superior product to sell but they did not know what to do with it and lost the leadership.

the ads are creative and well done. the writing is close to crisp and almost memorable and the production values are excellent but the strategic thinking is where they fail. the strategy laid down seems to look at just ads, almost as stand alone ads when they are supposed to be running a campaign with a beginning, a middle and an end. there is no continuity in strategic thinking nor is there any worth in it.

they fall in love with creative executions and get stuck there, completely forgetting that ads and most specially campaigns that succeed are those that begin with a brilliant strategy and heads up thinking.

we do not know what is next to this ad but we hope there will be more . we hope this is just a tactical ad and that we will see the main thematic or brandsell very soon. running tv ads will not make them win, it is running an ad campaign that will.

the key questi0n – who can argue with success or are we arguing with boredom? 

~~  a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~

 

ps: a note on production values : the director should have seen that noynoy’s brows are forming at the center of his forehead making it look like noynoy is angry while the emotion in this ad should have been serenity,  sincerity and concern.

the euphoria noynoy enjoys that puno says is a bad thing – belat!

September 24, 2009 6 comments

we are amused to no end on secretary ronaldo puno’s recent pronouncements on noynoy aquino’s campaign. 

A word on the euphoria … those things are not enough to win an election. You will have to deal with the issues that the people are concerned about. Those have to be dealt with over a long period,” Puno told the Manila Overseas Press Club (MOPC) on Tuesday night at Hotel Intercon in Makati City.

lets get real here — “euphoria”  shown by the public on day 1 that a candidate announces his candidacy is EVERY CANDIDATE’S DREAM to have. it is in fact an excellent, even brilliant way to start a campaign. it is what campaign managers and marketing people want and plan for. 

having euphoria early on sets the candidate at a very high staging point for the next things to follow. equally important, it places the candidate above the competition and in fact sets the bar or price of entry for all other opponents at a very steep place. a campaign that starts at that very high level means it has a strong foundation for future moves and makes it difficult for competition. 

similar to a political campaign, any marketing and advertising practitioner plans for generating excitement and interest at the very start of a product launch.  in marketing how you start the campaign matters a lot. a good start launch helps ensure a successful end year. it is at that point where you get momentum, not attaining one usually spells disaster, getting it too late will not matter but getting it at the very start is brilliant.

compare aquino’s start to that of LAKAS-KAMPI’S gilbert  teodoro. he did not even get anywhere close to anything euphoric, much less close to what aquino enjoyed. teodoro got headline and top page  news coverage at most for 2 days after his formal declaration. aquino on the other hand has been getting headline news for many days after his declaration of candidacy and in fact got headline coverage many days before the actual announcement.

not only did aquino get media coverage because of the euphoria he enjoyed at the start, it also got his followers and the general public excited and rooting for aquino. almost overnight,  individuals and groups formed to do their share of supporting the candidacy of aquino all of it without being asked by aquino or anyone else. all were voluntary.  the latter part is the most important part – grass roots people involvement.  no other candidate enjoys that benefit and strength now.  

aquino got a lot of other positives from his euphoric start. teodoro on the other hand not only did not get any euphoria, he even got problems instead, one of which is arroyo cabinet members and officials defecting to the  aquino camp. on top of the problem of defection, DOUBTS and INSECURITIES started to crop up among the public and even among their own party members on the viability of teodoro’s candidacy. many more negatives came out of the non-euphoric start of tedoro’s campaign, an exact opposite of what aquino enjoyed.

the aim of political campaign managers and marketing managers is not only to attain euphoria at the start but also to sustain it till the end. keeping that feeling as high possible till election time helps ensure winning the election at the end of the campaign period.

puno is not being honest as  the master strategist who put 3 presidents into office when he belittled euphoria at start of the noynoy’s political campaign. he knows its a great thing but is not honest enough to admit it only because he belongs to the opposite camp. the only saving grace of puno is the use of the word “euphoria” to describe what has occurred after aquino declared his candidacy. it is the strongest word to use in describing it. at least he is honest in that he recognizes the extent of the positive reaction. it is a superlative.  

there is a very simple way to explain why euphoria is great to get at the start – aquino started with many good things, happy news,  all positives with enthusiastic supporters because of the euphoria he obtained. teodoro on the other hand because of the lack of euphoria at the start now need to put off fires that erupted everywhere – the defections, the doubts, insecurity and negativity that sprung up when he announced his candidacy.

we understand though why puno needed to be dishonest by belittling euphoria – not only did teodoro, his partner in this election not get anything near it, he himself did not get it. the most immediate aftermath of  his declaration as vice presidential candidate was – nothing. well not really nothing,  his party-mates very publicly said the party should consider another party-mate for the vp position – governor vilma santos. nobody celebrated, not at all euphoric in him getting the vp slot, it was instead greeted by an idea to replace him.

his views on why euphoria is a bad thing, one word comes to mind – BELAT!

