final count: jejomar binay wins by 727T votes, 41.6% of the vote

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll For Vice-Presidentiables – bayani fernando is #1

bayani fernando

edu manzano

jejomar binay

loren legarda

mar roxas

perfecto yasay

January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%.  fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.

December 10, 2009, 7am – bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.

December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of  which was yesterday.

Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.

Villarroyo – the most powerful word of the 2010 election

the 2010 election will be remembered for many things some good and some bad. there will also be losers and a winner. but one word will stand out, it can be the word for the 2010 election – Villarroyo.

it is a very creative term, two names moulded into one, giving it a precise meaning to a complex concept – that villar is arroyo’s secret candidate in the 2010 election.

it did not matter that the declared candidate of arroyo is gilbert teodoro, the idea was putting a seed of doubt in the minds of voters about who the candidate is of the evil one.

arroyo has been seen as the exclusive owner of  the kiss of death for those seeking public office. she showed she had that during the last senatorial elections where almost all of  the administration candidates lost in that election while  almost all of the opposition senatorial candidates won senatorial seats.

the administration during that time was boasting of its good economic record. the malacanang press bureau was releasing a lot of economic data boasting it was under the arroyo administration that had good economic results.

the numbers were  good but real life was not for most of the people – jobs were scarce, unemployment high and hunger were also high. since that was just a senatorial election, the people took its anger towards the administration candidates by voting those who were going against them who were mostly opposition senatorial candidates. that election was a protest vote against arroyo, a referndum on her perfromance as president.

arroyo’s kiss of death is as potent then as it is now with gilbert teodoro, the newest recipient of arroyo’s kis of death. his ratings continue to suffer in the polls with just 7% in the latest reading, getting only as high 9% on previous tallies. his ratings hardly moved from the time he entered the competition.

teodoro was largely an unknown candidate to voters having no previous elected national position and just two years of a cabinet post in the arroyo administration, the defense portfolio which by its very nature is a low key cabinet position.

he came into the election as an unknown and unmarked. arroyo’s kiss of death was the only mark that was on him and that did not help at all. the teodoro campaign was obsessed with playing it down, the two of them never photographed together and the traditional raising of hands to proclaim a candidacy not done when teodoro was proclaimed standard bearer of arroyo’s political party, lakas-kampi-cmd.

the villarroyo name may not have have the same kind of power asarroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro had, but we think it certainly played a crucial role in this election. we think it had the power of concretizing the idea of the negative in just ten letters.

developments in the campaign also helped give the term villarroyo some potent life. at the time this was coined and released into the public’s mind, the headlines talked about the disintegration of the administration party, lakas-kampi-cmd, with many of its members and even its key officers abandoning the party to join the LP and the NP.

there were also reports that mike arroyo, gloria’s beloved partner was in talks with manny villar and had dropped support on teodoro. teodoro’s own party helped to put very dry wood into the smouldering  fire with it’s members, some key officers and even those working for the teodoro and manzano campaigns complaining about lack of funds to no support coming from lakas-kampi-cmd to their campaign efforts.

they did not have to tell us that as we witnessed that by ourselves. during that time, we hardly saw any tv ads for teodoro and manzano. (in fact todate, manzano has had no tv ad for himself or with him with his presidential candidate).

taking all of it together, it forms into a composite of many different things that actually fit and made sense. we saw that villar was continuing to put on air heavy advertising at that time and that true to critics, he really never went against arroyo as much for example mar roxas or even noynoy aquino.

our simple minds, picking up simple things did form a great, sensible and powerful word – villarroyo.

if you think about it – the whole story seems like a complex plot from a political drama movie. it looked like a script was written for it and got unfolded right in front of our eyes.

or is it destiny speaking here? there is no way any human could have conspired to make the last two letters of villar as the first two letters of arroyo’s last name.

villarroyo –  a perfect fit of two names, the most powerful word in the 2010 election. it will be the one word that was able to bring down billions of pesos in advertising and marketing expense and a presidential candidate who almost made it.

