Daang Matuwid – the Mar Roxas presidential bid killer #2016PHVote

This is a journey that started sometime in October 2015. that was a few weeks when Mar Roxas officially announced his candidacy with a big gathering at the historic Club Pilipino in Greenhills, San Juan City. The LP faithful were all there and President Noynoy Aquino was the main speaker who announced to the country that he was endorsing the candidacy of Mar Roxas for the presidency.

Daang Matuwid was the over-all theme of that launch. Aquino had declared that Mar Roxas was the best among the presidentiables who can continue Daang Matuwid. It worked, Mar Roxas ratings in the polls jumped from an anemic single digit to double digits. Around September 2015, Roxas’ ratings were at a number that made him competitive.

At around October, I sat down and did an analysis of what was happening. There were no data available yet at that time but based on my analysis, I thought Daang Matuwid would eventually hurt Roxas.

At around that time, I started to tweet about my thoughts about the Mar Roxas campaign. I did not exprssly say Daang Matuwid was an error, but I was tweeting about problems on the Mar Roxas campaign. I kept the Daang Matuwid as the problem to myself because I thought the Roxas campaign will eventually get it and change their campaign strategy. I thought it was best to keep it a secret, not revealed publicly as I did not want to give clues to Mar Roxas’ competitors,

 

 

 

The qualitative data are those available in the media – survey results from Pulse Asia, SWS and the Laylo Report.

 

 

 

Daang Matuwid is Mar Roxas’ brand positioning, it is what he wants voters to remember him by and in effect the basis for their support for his candidacy. He used Daang Matuwid in most of his TV ads either as a tagline or in the copy. Based on news reports, he  also mentioned this during his campaign sorties.

 

The power of an advertising positioning which in this case is Daang Matuwid is best measured by results. If this was the advertising positioning of a consumer goods brand, the best measure is market share first and box sales next. When market share and box sales go up or the goals are achieved, the advertising positioning is judged as successful. If it gives the opposite result, then it is a failure.

In this case the presidential surveys results is the best measure of how effective Mar Roxas’ Daang Matuwid brand positioning. The results are bad – after 8 months all that it got Roxas is flat ratings and flat ranking at 4th out of a field of 5 candidates.

There is no better quantitative data that proves Daang Matuwid killed the Mar Roxas presidential bid than the poll results.

 

 

we did an analysis of Mar Roxas’ Daang Matuwid brand positioning and from that analysis, though still not benefitting from data, the conclusion was it is bound to hurt Mar Roxas in this election.

this was posted here : http://wp.me/pnw03-1Z5 why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing

 

Ads that have elements that are polarizing tend to fail / not do well in the market place. The ideal ad among other things is that it should only contain positive elements in it, and no negative elements.

 

 

Looking at the US elections, even Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders who belong to the same political party as Barack Obama are promising change. This is most obvious with Clinton who is a strong ally of Obama. She has never said she will just continue what Obama has done. In fact Clinton is promising many changes, some of them very major changes.

That is not true with Mar Roxas. Roxas very clearly states, he will just continue Daang Matuwid.

 

 

we have heard Mar Roxas very defensive on Daang Matuwid and the achievements of the Aquino administration. this did not help Roxas as it took away from him telling the people what his plans are for the country.  also, Daang Matuwid is the work and program of Aquino, not his and yet all its failings is being attributed to him too.

in effect, the more Roxas talked of Daang Matuwid either in its defense or to make a promise of continuing it, it is hurting the presidential bid of Roxas.

 

 

After 8 months of Daang Matuwid as Roxas’ brand positioning and spending more than P1 Billion pesos on it and getting only 4th in the ranking at the most, it should have been obvious that changes were needed  for the Mar Roxas campaign.

