both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results
there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.
SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:
- 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
- 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
- 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
- adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
- only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally
Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.
the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.
what does this all mean?
it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.
that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.
the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.
last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.
we came across an interesting website on twitter the other day (courtesy of @Simply_Clinton) – twitter audit (http://www.twitteraudit.com/). the website analyses a twitter account’s followers and determines what portion are “real” followers and what is “fake”.
we assume “real” followers are other twitter accounts with individual humans behind them that follow a twitter account. they are acquired over time who follows an account based on a match on interest, point of view, tweets that are simply interesting or where to get information from.
“fake” followers are bots (internet robots) who are added to the list of followers just to add numbers to the followers list. the thinking is that, the more followers have or the greater the number of followers, the more popular the twitter user/account is. we have all heard of a twitter following contest of some sort between the likes of justin bieber and lady gaga for example. that is the whole idea behind it.
we are guessing someone having a bigger number of followers will feel important or encourage others to follow the person.
apparently, there are internet services from whom you can buy twitter followers. social media practitioners apparently do this all the time for their clients. when you hire a social media practitioner, adding or padding your follower list is one of the things they do for you.
with this in mind, we ran some 2013 senatoriables twitter accounts to find out what is the ratio of “real” vs “fake” twitter followers they have on their accounts.
we do not know if these politicians actually “bought” followers and we are not even giving an opinion on it. maybe they are all “real” followers and that the twitteraudit.com is wrong or giving us bad data or they have a large number of twitter followers whose accounts have become dormant for a long time. these things happen. and we really do not know how accurate or reliable twitteraudit.com is.
take these with a grain salt, decide on your own what they mean.
for good measure, we also put here our own (@wawam) twitter audit and other politicians who are active on twitter. looking at the other audit results will give you a better gauge of what the data all mean for the rest.
the good news is that the country has two polling companies doing a great job of capturing the sentiments of voters – SWS (social weather station) and Pulse Asia. it also adds to it that they tend to conduct the polls at about the same time. with the respondent criteria about the same and survey timing very close to each other, comparing the two results is a very good thing to do.
surveys give the people a view, scientific and objective, of what others think about candidates and issues. it can help others shape or confirm their own views. in this complex world of ours, more information is always better.
for candidates and handlers of the candidates, it can be more than informational, it can be very instructive. they can use the results to re-shape, change directions or strengthen their winning strategies or fix and avoid their losing strategies.
but that is very much dependent on the skill sets of the candidates and their handlers on analyzing and understanding surveys. that is the first step.
the second and the more important step is formulating new strategies and plans based on the survey analysis and conclusions.
we are providing here a first step analysis of the survey results. there are a few more steps on analysis that needs to be done and more steps at formulating action steps in strategy change and plans formulation. but those are for another day.
in the meantime….
data sources: Pulse Asia & SWS
also read (click) :
the latest february 2013 SWS survey, on the 2013 senatoriables is characterized by dramatic drops and dramatic increases in rankings and/or ratings by some senatoriables. the dramatic drops are all on UNA senatoriables while the dramatic increases were on Team PNoy senatoriables.
this survey results are grim and bad news for many UNA senatoriables and for the whole party and great news for Team PNoy and specific senatoriables.
this is how bad it is for the UNA senatoriables :
- 9 out of the top 12 senatoriables belong to the admin PNoy coalition with the UNA opposition getting only 3
- 3 UNA senatoriables dropped out of the top 12 while 2 from Team PNoy barged into the top 12
- 6 out 12 Team PNoy senatoriables gained in rank (aquino, poe, villar, madrigal, trillanes and angara), 6 stayed the same (cayetano, escudero, hontiveros, legarda, magsaysay r, pimentel)
- 6 out of 9 UNA senatoriables declined in rank (honasan, ejercito, enrile, gordon, maceda, zubiri), only 2 gained (binay, magsaysay) while 1 stayed the same (cojuangco)
- 5 in 12 of the Team PNoy senatoriables gained in ratings (aquino, madrigal, poe, trillanes, villar), 4 stayed (angara, escudero, hontiveros, pimentel) while only 3 lost cayetano, legarda, magsaysay r). these three losses were minimal with 2 losing only 1 percentage point while the 3rd lost 2 percentage points
- on the other hand, 7 out of 9 senatoriables of UNA lost ratings (cojuangco, ejercito, enrile, gordon, honasan, maceda, zubiri), 1 the same (magsaysay m) and only 1 gained (binay).