~~mindscape landmark~~
carlo arvisu

SWS-Business World poll: jejomar binay’s phenomenal rise to 2nd makes him a contender in VP race

looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.

the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.

that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time.  unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.

the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.

we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.

pulse asia march 2010 vice-presidentiable survey – mar roxas dominates, binay surges up

mar roxas continues to dominate, with 43%  maintaining a wide margin versus loren legarda who is a far second at 23%, almost one half of roxas’ rating. legarda’s deteriorating rating seem to mirror the same trend her presidential partner manny villar is experiencing in the poll.

there is a huge difference in quality of ads between the legarda and roxas ad campaigns.  legarda runs this melodramatic, slow and boring tv ads with weak to nowhere strategy versus mar roxas, uplifting, engaging and very real tv ads.  when you see legarda’s tv ads – you feel like crying but you do not know if you want to cry because of her meaningless message and flat line tone of the ads or out of pity that she is running such crappy tv ads. it is hard to imagine what possessed her to run such ads.

the other news here is the surge of jejomar binay who gained +4% points. this maybe due to the wider exposure he has been getting through the numerous sorties they have been doing around the country.

the curious case of gilbert teodoro cutting ad spending

at the start of official campaign period, gilbert teodoro cut his ad spending to almost zero to only P60T while previous period, he spent a total of P407M, second highest spending to villar’s top spending. (read here : presidentiables spend P2B on advertising. top spenders – villar 1st, teodoro 2nd and aquino 3rd)

we do not understand this move.

teodoro’s poll ratings have been stagnant within the 5% to 7% range since last year. it has not shown any improvement and has kept him at a far 4th with now villar moving up to tie aquino at top place and estrada moving up as well.

with ratings like these, the thing to do is change the ads and increase spending behind it. teodoro has done the exact opposite. he has been going through the provincial rounds but that cannnot compensate for mass media advertising. cutting down on ad spending in this scenario will only see teodoro’s ratings remain the same low 4th to further decline.

makes us wonder:

• is teodoro  not in this campaign to win this  election?
• true to previous “complaints” and pronouncements by himself and edu manzano – their political party lakas-kampi-cmmd has ran out of funds? at the start of the campaign??
• they adapting a miracle strategy where they will do a blitz at the end of the campaign?

need to call oliver stone…..

Teodoro cuts spending on political ads, but not Villar
by Lira Dalangin-Fernandez

INQUIRER.net
First Posted 15:07:00 03/04/2010

MANILA, Philippines – (UPDATE) Presidential candidate and Senator Manuel Villar continues to be the biggest spender of political advertisements at the start of the campaign period last month, already spending some P120 million, according to an advocacy group, citing figures from a media research firm.

In data by AGB Nielsen Media Research from February 9, the start of the official campaign period, until March 2, Villar remained number one among the top five candidates in the presidential race, shelling out P120, 411,093 for 195 minutes of airtime, according to Libertas in its forum Pera’t Pulitika (Money and Politics) Thursday.

Former president Joseph Estrada is second with P88 million for 128.50 minutes, followed by Senator Benigno Aquino III with P87 million for 180 minutes. Senator Richard Gordon is at fourth with P67.3 million for 144 minutes, and in fifth place is administration standard bearer Gilbert Teodoro with P60,480 for 1.5 minutes of airtime, the research firm was quoted as saying.

Among the five candidates, it was Teodoro who considerably cut down on his spending on political ads based on data also from AGB Nielsen, which ranked him second behind Villar, spending P407 million during the pre-campaign months from Nov. 1, 2009 to Jan. 31, 2010. Villar spent P1 billion during the same period.

presidentiables choose history, the hometown; teodoro chooses feng shui

today is the formal start of the campaign period for national positions. presidentiables launched their campaigns:

• noynoy aquino and mar roxas chose tarlac, the aquino hometown
• manny villar and loren legarda chose laguna, the birthplace of hose rizal
• erap estrada and jejomar binay had theirs in plaza miranda, the traditional miting de abanse venue for generations of politicians
• richard gordon and bayani fernando chose cavite, home to gordon’s hero ancestors
• gilbert teodoro and edu manzano chose antipolo because of feng shui. wth?

Teodoro was advised by friends, including feng shui experts, that Antipolo would be a good venue to kick off his campaign, said Reggie Velasco, deputy secretary general of the Lakas-Kampi-Christian Muslim Democrats.

“They said that the place is nice, the flow of air is good. Being in the east of Manila, it is where the sun shines, and because the place is elevated, Gibo will be situated on top where he can see the entire Metro Manila and neighboring areas,” Velasco said in a phone interview.

