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the key reasons why a landslide win is possible for noynoy aquino

May 9, 2010 7 comments

one day before the elections and we are putting our foot down – either to be cut by rampaging train if we are wrong or we start a rampage on our own if we are right.

we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.

we think  given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.

these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:

  • aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
  • not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
  • his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
  • manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
  • erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
  • none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
  • aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
  • aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest  rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%,   aquino’s 42%  will still make him win this election.

the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar)  and on a slight  upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.

an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.

with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll closed – #1-villanueva; #2-gordon; #3-teodoro; #4-aquino

May 8, 2010 483 comments

several tens of thousands voted in our poll here at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog  Poll which was first opened on december 2, 2009. this is probably one of the most successful internet poll on the 2010 presidentiables given the sheer number of voters.

this was the 2nd presidentiables poll we opened here with the first one including the undeclared but claimed candidates. this poll only includes the official COMELEC list of presidentiables.

we like to thank everyone for viting in the polls and posting your comments her.

on may 10, we will open a new poll – an exit poll. you will be asked to vote the presidentiable you actually voted in the election.

know your candidate better and find out specifics on all the other candidates,  compare them,  click here :

  Read more…

dramatic losses in internals for top 3 presidentiables but aquino leads, erap 2nd, villar drops to 3rd – May 2010 SWS-Business World presidentiables survey

May 7, 2010 4 comments

the sws-business world may 2-3 poll shows some interesting developments in the internal scores with major changes in them although the over-all outcome did not show any changes.

noynoy aquino continue to be the front runner but has gained significantly from previous to now 42% from 38%, a 4% point gain. the survey has a 2.2% margin of error.

erap estrada also gained significantly from previous to now 20% from 17% and overtakes manny villar who suffered a major drop to now 19% from the previous 26%. the significant drop for villar and significant gain for erap has put them now on a statistical tie. although the momentum is on the side of estrada.

it appears to us villar has not found the correct formula to arrest his declining numbers. we have said previously in this blog that villar’s drop has been caused by the unresolved C-5 corruption scandal, concretized by the Villarroyo name and villar’s move from the side of good to evil in his parties efforts at black propaganda most of which backfired and hurt his campaign instead.

(read here: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/category/why-manny-villar-will-lose-the-election/)

the over-all ratings and rankings have not changed  from previous. however, it is noteworthy that aquino’s lead over estrada is dramatic, a +22% lead, more than double than what estrada has. aquino has 42% versus estrada’s 20%.

the internals of their scores are quite interesting to look at.

aquino’s NCR ratings grew significantly to 43% from 35% while his socio-eco class rating among the ABC dropped to 44% from 53%. we find that a very unusual movement as most of the ABC class are located in NCR. these ratings seem to be contradicting each other. we wonder if there is a tabulation error in this report.

estrada’s mindanao rating has gone up dramatically to 30% from 22%.  this is probably driven mostly by estrada’s mindanao-specific tv ad that he has been airing in the past weeks. estrada may have found a very strategic move in this election. he is the only presidentiable who ran mindanao-specific tv ads.

another notable movement in estrada’s internal scores is his ABC rating which is now 14% from the previous 6%, more than doubling from previous. we wonder if this is related to the question we have posted on the ABC tallies in aquino’s scores.

villar’s significant drop in over-all rating to 19% from 26% may have been brought about by dramatic deterioration of his ratings in the NCR, from 18% to 10%, a cut of more than half; balance luzon from 25% to 20%, a quarter drop and mindanao , another drop by more than half from 31%  to 15%.  we think these are very alarming deterioration of villar’s ratings.

significant drops in villar’s ratings occurred across all socio-eco classes, -9% pts in ABC, -7% in D and -10% in E. across the board drops in geography and socio-classes is showing villar supporters are showing fluid movements confirming what we said previously that villar’s supporters are most vulnerable to poaching by other presidentiables.

these movements should tell the presidentiable campaigns to look into geographic and demographics segmentation to improve their over-all ratings. unfortunately, because it is just a few days before election, there is not much they can do to recover or push their ratings in the direction they want it to be.