 

ronaldo puno mr. euphoria

Mr. Euphoria

Puno: Aquino euphoria not enough to win 
 By Alcuin Papa, Jhunnex Napallacan
Philippine Daily Inquirer, Inquirer Visayas
First Posted 03:43:00 09/24/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Take it from the man touted to be the architect of the electoral victory of three Philippine presidents since 1992.

Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno said euphoria may not be enough to win elections, referring to the chances of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the 2010 elections.

Puno said that from experience, euphoria from the commemoration last month of the 26th death anniversary of Noynoy’s father Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. and the passing away of former President Corazon “Cory” Aquino would not last until Election Day.

Read more…

sec. alberto romulo supports aquino – a major blow to LAKAS-KAMPI and teodoro

September 22, 2009 1 comment

Romulo favors Aquino
But Malacañang tells execs: ‘Toe the line’

By Christian V. Esguerra, Leila Salaverria, Inquirer Southern Luzon
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:48:00 09/22/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Malacañang Monday served notice to its troops to “toe the line” after Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo—one of its most senior Cabinet officials—broadly indicated his support for Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, the Liberal Party’s standard-bearer in the 2010 presidential election.

News that Romulo was favoring the senator came the same day that another administration official—Commissioner Jaime Jacob of the Presidential Anti-Graft Commission (PAGC)—announced he was resigning his post in order to support the presidential bid of the late former President Corazon Aquino’s only son.

Jacob’s resignation was the latest sign of cracks in the facade of administration unity and came just two months before the official start of the campaign for the May 2010 national elections.

Romulo was in London accompanying no less than President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo herself in her three-nation foreign trip when he indicated in an interview with an ABS-CBN correspondent where his heart lay.

“In 2007, I voted for Noynoy Aquino [for senator], so my ties with the Aquino family have been deep and lasting,” Romulo said in the interview. “I’ve always been with Tita Cory and voted for the Aquinos.”

Asked if he would support Noynoy, Romulo answered: “I have voted for the Aquinos all the time.”

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090922-226363/Romulo-favors-Aquino

 

romulo declaring he is supporting noynoy aquino and not gilbert teodoro, LAKAS-KAMPI and admin presidential candidate is a major blow and embarrassment to the administration and teodoro’s candidacy.

it is not as much as number of votes as romulo is not a politician nor do we think he has a political base but it is a huge psychological and morale disaster for the administration party. romulo is a senior official of the arroyo administration.

PDI SEPT 22 wawam _ romulowhat makes this more telling is that he is not the only one who is moving away from the administration and ruling party.

vice president noli de castro was the first major political figure who did that. de castro though he ran as an independent during the election is still part of the arroyo administration.

he was courted ardently by arroyo herself to be the standard bearer of the party, so much as saying he is the anointed one, but de castro declined to be part of it.

add to that the fact that de castro has been consistently one of the leaders in the presidentiable polls making him the most viable candidate among admin/ruling party affiliated presidentiables. that underscores the magnitude of de castro’s refusal to join the ruling party.

another arroyo administration official, Commissioner Jaime Jacob of the Presidential Anti-Graft Commission (PAGC) has announced his resignation from his post to campaign for aquino.

for these defections, if you can call it that, to the aquino camp is happening too soon. the campaign period has not even began yet with many blanks still open among the political parties. these things usually occur towards the end of the campaign period.

for it to occur this early is definitely bad news for the ruling/admin party. it is starting too early and can create a snow-ball effect. more admin officials and ruling party members might follow romulo and jacob’s lead and that will mean the admin/ruling party’s campaign for the presidency might collapse even before it starts or right after it starts.

philippine politicians are known to shift their alliances to the team that has the most likelihood of winning regardless of stand or principles. the shift might be seen by them as a major crack and a significant weakness giving the ruling/admin party as the losing political party.

if this happens, the ruling and admin party is again another inch moved towards the margins of philippine political life.

megastar sharon cuneta to campaign for aquino-roxas

September 21, 2009 5 comments

this is a major development and pledge. it’s strong enough that kris aquino and korina sanchez are there to campaign for the aquino-roxas tandem, adding megastar sharon cuneta to the list is, well pretty mega.

the aquino-roxas tandem has the potential to bring in a very wide crowd to their cause. they will not only attract people from across the board, they will more importantly attract the young.