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20100205-251447/Teodoro-brings-faith-feng-shui-into-campaign-kickoff

we were shocked to read about teodoro’;s choice and most specially his reason from choosing antipolo city. he prides himself with being a harvard graduate and a bar topnotcher and now we find out feng shui is his choice.

pulse asia december 2009 vice-presidentiables poll – mar roxas and loren legarda a virtual tie

mar roxas and loren legarda are on a virtual tie in this poll. this is a much harder read and a more interesting one. while their national totals are on a virtual tie, how they got there are very different.

roxas’ strengths are NCR and visayas which are legarda’s weaknesses. legarda’s strength is luzon while that is roxas’ weakness. there seem to be a clear divide among the voters for both of them in specific areas. it would be interesting to know what the explanations are for the disparities.

there is also a clear disparity between the two on socio-eco class. mar roxas’ strength is at the NCR while it is legarda’s weakness.

official comelec list of candidates – Nicanor Perlas removed as official candidate for president

just got this from abs-cbn’s tv patrol world – nicanor perlas was not included as official candidate for president by the comelec.

Included in the list of official presidential candidates are: (8 out of 99)
1. Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III
2. Olongapo City Councilor Juan Carlos “JC” de los Reyes.
3. Former president Joseph Estrada
4. Sen. Richard Gordon
5. Sen. Ana Maria Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal
6. Former defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro
7. Sen. Manuel Villar
8. Bro. Eddie Villanueva

For vice-president, the candidates approved by Comelec are: (8 out of 20)
1. Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay
2. Ang Kapatiran bet Dominador Chipeco Jr.
3. Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando
4. Sen. Loren Legarda
5. Actor Edu Manzano
6. Sen. Manuel Roxas
7. Journalist Jay Sonza
8. Former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto Yasay Jr.

For senator, the candidates approved by the poll body are: (58 out of 158)
1. Nereus Acosta Jr. – LP
2. Sharuff Ibrahim Albani – KBL
3. Zafrullah Alonto – Bangon Pilipinas
4. Ana Theresia Baraquel – LP
5. Jv Larion Bautista – PMP
6. Martin Bautista – LP
7. Silvestre Bello III – Lakas Kampi Cmd
8. Rozzano Rufino Biazon – LP
9. Bong Revilla – Lakas Kampi Cmd
10. Henry Caunan – PDP Laban
11. Pia Cayetano – NP
12. Rizalito David – Ang Kapatiran
13. Joey De Venecia – PMP
14. Miriam Defensor Santiago – People’s Reform Party
15. Franklin Drilon – LP
16. Juan Ponce Enrile – PMP
17. Jinggoy Estrada – Pmpt
18. Ramon Guico – Lakas Kami Cmd
19. Teofisto Guingona III – LP
20. Jo Aurea Imbong – Ang Kapatiran
21. Kata Inocencio – Bangon Pilipinas
22. Alexander Lacson – LP
23. Raul Lambino – Lakas Kampi Cmd
24. Rey Langit – Lakas Kampi Cmd
25. Yasmin Lao – LP
26. Lito Lapid – Lakas Kampi Command
27. Alma Lood – KBL
28. Apolinario Lozada – PMP
29. Regalado Maambong – KBL
30. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr – NP
31. Liza Maza – Independent
32. Ma Judea Millora – KBL
33. Ramon Mitra – NP
34. Ramoncito Ocampo – Bangon Pilipinas
35. Satur Ocampo – Bayan Muna Party
36. Susan Ople – NP
37. Sergio Osmeña III – Independent
38. Jovito Palparan Jr. – Independent
39. Imelda Papin – KBL
40. Zosimo Paredes – Ang Kapatiran
41. Gwendolyn Pimentel – PDP Laban
42. Rodolfo Plaza – NPC
43. Reynaldo Princesa – Bangon Pilipinas
44. Ariel Querubin – NP
45. Ralph Recto – LP
46. Gilbert Remulla – NP
47. Ma. Gracia Riñoza-Plazo – Ang Kapatiran
48. Sonia Roco – LP
49. Adrian Sison – Ang Kapatiran
50. Vicente Sotto III – NPC
51. Adel Tamano – NP
52. Reginald Tamayo – Ang Kapatiran
53. Hector Tarrazona – Ang Kapatiran
54. Francisco Tatad – Grand Alliance For Democracy/Gabaybayan
55. Alexander Tinsay – Bangon Pilipinas
56. Manuel Valdehuesa Jr. – Ang Kapatiran
57. Hector Villanueva – KBL
58. Israel Virgines – Bangon Pilipinas

source: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/12…ential-vp-bets

finally someone agrees to be gilbert teodoro’s VP running mate – edu manzano

game ka na ba?