- most of the dramatic loses in rankings and/or ratings were suffered by the UNA senatoriables – jv ejercito, migz zubiri, jack enrile, gringo honasan and ernie maceda
- consequently, most of the dramatic gains in ranking and ratings were gained by Team PNoy senatoriables – grace poe, bam aquino, jamby madrigal and cynthia villar
- no changes occurred for UNA bottom dweller mitos magsaysay, tingting cojuangco and ernie maceda
what can explain the dramatic loses by the UNA senatoriables?
we think its a brand positioning blunder by UNA. we read it first from statements from mitos magsaysay where she said UNA wanted “aquino to succeed” and that their role is to give “constructive criticism”. (read here: malacanang delivers THE BOMB on senatoriable mitos magsaysay)
a few days after that, jv ejercito basically said the same thing, plus the UNA spokesman. some of them even said UNA was not necessarily an opposition party. instead of saying they are an opposition party, they were saying things like they will be “fiscalizers”. why then would voters favor UNA when the president himself has his own set of senatoriables?
these were very confusing statements by the UNA senatoriables and the UNA party. people must have wondered if UNA was not the opposition party, what are they then? that can mean they are part of the administration. if they are part of the administration, why do they have competing senatoriables to that of the admin party?
this was a very basic and fundamental blunder by UNA. instead of differentiating themselves against Team PNoy, they were actually making themselves similar to their opponents. two of the key elements of brand building is uniqueness and differentiation versus competition. instead of achieving those, they were actually making themselves similar. the result is UNA’s brand positioning became invisible in the eyes of the voters. being invisible allows the voters to only see Team PNoy.
Team PNoy released their TV ads soon after. statements by jv ejercito and the UNA party in reaction to the TV ad did not help the party either and made it worst for them.
Ejercito explained where UNA stands when it comes to the Aquino administration. They support his platform of good governance but they want to keep the Senate as an independent institution to keep the administration in check.
“We admit that the President is very popular. We have supported the President on his thrust for good governance. But sometimes when you are too popular, you do not know anymore the pulse of the people,” he said.
ejercito’s words explain the problem UNA created for themselves. he did say the party supports aquino in his platform of good governance. aquino was elected by a landslide vote and continue to be the country’s most popular president on the basis of a good governance election promise and actions during his term. ejercito simply acknowledged aquino is doing well which we think to many voters would mean they should favor the senators aquino is supporting.
UNA was not defining themselves in the mind of the voters. what they were doing instead was propping up even more an already popular president and this president has his own list of senatoriables.
in marketing and advertising, you never talk about your competition, you talk about yourself and how good you are and what you can do that competition cannot. if you talk about competition, you do so only to show their weakness or failure. in this case UNA was not even mentioning any failure or weakness of aquino or Team PNoy. ejercito even praised the achievements and strengths of aquino.
UNA’s blunder is not just very bad brand positioning, we think its really a detrimental strategic blunder. we are guessing that they did research and found out that noynoy aquino is a very popular president and that noynoy aquino is the strongest endorser in philippine politics bar none.
UNA was unable to figure what they can do to counter this high popularity of noynoy aquino. we think their biggest error is thinking that since aquino is very popular, they should not go against him. and that thinking is very much like giving up on the election even before it started.
this kind of results in the surveys with the kind of competition and smarts or lack of smarts by UNA is not surprising. Team PNoy must be very pleased with the way UNA is handling their campaign.