Sharon Cuneta to campaign for Aquino, Roxas 
 By Edson C. Tandoc Jr.
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 17:11:00 09/21/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Count the Megastar in.

Declaring full support for the presidential bid of Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and his running mate Senator Mar Roxas, Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan on Monday said he and his wife, popular actress Sharon Cuneta, would actively campaign for the Liberal Party’s tandem.

“We have discussed about it and she will be helping in the campaign,” Pangilinan said when he attended Roxas’ announcement in San Juan City where Roxas formally accepted Aquino’s offer to be his running mate.

Cuneta is a fresh addition to the growing number of celebrities expected to join the Aquino-Roxas campaign.

Campaign manager Florencio “Butch” Abad said Aquino’s sister Kris would be bringing in many of her friends from the entertainment industry while Roxas’ girlfriend Korina Sanchez “is also actively campaigning.”

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20090921-226290/Sharon-Cuneta-to-campaign-for-Aquino-Roxas

it is noynoy-mar in 2010 – the timing of the announcement is impecable. excellent marketing 101!

September 20, 2009 Leave a comment

they will announce it tomorrow – it will be noynoy aquino for president and mar roxas for vice president. we have known about that of course for a sometime already. we were just waiting for the formal announcement.

the timing of the announcement is impeccable. gilbert teodoro, the ruling party standard bearer of LAKAS-KAMPI was declared this week. tomorrow’s announcement of the aquino-roxas will take the thunder out from the teodoro announcement. teodoro has been in the headlines in the past days. tomorrow’s aquino-roxas announcement will remove teodoro out of the headlines and bring noynoy back.

roxas can become a great partner to aquino. roxas’ announcement of withdrawing his bid for the presidency in favor of noynoy was a stroke of genius that revived roxas. he became the darling among the presidentiables when he did that. it was a sacrifice appreciated and admired by many.

roxas has been one of the most vocal among the presidentiables. he was sure he was running for it from the very beginning. his withdrawal citing sacrifice as the reason reversed  roxas’ “senator putang ina” image that we think killed him.

this development will only enliven and heighten the interest in the coming election.

read PDI story here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090919-226019/Its-Noynoy-Mar-for-2010

Noynoy Aquino makes his first major tactical blunder

September 16, 2009 13 comments

we think making a big deal of the most recent SWS presidentiables poll conducted in Luzon (sponsored by former senator osmena) is a major tactical blunder on the part of noynoy aquino. the smart thing to do would have been to be humble and aggressively downplay it.

going in we have problems with that survey. we think it’s garbage data. (click here to read about the Luzon Osmena-sponsored SWS Luzon survey:  http://wp.me/pnw03-FV)

over and above the question on the design and therefore the value of that survey, the tactical blunder will be made obvious on what comes next.

SWS and Pulse Asia conducts on a regular basis their own and separate presidentiables survey. they have been doing these polls for a long time already. we think results from these surveys are very reliable.

the major tactical blunder is that with noynoy making a big deal of the very high results (rating of 50%) within the  limited Luzon survey (sponsored by former senator osmena), he has  set himself  up for failure when the regular quarterly presidential polls conducted by SWS and Pulse Asia are conducted and released.

we do not think noynoy will get the same 50% rating in these polls. it will be a miracle if he does, or even come close to it. we think noynoy might get a 2 digit rating but we do not think it will be more than 13%.

in the last Pulse Asia poll conducted in August,  (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-B4) there were 5 presidentiables  who got double digit ratings – villar(25%), estrada (19%), de castro (12%), escudero  and roxas (11%) in that order.