the long wait is over – at last someone has agreed to be gilbert teodoro’s VP runningmate – edu manzano. manzano is more know for being an actor/tv show host and the ex-husband of vilma santos. he used to be vice mayor of makati but his most recent government role is as chair of the Optical Media Board. we see him around town raiding stalls of pirated CDs and computer software.

we do not know if there was some kind of process that LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD applied to choose manzano but we doubt if there was one. they will probably say there was and that edu came out as the best choice, but the truth is the ruling/admin party had not choice. all of the politicians they wanted to be teodoro’s VP backed out, even his own party mate, secretary ronaldo puno and manzano’s ex governor vilma santos.

lets see how the tandem of teodoro and manzano will work out. actors in nationally elected positions  based on the last election tended to bomb ouot. maybe manzano will break the trend.

just think – edu manzano vs loren legarda vs mar roxas???? well….

gilbert teodoro’s “we do not haves” – is the writing on the wall?

the writing on the wall started to appear very early for gilbert teodoro. his selection as standard bearer by the executive committee of his party LAKAS-KAMPI-CMMD was not greeted by applause and excitement by the general public. people almost fell asleep when they read the selection in the papers. they did give a collective reaction, they asked – “gilbert who?”, but that was just about it. that was not yet the writing on the wall, it was just a small footnote.

day after the announcement was made, the first few words of the writing appeared, no longer a footnote. aside from teodoro being  chosen, the news came with the selection of ronaldo puno as his VP running mate. the first writing that appeared one day after the announcement was – “we do not want puno as VP running mate of teodoro”. ouch.

this writing on the wall, the first one, became bigger as days and weeks went by. the party members wanted anyone except puno. governor vilma santos was the first name to be placed on that wall. then other names came up fast and quick – loren legarda, chiz escudero aand gwen garcia of cebu. but as quick as those names were written on the wall, the same people they wanted quickly wrote on the same wall – no, they do not want to be the VP running mate of teodoro.

at around that time, another set of writing started to appear – “do we really want gilbert teodoro as presidential candidate”?.

the biggest writing on the wall appeared in october when the SWS released its 3QTR presidentiables survey where teodoro was at the bottom while noynoy aquino was the dominant front runner at a phenomenal 60%. the fear and insecurity expressed earlier that teodoro was the wrong choice and destined to lose the election  became the predominant writing on the wall.

this cascaded down to the issue of finding a VP running mate for teodoro. the party members and their officers had changed the criteria for choosing one, to now they need to find a VP running mate who is popular enough to shore up the candidacy of teodoro. it is no longer to find a running mate with just good qualifications, it became specific someone who will help teodoro who they now recognize and verbalize as very weak and trending for a loss in the election.

ronaldo puno added a big exclamation point in this wall – he resigned from the ruling party all together  and said he no longer wants to be in politics. puno was a most enthusiastic VP wannabe in the their party, so all this came as a big surprise.

new names were written down, some with and some without star quality – loren legarda was still part of it, edu manzano, ace durano, bong revilla. then one by one, they wrote their reply on the wall – legarda will probably be with villar. ace durano said he was not interested and will probably run for senate. manzano will join the LP to be with noynoy aquino. ouch!

the lakas-kampi-CMD is scheduled to have a convention on november 19 and as of this writing they still do not have anyone who has actually agreed to be teodoro’s VP running mate.

aside from the VP running mates running away from teodoro, many of his partymates are running away from the party to join villar’s NP or aquino’s LP. the defections appear to be huge and this will certainly add to the mood and tone of their convention on november 19.

on the 19th, the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD members might as well read these on the wall : “We do not have a viable presidential candidate, he is at the bottom of the polls. We do not have a VP yet. We do not have a  political party at all. We do not have a chance to win.”

With all of these “we do not haves”, we suspect the LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD convention will not be a happy and perky one.

—-

breaking news, click to read:

• Zubiri also rejects VP offer
• Revilla turns down Lakas VP offer