Being stuck at 4th for 8 months, they should have changed their campaign objective to getting switchers from the supporters of the other candidates. And if they thought of that as a campaign objective, then they would have looked at what needs to be changed in their campaign strategy,  Getting switchers mean attracting them to change sides. And in attracting them, they would have looked at what are the barriers as to why they have not switched to Roxas and/or what they can say to attract them. In political campaigns removing the negatives is as important as offering the positives. The Roxas campaign did not seem to do this.

This data was released sometime in February 2016. That was the first quantitative data that I saw which confirmed my analysis and conclusion on Daang Matuwid. The core of the points I was raising was that Daang Matuwid was hurting the Mar Roxas campaign. That was purely based on analysis using leanings and principles in marketing, advertising and brand positioning. This quantitative data confirmed my analysis.

And that was what led me to publish in my blog my thoughts on the Mar Roxas campaign, I finally had 2 quantitative data – this one and the trend line that was obvious in the Pulse Asia poll results.

 

 

The data speaks of what voters think of Mar Roxas, it tells us specifically why they are not voting Mar Roxas. They were not voting Mar Roxas because he was “masungit”, “elitista” or the allegations of his failures in his previous cabinet member jobs, it was about questions on his leadership qualities, his not having his own views and vision and his relationship with Aquino. They saw Roxas as a puppet of Aquino. And I suppose because of that they saw him unfit to be president.

We think this is the result of Roxas continuously talking about Daang Matuwid, something that everyone knows to be Aquino’s. Aquino per se or his close relationship was not hurting him but it was that he failed to show his own brand of leadership. Contrast that to his opponents, most notable Rody Duterte whose platform was essentially based on bravado and strong leadership. We are sure that if you ask people to compare Roxas to Duterte, they will say Roxas is a wimp compared to Duterte’s super hero status. On the basis of character, Roxas was inferior compared to Duterte.

The second biggest reason they are not voting Roxas is “might just be like Aquino, no change” at 16% directly supports the point I have made – that Daang Matuwid is a platform for the status quo, no change and no improvement.

 

 

–more to follow–

 

 

 

 

 

the attack ad memes that the Mar Roxas campaign needs – since yesterday

sometime mid March, we posted a chart over twitter for the Mar Roxas campaign. at that point there were many data points that were showing the Roxas campaign was not going anywhere. Roxas’ ratings in the polls were not going up.

in many of Mar Roxas supporters’ minds was the question – can Mar Roxas till win the election? and other questions like – what can Roxas still do to win? is it too late for him?

those questions were being asked of me over at twitter since i had taken the view that the Mar Roxas campaign was failing. having a weak campaign was a view i took since November 2o15 when i started tweeting about it. that POV was based just on an analysis of the Mar Roxas ad campaign and the resulting brand positioning that Roxas has taken. it was anchored the ad campaign and brand poisoning of “Daang Matuwid” which is the main weakness.

at that time in November there were still a few quantitative data points to support my analysis and point of view. but that changed by  February 2016 when there were already an avalanche of data points that showed the Roxas campaign was failing –  poll results showed he was stuck at 4th place in a field of 5 candidates and his ratings were not moving at all, it was flat within the 18% to 20% range.

 

this will deal with number 3 on the above – “air attack ads vs Binay, Poe and Duterte”. they are Mar Roxas’ opponents who occupy the first 3 positions ahead of  his 4th ranking.

at this point, Mar Roxas’ campaign objective need to be : add  supporters by gaining from and converting supporters of his opponents to his side.

he is 4th and at best has 20% in the polls. those will not win the election for him. he will obviously need to go up to 1st with at least a 35% rating. that means he needs to take 15% points from his competitors. he needs to convert that many supporters of his opponents to his side,

one of the most effective ways to do that is to air attack ads against his opponents. attack ads are ads that question the credibility, put in doubt the abilities and correct the wrongs said or done by Roxas’ opponents. the target audience are the supporters of his opponents and the goal is to convince them that they are supporting the wrong candidate and instead shift their support for Roxas.