the ratings are flatter for the simple reason that the presidentiable choices are too many. we do not think noynoy will be able to even match villar’s 25%. roxas who was fifth and got a double digit rating who has now withdrawn his candidacy will still get preferences. it will not be as high as 11% but it will not be zero. it is also improbable that those who voted for roxas will automatically vote for aquino.

for noynoy to get a 50% rating or even a 25% rating, he will need to get a huge number, in fact massive number of switchers from these presidentiables which  is just impossible at this point in time. massive shifts only occur if a major almost cataclysmic change occur among the presidentiables. announcing you are a presidentiable is not cataclysmic in magnitude.

aside from the mind dynamics of  choices that voters go through, the survey design of the Luzon Osmena-sponsored Survey is very different from that of the regular quarterly surveys that Pulse Asia and SWS conducts. in fact i have pointed out that the design of the Luzon Osmena-sponsored survey is a faulty one that renders it as garbage data.

one of its fault is that the design is biased to producing very high scores compared to the regular quarterly surveys. the Luzon Osmena-sponsored survey asks respondents to choose among a specified list of presidentiables while the SWS and Pulse Asia surveys does not. it is open-ended, you name whoever you want.

you can mention any name, thus making distribution of the data highly scattered in effect making the ratings much lower for each candidate. it does not for example exclude respondents from naming roxas or panlilio both of whom have withdrawn. 

the tactical blunder is that with noynoy making a big deal about the very high 50% rating that he got in the Luzon Osmena-sponsored luzon SWS survey and the expected much lower rating he will get during the regular SWS survey Pulse Asia and SWS does, it will make it look like noynoy’s popularity has suffered a major set-back.

from 50% to at most 13% looks like it is a massive drop in popularity. playing the numbers game with these things is always a very dangerous thing to do. in fact regardless of the numbers, if aquino does not hit the top 2 in the regular quarterly ratings, it may be played up as some kind of a weakness if not a failure.

the tactical blunder is that aquino has inadvertently set up his audience and supporters for disappointment. he may have set the bar of expectations way too high.

political campaigns is very much about image building. building an image of being a winner is certainly one of the things you want to have. you want to nurture an image of momentum if not greatness or at least always being on the right thing.

the safest and smartest approach is always to downplay achievements, or hit the lower side so that there is an automatic claim of success. raising the bar too high is a very dangerous thing as it does not leave room for failure which is what aquino has done.

Memo To: presidential spokespersons – shut the fuck up! you just admitted arroyo is evil and a failure

September 15, 2009 4 comments

Dear Presidential Spokesperson,

We have one sentence for you – SHUT THE FUCK UP!

We are absolutely shocked to read the September 11 news article by PDI when it had the sub-headline “GMA men: 2010 not a battle of  good vs evil

My first reaction to that was – what the hell are you freaking doing? That statement alone means Malacanang through the presidential spokesperson Gary Olivar sees that in the 2010 election, there is a faction who is “good” and there is a faction who is “evil”.

Rewind to just a few months ago and we remember the famous words of Secretary Romulo Neri – “GMA is evil.”  Ding! Ding! Ding! Was Olivar referring to the president he serves as the “evil one”?

If Olivar thought that, why did you have to  say it? Would it not have been best to just leave that tiny detail out? Must you say it?

Well, okay, Olivar may not actually have said those words but the implication was very clear and what may may have been inadvertently said without meaning to.

This is what Olivar said:

“Don’t run (at the expense) of this little lady who’s done her best for this country in the last eight years. Magpakalalaki naman kayo (Be a man),” Gary Olivar, deputy presidential spokesperson, said at a briefing.

In announcing his candidacy, Aquino on Wednesday criticized Ms Arroyo, his former economics professor at Ateneo de Manila University, for “forgetting what she had taught me.” He promised a more efficient use of government resources should he win in 2010.

Olivar blasted Aquino and other presidential hopefuls from the opposition for supposedly turning the presidential race into a battle of “good versus evil.”

“Nobody has the monopoly of right and wrong on either side right?” he said in Filipino.

By inference, that says Olivar is bewailing the perception that his boss’ “best” is not enough for the people.

The words “good versus evil” in that article is a direct quote, followed by an explanation that nobody has a a monopoly of “right and wrong”. Those by implication admits Olivar is thinking the “evil” one and the one who has a monopoly of doing  “wrong” is  his boss, President Arroyo.

Ding! Ding! Ding!  Did you really have to say that?