Aquino pads poll lead

Gap now 22 points; Estrada overtakes Villar

WITH THE MAY 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.

The May 2-3 poll, conducted roughly a week before Filipinos troop to the precincts, gave Mr. Aquino the support of 42%, up four points and ahead of former President Joseph “Erap” E. Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masa who was now in second place with three-point gain to 20%.

Erstwhile second-placer Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) was a point behind at 19%, a result within the survey’s error margin of 2.2%. His support was down seven points from the prior BW-SWS poll of April 16-19.

The gap between the top two was 22 points, wider than the 12 Mr. Aquino enjoyed over Mr. Villar in the last survey.

source:  http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

 

~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~
carlo arvisu

erap estrada – the president who will finish plans for the poor

May 4, 2010 9 comments

JOSEPH EJERCITO ESTRADA: I want to finish my plans for the poor

By Norman Bordadora
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 04:43:00 05/04/2010

(Editor’s Note: The presidential profiles will be running in no particular order but as the stories come in from our reporters in the field.)

(Fifth of a series)

MANILA, Philippines—On a humid night in Tuguegarao City, where the earlier daytime temperature reportedly hit a sweltering 39 degrees Celsius, a crowd of around 5,000 came to see him and didn’t seem to mind the heat building up inside the Cagayan Sports Complex.

At 73 and even with a drawl, former President Joseph Estrada could still make multitudes hang on to his every word—whether it leads to a litany over what he maintained to be his “unlawful” ouster and conviction for plunder, or to one of his so-called “Eraptions.”

That night, he deftly combined both: “My beloved mother once told me, ‘what’s with you, Joseph? You didn’t finish your studies. You didn’t finish your presidency. Now, even your (jail) sentence, you didn’t finish.’”

The audience composed mostly of farmers, workers and vendors lapped it all up, their hearty laughter turning into cheers and chants of “Erap! Erap! Erap!”

But after delivering the punch line to full effect, Estrada shifted moods and made the follow-through in all earnest: “And so I promised her that time that I will finish the programs that I started for the Filipino masses.”

The scene had become a hallmark of almost every Estrada sortie since the former multi-awarded actor embarked on what could be his ultimate sequel: To regain the presidency after a disgraceful fall from power.

In between wisecracks, the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) standard-bearer would remind listeners that people didn’t have to form long lines for rations of rice during his abbreviated tenure in Malacañang, unlike during that of his predecessor Fidel V. Ramos or his successor Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Read more…

corruption is the number 1 issue in the 2010 philippine election

May 3, 2010 3 comments

read the platforms of government of all presidentiables here

May 2, 2010 3 comments

presidentiables stand on how they will generate jobs

May 2, 2010 3 comments

 

source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/talkofthetown/view/20100501-267548/How-theyll-generate-jobs

How they’ll generate jobs 
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:13:00 05/01/2010

FILIPINOS CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOR JOBS OVERSEAS. THERE ARE SIMPLY not enough jobs available in the country. While remittances help keep the economy afloat, the social costs of a parent or spouse working abroad are huge. A bright spot is the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which has absorbed tens of thousands of college graduates. But the BPO sector benefits mostly the middle class. It is closed to the poor who have less education. A big number of Filipinos are unemployed or underemployed or have simply given up hope of finding a job. How the next administration will address the unemployment problem can be gleaned from the answers of the presidential candidates to the following questions:

How will you generate jobs? What policies and programs will you pursue to create jobs?
What kind of jobs will be generated under your administration? What sectors, industries?
Will you encourage the export of labor?

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal Party

THE NO. 1 ITEM IN OUR PLATform is job generation. The theory is we could increase the quality and remuneration of jobs available here. It might not match those in other countries but with the added benefit of having your family and you are a first-class citizen here. We might have enough people who will decide to stay.

We want something like (US President Franklin) Roosevelt’s job creation program—building schools or public works projects with a big labor bias. If the project will not be delayed and it’s OK cost-wise, then we will choose a labor-intensive program.