today, we saw over at twitter memes on Grace Poe based on her performance during the last second presidential debate. these are “fact check” memes – these memes are correcting the wrong things that Poe said during the debate. these to us is a form of attack ads.

there were many more “fact check” violations committed by Grace Poe during the debate. and even much more committed by the other candidates, Rody Duterte and Jejomar Binay.

over at Twitter, i suggested to the mar Roxas campaign and Mar Roxas supporters to do more fact check memes on Poe and specially the other opponents of Roxas.

memes are cheap to make but we think if done well and in good numbers, it can be effective specially if traditional media picks them up.

attack ads are what Mar Roxas needs. they are not a WAWAM!

 

 

Daang Matuwid failure – after 7 months, Roxas reaches only 4th and flat in the polls

Mar Roxas’ presidential campaign is unique – it is the only campaign that has single-mindedly stayed on one platform and advertising campaign since it launched in end July, 2015 with the formal endorsement of President Noynoy Aquino at Club Filipino. Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” since that formal endorsement. In the words of Aquino, Mar Roxas will “continue Daang Matuwid”.

With that announcement, Roxas got a huge bump in the polls, surging from a single digit rating to a double digit rating. That was in September 2015 where his rating at Pulse Asia stood at 18% making him a legitimate contender among the presidentiables. The surge placed Roxas at 3rd and very close to Jejomar Binay who was at 2nd, That was the first time that Roxas placed strongly in the polls.

But that surge in September 2015 was the last good news Roxas has gotten in the polls. For seven (7) months since September 2015 that Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” , Roxas has not gotten any good news in the polls.

After seven (7) months, Roxas is still 4th out of 5 candidates and his ratings has remained flat, just moving within the range of 17% to 20%, close to being within the margin of error. Being within the margin of error means the differences in his ratings are not significant, his numbers have not really changed.

 

 

This means “Daang Matuwid” is associated with failure, the most that it has given Roxas in the last seven (7) months of being single-minded on it is 4th place that is not moving at all. fourth place in an election will not win it.

In marketing and advertising an ad campaign or a brand positioning that is not delivering the results, like a rise in market share or an uptick in volume sales, is immediately dropped and changed into something else.

This action of dropping and changing ad campaigns and brand positioning is even more dire in a political campaign. A political campaign is short, lasting just months and has a definite deadline – election day. Not getting it right by election time means losing the election.

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” for sure is a WAWAM!

Read also :

• why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing http://wp.me/pnw03-1Z5

• Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing him – the numbers show it http://wp.me/pnw03-1YE

 

why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing

Part 3.

 

 

this is a lethal combination for any campaign or brand – when your own ad campaign is doing badly while at the same time your competition’s ad campaigns are doing very well. you have nowhere to go for strength.

 

 

 

the Mar Roxas ad campaign fails in its advertising strategy. no amount of creative advertising or media spending can make an ad campaign work for you when the strategy is all wrong.

brand positioning is the most important and most powerful component of the advertising strategy. get the brand positioning wrong and everything else is wrong and weak.

the Mar Roxas campaign is so entrenched and totally defined by “Daang Matuwid” that any negative, any comment or any problem with it by extension is put on Mar Roxas. never mind that Roxas has no direct hand on them. voters are not seeing that. the take away of voters is that with Daang Matuwid as failing or having problems, Mar Roxas is failing and having problems.

elections are about the future, the things that will happen for us in the future. that is the reason why elections are about promises that the candidates are making now and will do in the future. Daang Matuwid is about the current and the past. a candidate promising the current and the past will not be going anywhere in an election that is about the future.

 

with Roxas placing 4th out of 5 presidentiables, his marketing and campaign objective is clear and obvious – he needs to convert supporters of his competitors into his camp. his goal is to look for switchers from his competitors, he needs to convert them to his camp.