 Again, we think it is absolute incompetence to admit even through a very strong inference that your boss, the president is evil, has not done good things and does the wrong things. Keep those things to yourself and say only good things about your boss.

Once again, the staff of President Arroyo screwed up. Why must you say things about other presidentiables? Arroyo is not running for president. No need to say anything. Let Aquino and all the other presidentiables be.

One sentence : SHUT THE FUCK UP!

 

Sincerely yours,

~wawam~

aquino gets 50% in SWS september 2009 poll in NCR – not a view of what is next to come, it is garbage data

September 13, 2009 4 comments

it’s a strange survey. it is strange in many ways –  in the choices of the areas and the listing of presidentiables , only the major candidates are listed and does not include the laggards. we also can’t figure out the reasons for the choices of  the areas.

the strangest thing about this survey is the timing of the research – a few days after roxas announced his withdrawal from the race and a few days before aquino’s announcement. it is strange as that period is one of very heightened emotions and interest on aquino. it is not surprising that aquino got very high scores. too much of  an unnatural advantage for aquino.

we disagree with the article when it said it is “a good gauge of the competitiveness” of aquino. we will not put it as “competitiveness” but perhaps just interest on noynoy’s candidacy. what we see is that aquino’s presidential run has enlivened the presidential race.  it had caught a lot of attention and the public were riveted to the then on-going drama. that may have put a lot of interest on aquino and in turn has caused his doing very well in the survey.

we doubt if this same interest can be sustained for a long period of time.  we do not think its a good gauge of anything at all. it is garbage data, a waste of research money. this survey was conducted during a most unusual time, it will be foolish for anyone to take action or even to make any sensible conclusion coming from the research results.

sws presidentiables special survey

The survey was conducted September 5 to 6 in the National Capital Region (NCR), Pangasinan province, Region 3 (Central Luzon), and Region 4-A (portions of Southern Tagalog).

This two-day period was after presidential aspirant Sen. Manuel ‘Mar’ Roxas II withdrew from the race in favor of Aquino, his Liberal Party colleague, and just days before Aquino announced he would run for the presidency. Roxas backed out on September 1 while Aquino announced his bid on September 9.

The survey has a margin of error of plus/minus 3%.

Although not a nationwide survey, the results give a good gauge of the competitiveness of the son of the late former President Corazon Aquino vis-a-vis the early birds in the presidential race.

read in full here: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/09/13/09/50-prefer-noynoy-vote-rich-luzon-areas-sws-survey

noynoy aquino’s surge in 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll – “build it and they will come”

September 12, 2009 9 comments

there  is this famous line in the kevin costner movie, “Field Of Dreams” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_of_Dreams) where costner’s character is a farmer who decides to build a baseball field in his farm to use it as an attraction for people to go to so that his farm can stay financially solvent. while walking in the fields, he hears a voice “if you build it, he will come”. he refers to costner’s dad with whom he had a few unsettled issues. kostner builds the baseball field, settles the issues with his dad and as the voice said people from all over came to see the “field of dreams”

we wonder if that is what is happening to noynoy’s presidentialnoynoy aquino surge in poll candidacy. an aquino or much less noynoy as a presidential candidate was something nobody dreamed about. that was so until tita cory died and people started thinking of noynoy. even at the time when that was thought of, people were uncertain about noynoy. he took some time deciding and during that period of consideration, we did not really know how people will  react to noynoy.

but here we are, just 3 days since noynoy announced his candidacy and the poll in this blog shows noynoy gaining as of this writing an impressive 17%,  putting noynoy already tied at second place with escudero and past villar and fernando.

when noynoy built, did they start coming in?

are we being told here that all that noynoy did was announce his candidacy and people will on their own, even without the advertising spending that villar has been doing, people will come and support him?

certainly the media has given noynoy a lot of attention, in the past few days getting on front page news if not headline news. the administration’s attempt to discredit noynoy even before he [proclaimed to be a candidate seem to indicate they see him as front runner. it was premature on the part of the administration but that seemed to be the impression they are giving us.

this is the internet and the overwhelming support noynoy got in the pol in this blog mostly came from those with facebook accounts. that hardly represents the voter profile in the country but it we can’t stop thinking of the question and yes the possibility that as it has happened in this blog, they will also come out there in the real world.

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