Team PNoy takes the lead in latest SWS-BW poll
president noynoy aquino makes history – net satisfaction rating beats all presidents since cory aquino
the SWS through businessworld released the latest presidential public satisfaction survey results, the Third Quarter 2012 Social Weather Report. the survey was conducted on august 24 to 27, 2012 which is period 9 of aquino’s presidency.
we did an analysis of the survey results and one of the headlines from the survey results which has not been mentioned in news reports is that president aquino’s period 9 rating compared to similar period 9 net satisfaction ratings of other presidents before him is the highest among all of them (chart below).
- cory aquino : +32% points
- fidel ramos : +49% points
- erap estrada : +19% points
- gloria macapagal arroyo : +28% points
- noynoy aquino : +67% points
comparing aquino’s latest net satisfaction rating to the same period 9 of the other presidents is the proper way to compare these ratings. comparing it to the same period of the administration of the presidents remove the “seasonality effect” of the ratings. removing that makes the ratings comparable and “of the same kind”.
satisfaction ratings of presidents normally drop the longer the presidents sits in office. this happens as people remove more and more of the honeymoon feeling with the new president and as the president performs his duties on a regular basis. it is normal to see more people getting disappointed as the people see that the president is unable to fulfill his election promises and as the president fumbles on day to day performance.
the chart above shows the cory, ramos and erap saw their net satisfaction ratings drop from the high at the start of their administration to period 9. only arroyo enjoyed a slight increase. it is interesting that aquino was able to beat the performance of his mother, cory who undoubtedly was one of the country’s most popular presidents.
to see president aquino’s ratings rise at this level and beating all the other presidents is a testament to the huge popularity of the sitting president among the people.
in a previous post in this blog (click to read : ABC socio eco class gives aquino satisfaction ratings rebound, hits highest level in his presidency) we also said that aquino’s latest satisfaction ratings got a boost from the rich or the ABC socio-eco class (chart below).
aquino getting a boost on his over-all net satisfaction rating because of the rich or the ABC socio-eco class is more significant as the lowest net satisfaction rating he got in the last period (period 8) was caused by the rich or the ABC socio-eco class abandoning aquino together with urban areas and ncr. (read blog post here: the rich from NCR & urban areas abandons aquino, grossly dissatisfied with president’s performance – SWS survey). the latest satisfaction rating of aquino marks the return of the rich or the ABC socio-eco class in supporting aquino.
carlo p arvisu
the rich or the ABC socio-eco class has come back big for president noynoy aquino – his over-all satisfaction rating went up on the exceptional ratings given by the them. satisfaction rating by the ABC jumped from 54% to 84%, dissatisfaction dropped to just 6% from 29% and consequently the net satisfaction rating increased to +78%.
the increases in the satisfaction ratings and decreases on the dissatisfaction ratings favored aquino across the board but it was the ABC socio eco class that gave the biggest movements.
Record rating for Aquino
BY NOEMI M. GONZALES, Reporter
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S.C. Aquino III has rebounded to the highest so far for his administration after falling to a personal low in May, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) said in a new report.
Mr. Aquino’s net satisfaction score rose 25 points to a “very good” +67 in an August poll from the “good” +42 three months earlier, with 77% of respondents saying they were satisfied with his performance, up from 63% in May. Those who said otherwise accounted for 10%, an improvement from the 21% previously.
The Aug. 24-27 survey, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, showed Mr. Aquino’s best marks yet since he took office in mid-2010. His previous high was a “very good” +64 in November 2010.
His latest score compares to the personal bests of former presidents Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (+30, March 2004), Joseph Ejercito Estrada (+67, March 1999), Fidel V. Ramos (+69 , July 1993) and Corazon C. Aquino’s all-time high of +72 in October 1986.
The SWS classifies net satisfaction scores of +70 and above as excellent; +50 to +69, very good; +30 to +49, good; +10 to +29, moderate, +9 to -9, neutral; -10 to -29, poor; -30 to -49, bad; -50 to -69, very bad; -70 and below, execrable.
SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)
SWS survey detail
8 April 2011
First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes
Social Weather Stations
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.
The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” [“Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons.”]
To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].
They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).
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