“Daang Matuwid” does not do that. in fact the reason supporters of his competitors are supporting others is because they are promising something other than “Daang Matuwid”. promising “Daang Matuwid” is not giving them reason to switch. all that it will do is sustain his current power base which based on the surveys is a small minority.

 

 

 

dropping “Daang Matuwid” is a very major and serious change that the Mar Roxas campaign needs to do. it is necessary. keeping it in the campaign as a brand positioning will not move up Roxas’ standing in the surveys and not move him to win in the election.

there should be some consumer research that the Mar Roxas campaign can do to confirm my views on Daang Matuwid. regardless of the consumer research , the numbers that we have now supports my view – Roxas’ ratings are flat and he ranks 4th out of 5 candidates.

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is a WAWAM!

 

 

 

 

 

 

ads of Mar Roxas’ competitors that worked for them, hurt Roxas

Part 2.

 

 

 

 

 

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing him – the numbers show it

Part 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mar Roxas 2 mini-attack ads – view them here

finally completed – these are the two (2) mini attack ads by Mar Roxas

this was the first one aired:

the emphatic ending of “higit sa lahat hindi ko kayo nanakawan” is an obvious reference to Jojo Binay.

 

this is the second one:

Roxas says:

• “walang drama” – refers to Grace Poe and her dramatics
• “hindi ako paawa” – refers to Jojo Binay
• “hindi ako siga-siga: – refers to Rody Duterte
• “hindi run ako abusado” – most probably refers to Jojo Binay
• “at hindi ako magnanakaw” – definitely refers to Jojo Binay

we think Binay had the most mention, 3 mentions out of 5 because he is #1 in he presidentiables survey. Poe and Duterte got one mention each because they are the other two contenders. Santiago did not get any mention because she is even lower than Roxas at the surveys.

what do you think of these ads? let us know by posting your comments here.

 

Team Binay whines about vsBinay attack ads

we posted this yesterday:

we think the Binay team should be in serious meetings since last night strategizing and knocking their heads on how to respond to the attack ads. they have several choices :

• complain to media about the attack ads
• answer the ads though a press conference
• have the ads banned from the air
• launch their own attack ads against Roxas

we think for sure they will do #1. they will do that today. and probably do #2 too. the Binay team complains a lot and they do these things on a regular basis.

click and read here : a new era in Philippine political advertising – full blown attack ads vs Binay and Mar Roxas’ mini-attack ads

and #1 is exactly what happened yesterday with this news article  at the PDI:

Binay camp cries foul over ‘negative’ TV ads

The camp of Vice President Jejomar Binay Monday cried foul over the spread of “spurious” commercials that were apparently aimed at reviving the web of corruption issues being hurled against the standard-bearer of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

Rico Quicho, one of Binay’s spokespersons, claimed that the videos were the handiwork of the ruling Liberal Party (LP) and that these were part of the latest smear campaign of the allies of the administration’s presidential candidate, Mar Roxas.

Quicho said the coordinated efforts to vilify the UNA presidential contender “started in the Senate and continued up to this day through a deceptive advertisement.”

In a text message to the Inquirer, he said, “The elitist campaign to discredit the Vice President is nothing but lies and innuendos.”

“This is a manifestation of the vain attempt to compensate the gross inefficiency and lack of empathy of the LP’s presidential candidate through inappropriate mudslinging against another candidate,” he added.

Asked why he thought the LP was behind the political ads, Quicho said, “LP’s actions speak louder than words.”

“The participation of (LP) in the conspiracy to destroy the Vice President’s reputation is clear and obvious,” he added.

The three 15-second political ads came out in a major television network on Friday and have since been shared in social media by a group called “Supporters of Truth.”