We have so many areas that have a big potential like the BPO sector, IT and agriculture, particularly post-harvest production. Agriculture can be subdivided [into subsectors]. There are also many others that have not been exploited like fruits, [which can be processed into] fruit juices.

My understanding of the law is that the state cannot make it a policy to export our workers. Nevertheless, I want to make sure that the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration, and our embassies and consulates really help all our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

A very significant portion of the population are OFWs outside the country. So the main point is that if they leave, it’s because they want to and not because they have to.
Interview by Philip Tubeza

 

JC de los Reyes
Ang Kapatiran

WORK IS A WAY OF FULFILLing part of our human potential given to us by God. If the dignity of work is to be protected, then the basic rights of workers, owners and managers must be respected—the right to productive work, to decent and fair wages, to organize and join unions, to economic initiative, and to ownership and private property.

Ang Kapatiran shall ensure rapid and sustained economic growth for sustainable poverty reduction and better quality of life for all by:

Reviewing and rationalizing all outstanding public debts and limiting future government borrowings within the growth level of our exports or GDP;

Raising private and public savings rates to increase total investment rate;

Enhancing investments in human resource development, especially by strengthening education in the sciences, mathematics, engineering and English;

Streamlining government bureaucracy to reduce personnel expenditures;

Drastically improving tax administration and revenue collection;

Abolishing laws, rules and regulations that give government revenue personnel the discretion to allow or disallow certain deductions or exemptions;

Prioritizing agricultural development to attain a high degree of self-sufficiency by encouraging productivity through the introduction of new technologies and support-infrastructure;

Creating microfinance and other credit facilities for small enterprises by harnessing OFW remittances and more exports for economic development;

Encouraging livelihood through the formation of cooperatives and other small enterprises and development programs to alleviate poverty in the grassroots level;

Implementing the agrarian reform program;

Promoting industrialization by encouraging the expansion of useful industries, including telecommunications and information technology;

Attaining a stable balance of trade by encouraging the development of new export products and improving existing ones.

In summary, Ang Kapatiran shall work for a “job-filled society”—industrialization for the economic well-being of all, agricultural development, microfinance and other credit facilities for small- and medium-enterprises, and positive investment climate to reverse the outflow of OFWs.
Interview by Jerome Aning

 

Joseph Estrada
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino

WE WILL GET RID OF THE secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the New People’s Army (NPA). So we will start developing the countryside. Right now, the government cannot develop the countryside.

In the early ’50s and ’60s, informal settlers or squatters were concentrated in Metro Manila. Today, in all urban areas, there are squatters because the countryside remains undeveloped. There’s the NPA. In Mindanao, there’s the MILF.

We will concentrate on services and agriculture to generate jobs. When there’s peace and order, there’ll no longer be [adverse] travel advisories from other countries. We will improve our tourism.

We cannot stop the export of labor soon. Maybe within two to three years. It will take time to generate jobs. Like for example, during my time, if you will remember we planned to change the economic provisions of the Constitution so that we can generate jobs.

We will allow foreigners to own land here except agricultural land. If we allow foreigners to own land they can compete with our local realtors and once (they own land) they will develop that. Once they develop that, it will generate jobs.
Interview by Norman Bordadora

 

Richard Gordon
Bagumbayan

WE HAVE NATURAL TRAITS and skills for tourism. We can be the beach capital of the world. We have enough airports already. Our problem is we have to do some policy on certain airports to be declared “open skies.” Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam have open skies.

The educational system is producing many hotel and restaurant management graduates. That is the future. Because of the tourism law which I authored, we can now invite more investors to build establishments without overtaxing the environment.

We can spread out hotels. Tourists will not want to go to Boracay every year. They want to go to new destinations. Our graduates can be tuned into tourism and entrepreneurship. But our education must also leapfrog to information technology. So you will want more software development.

We may have to export labor for a while, but we will encourage enhancing labor skills. I am not going to send a maid. I am going to send a governess. There is a value added.

We also have to make sure that we harness savings instead of encouraging a consumption-based economy. We will have a provident fund in which we are able to raise money from the savings of our overseas workers. Professional people should run the fund as they do it in Singapore.
Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.