Source : http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/760660/binay-camp-cries-foul-over-negative-tv-ads#ixzz3yzM9SZME 

the attack ads must be something for the Team Binay to take notice of them. from the article, it said the vsBinay attack ads were first aired last friday and there is apparently another attack ad against Grace Poe on her American citizenship. we have not seen the one from Poe. we watched a lot of local TV last night and we did not see the attack ads on air. we also still cannot find copies of the ads at the internet.

the attack ads are very useful, we wonder why they are not giving them good media weights behind them.

note: to the group called Supporters Of Truth can you get in touch with us because we want to post the attack ads here,

interesting for the 2016 election and for political advertising in the philippines, attack ads are new in philippine elections and philippine advertising.

 

 

Duterte’s “bowling ball” TV ad is not a joke, it’s a wawam!

we first saw that ad on the internet. we found it amusing and we thought it was just a joke. a joke as in an ad that some teen-ager made on his computer and posted it on the internet. maybe the teen-ager submitted the “ad” to his high school teacher as a project for his Arts subject. we wondered what grade the highs school teacher gave the project.

we were wrong, it’s a real TV ad as we saw it aired at TV Patrol tonight. it was not a joke.

the ad is very simple, it communicates its message very simply. the analogy of Duterte as a bowling ball rolling over the pins of problems of the country. the visualization is something even young kids will understand. that is a good thing.

that is fine except that the ad has too many pins or problems of the country that as Duterte as the bowling ball rolls and each pin falls, we are unable to read the supers on each of the pins. in other words we could not read what problems Duterte promises to solve.

there are just too many pins or problems of the country that Duterte is promising to topple down. that leads to the biggest weakness on this ad – it is an over-promise. the ad is promising too many things that people might find it unbelievable.

it does not help that the ad does not say how Duterte will topple these problems or what is it in Duterte that will make him solve all the problems. in advertising terms, it does not have a “reason why”.

this is what this ad is all about :

• lists too many problems of the country that Duterte will solve
• too many for us to read what they are
• without telling us how Duterte will solve them
• or what in Duterte will allow him to solve them
• and that high number makes the ad unbelievable

conclusion : it’s a wawam!

 

Mar Roxas campaign airs a mini attack ad

was talking about the need for an attack ad by the Roxas campaign. this one takes the form of an attack ad. https://t.co/0IrvWCpsnj

— WAWAM (@wawam) January 26, 2016

note : we are still looking for ways to post the video here. we will post it here once we are able to find a way to do it. 

just tonight, the Mar Roxas campaign aired what i can call a mini attack ad, a small version of the attack ad that i was tweeting about in the afternoon today.

we would have done a more aggressive and a definitively hard hitting attack ad than the one Roxas aired. and because it would be hard hitting, it would be best done by the Liberal Party and the LP senatoriables which is called an omnibus attack ad.

but it is an ad in the right direction. it is an ad better than what Roxas has aired previously and the times and situation that Roxas is in calls for such an ad.

 

Mar Roxas for the win – launch attack ads

this afternoon, we posted these on twitter :

we didn’t think the Mar Roxas campaign is doing well. in fact we think it is doing badly. we have the numbers on our side – Mar Roxas’ ratings in the surveys are flat at best and more importantly a slight decline in ranking.

while Roxas’ results  are flat and slightly declining, his key opponents Jejomar Binay and Rody Duterte are surging upwards.

the most impressive of the two is Binay who not only recovered but reversed his declining trend to a surge that has placed him at the top. that is a reversal in fortune in a most dramatic way.

Duterte who was a late entry into the race saw his numbers rise up to a competitive ranking in the surveys,

Binay zoomed up on the basis of his “nognog” ad campaign which he started to air a few weeks ago. Duterte has aired ads but his strength is on his positioning of tough on crime.