  Read more…

Pulse Asia April 2010 Presidentiables Poll : estrada ties villar at 2nd, aquino widens lead

April 29, 2010 Leave a comment

The survey fieldwork was conducted from April 23 to 25, 2010 using face-to-face interviews. Key developments in April 2010 include the following: (1) defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats (CMD) mostly to the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the Liberal Party (LP); (2) election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps (UV) because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P 700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the re-bidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink; (3) completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections; (4) various incidents of election-related violence across the country; (5) Senator Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Senator Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III for president and Makati City Mayor Jejomar C. Binay for vice-president; (6) accusations made by former President Joseph E. Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. that while serving as Senate President in 2007, Senator Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares; (7) Senator Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups; (8) petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes; (9) the Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan Justice); (10) calls for the resignation and disbarment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Acting Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre; and (11) increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country.

http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=716

SWS-Business World poll: jejomar binay’s phenomenal rise to 2nd makes him a contender in VP race

April 26, 2010 1 comment

looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.

the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.

that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time.  unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.

the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.

we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.

SWS-Business World april poll : aquino holds lead, villar drops. villar’s down trend to continue.

April 26, 2010 Leave a comment

source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=9817

this poll was conducted middle of april, about 4 weeks from election time and it shows aquino’s lead continue to be strong at 38% while villar shows downward trend at 26%.  aquino having a strong double digit lead  and villar showing a declining trend is good news for aquino and very bad news for villar.

we are reading the poll results with just 2 weeks to go till election time. with nothing new and no remarkable or outstanding efforts done by villar since survey time till today, a 2 week lapse,  it is difficult to expect that villar’s down trending trend has been arrested or reversed. in marketing, the way to arrest and reverse a declining  sales and market share trend is to some new and heavy marketing efforts. not doing anything new and heavy means the trend will continue. this should be true for villar.

in fact, the past two weeks has not been good for villar. erap estrada and juan ponce enrile exploded a new scandal – the VLL and PSE scandal where both charged villar used his influence and power on the PSE to allow him to sell his shares on the IPO of VLL which was supposed on escrow. rules of the PSE disallowed the release of shares for sale by owners to protect investors.

we have said in this blog that villar is getting hurt by the C-5 corruption scandal since early this year, then it got solidified as a dead weight with the villarroyo charge. this VLL-PSE scandal has the potential to confirm in the minds of voters of villar’s weakness in character where he tends to use his power and position for personal gain. the gain in this particular instance is worth billions of profits in the sale of his VLL stocks.

with the VLL-PSE scandal breaking out in the last two weeks and with no to little new and heavy efforts done by villar, we can expect further deterioration of villar’s ratings.

we are now at the point of no return. the only way the trends will change is doing a hail mary pass. who has the guts or who is most desperate to do it?

teodoro, gordon and villanueva supporters – don’t waste your vote, vote for any of the 2 front runners

April 25, 2010 143 comments

on request, we are posting here this article written by sweet.twins in one of the pinoy bulletin boards.

~antenna1

for the teodoro, villanueva, gordon, madrigal, de los reyes and perlas supporters – do not waste your vote by voting for the candidate you support, vote instead any of the two front runners who you think is better for the country – villar or aquino.

by this time the fact is these presidentiables – teodoro, villanueva, gordon, madrigal, de los reyes and perlas do not have a chance to win the election. if you vote for any of them, villar or aquino will win without you having a say on who will be president.

why waste your vote? your vote can make a difference between villar and aquino. it will probably be a very close election for both of them. since it will be close, a single vote will matter a lot.

you have a chance to elect the president of the country, use it to elect who between aquino and villar you think is best for the country.

based on the latest polls, aquino will get 18 million votes, villar 17 million, teodoro 3 million, villanueva 1.5 million and gordon 1 million votes.

only 1 million will separate villar and aquino. let’s assume just 1/3 of teodoro supporters abandon teodoro and vote for either villar or aquino, then these teodoro supporters would have elected the president.

its possible the gap between villar and aquino will be smaller and that means supporters of teodoro can really make a difference.

on the other hand 1 more vote for teodoro, or this time 3,000,001 votes will NOT make teodoro win.

assuming 50 million voters, this is how the latest SWS poll might translate to votes:
  • aquino 18 million
  • villar 17 million
  • estrada 7.5 million
  • teodoro 3 million
  • villanueva 1.5 million
  • gordon 1 million
even if all the supporters of estrada, teodoro, villanueva and gordon vote for any of them, that will only be 5.5 million votes, that is NOT going to make any of them win. however, if these 5.5 million or even 1/3 of them vote for either villar or aquino, they choose the winner!
all the presidentiables, both the front runner AND laggards groups are talking about the same thing – the economy. jobs. education, poverty alleviation and health care. both are talking about fixing these in our country.

we know the laggards groups will not win this election. make your vote count by selecting one of the two front runners who you think will be able to deliver better on the economy, jobs, education, poverty alleviation and health care.

you may want the country’s economy, jobs, education, poverty alleviation and health care to improve but voting a presidentiable who obviously will not win will not do that. so elect one of the front runners who you think can do vest in fixing those.

the laggards groups are not talking of anything different. in fact the laggards group even have a very strong disadvantage of not having a a large political party to back them up. even teodoro’s political party is now being reduced to nothing. it will be much more difficult to be effective if a presidentiable without a strong political party is elected. basing it on this one, the real choice is really down to aquino or villar, the front runners.

that is how few these voters are and how futile their votes will be if they continue to vote for these candidates.

the manny villar formula : C5 scandal + VLL PSE scandal = Villarroyo

April 24, 2010 1 comment

C5 scandal + VLL PSE scandal = Villarroyo

did we just witness manny villar’s losing formula? villar’s poll ratings started to take a dive at the height of the C-5 controversy at the senate when he avoided confronting his colleagues at the senate to avoid talking about it ang being questioned on it. it was a simple formula – talk to the press but do not attend senate hearings.

the slide continued when mar roxas in a press conference coined the word Villarroyo. although the point of the name villarroyo was not exactly the same as the C-5, it’s point being villar is the secret candidate of gloria macapagal arroyo, it reminded people just the same about corruption which was C-5 was all about at its core.

arroyo is seen by many as   the mother of all corruption in this country, she scored highest after marcos on corruption in surveys. having villarroyo as a name reminded people about the same kind of corruption that people associated with arroyo and did not like.

it is the same fear that people have in not voting for teodoro. teodoro is seen by voters as too close to arroyo so much that just the association gives teodoro the same kind of corruption image. the VLL PSE scandal is about the same thing.

villar does not deny he talked to the PSE (philippine stock exchange) officials about the locked-up shares of VLL after the IPO. he said he talked to them only to get news from them on the status of the listing of VLL at the stock market. so it was just a business call or a follow-up call.

he however forgot that he is the senate president and no ordinary person and even a no ordinary CEO of a philippine corporation. in fact, why would he do such a business call when he is supposed to be no longer connected with the private company VLL? elected officials are prohibited by law to hold corporate positions in private companies when they get elected. this by itself shows impropriety.

villar in his statement also says there was no violation of PSE rules as the locked-up shares he held as they were not released, it was disapproved by the PSE. that means he did ask the permission PSE to release the locked-up shares. it means villar has asked the PSE to violate it’s own rules. that is another impropriety.

saying the government did not lose money in the whole thing and it actually gained in taxes is not the point nor does it change the fact that he committed improprieties in the whole affair.

neither is anything diminished nor made right in throwing the trash at erap estrada who also had his own misdealings with the stock market before when he was president. the charge on estrada then was price fixing on BW Resources shares, a scandal that almost led to the implosion of the philippine sotck market.  we do not condone what Estrada did but the proper conclusion here is that villar is just like estrada who both used their power to gain at the philippine stock market.

the C5 scandal and the VLL PSE scandal shows a clear similarity – villar seem to be in the habit of using his power and stature as public official to influence government and other related agencies for his personal gain, specifically for the businesses he and/or his family owns.

the name villarroyo rings a bell.

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