Roxas on the other hand aired forgettable TV ads based on “Daang Matuwid” which we thought was close to being boring and did not make any remarkable impression for Roxas.

we thought Roxas’ anemic TV ads is costing him the election. Roxas’ numbers remained flat behind these campaigns.

we thought attack ads would do Roxas well. actually, more than building Roxas, it will stop the rise of his opponents. Roxas’ opponents are clearly on an upward trend and that trend needed to be stopped. the attack ads will do that.

we also posted this chart:

the chart defines in broad, general terms the compass direction that the Roxas campaign should take.

we think Mar Roxas is the most qualified and most deserving among the presidentiables but that is not reflected in the results from the surveys. and we think that is being caused by the misplaced and weak marketing and advertising strategies and executions they have been airing.

the attack ads would be a great step in the right direction.

the winning ads of the 2016 Philippine election : as of January 2016

in no particular order:

Presidentiable Jejomar Binay’s “Nognog” TV ad campaign 

there is a new version under the “nognog” campaign that was aired today but it is not yet available at YouTube.

these two ads were the start of the “Nognog” campaign and these ads are associated with reversing Binay’s declining numbers at the presidentiable polls and in fact had put him back at the #1 spot.

we were shocked when these ads aired. the ads directly addressed the issues of allegations of graft and corruption on Binay which have been on the headlines for many months and the reason for the dramatic declines Binay have been suffering at the polls. Binay was definitely on a steep declining trend when these ads aired.

after the ads aired and the surveys released covering the period of airing, the numbers of Binay spiked up. in fact they were a dramatic reversal of the umbers and placed Binay back on top.

the ad effectively redefined the allegations of corruption and graft against Binay. he has been saying these to the press and in appearances in the provinces but it really didn’t do much to change his ratings. that is, until the ads were aired.

we think what made this ad work was the term “nognog” that he called himself in the ads. “nognog” is a derogatory term used on dark skinned Filipinos that was often used against him by anti-Binay voters. Binay is dark skinned and short (pandak).

“nognog” is also something that most Filipinos can relate to. while it may be a negative or derogatory among the Filipino rich who are fair-skinned Filipinos, it is a fair and acceptable description used by the masses among themselves. its use suddenly allowed the masa to relate to Binay.

we think Binay’s “nognog” has the potential to be the “Mr. Palengke” of Mar Roxas when he resoundingly won his senate seat.

 

Senatorial Leila De Lima’s “Justice without fear or favor”

this just aired today. it was different and called your attention. you paid attention to this ad. it is highly creative and you do get the message. this ad  is able to give De Lima an excellent brand positioning among the senatoriables. this ad was so good that De Lima was trending on twitter after the ad aired. the Philippine Daily Inquirer also had an article on it at their website. this extra mileage is what you get when you air a good ad. this ad can push De Lima to the number 1 spot among the senatoriables.

what got us going crazy in this ad is the use of umbrellas. the story of corruption, crime ad drugs is plain to see in the ad. nothing really special about that. but what set it apart aside from the retro feel to it is the use of the umbrellas.

think about it – why did they need to do  a rainy scenario out of the bar? it is January, it is not the rainy season now. the only explanation is that they wanted to use umbrellas in the ad.

and to us, the umbrella is the symbol of corruption, arrogance and power tripping that we saw when Junjun Binay, the mayor of Makati and the son of presidentiable jejomar Binay was caught in a video being shielded by a bodyguard with a giant umbrella on a  non rainy night at Urdaneta Village when he harassed the security guards to let him exit the gate of the village while they were not supposed to .

this ad firmly defines De Lima’s band positioning – as the anti crime and corruption super hero, a role she fulfilled admirably while she was DOJ chief. this cements that positioning for her.

in some way, we think this positioning of hers and this ad has the potential to take away the thunder from Duterte’s tough on crime positioning.

the ad also has excellent production values. the cinematography, direction, lighting, casting and acting were very topnotch. its fun to watch!

 

Presidentiable Rody Duterte’s “Merry Christmas”

Duterte is a presidentiable that you either hate or love. and there is no in-between – either you passionately love him or passionately hate him.  but this ad you take notice and the ending of the ad makes you smile. do not know if the haters have changed their minds about Duterte, but this ad you like for its wit and unexpected ending.

these ads are not a wawam!