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both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

June 17, 2013 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

  • 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
  • 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
  • 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
  • adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
  • only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

Final Election Results 2013

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.

twitter followers of 2013 Senatoriables – how many are real, how many are fake?

March 16, 2013 Leave a comment

we came across an interesting website on twitter the other day (courtesy of @Simply_Clinton) – twitter audit (http://www.twitteraudit.com/). the website analyses a twitter account’s followers and determines what portion are “real” followers and what is “fake”.

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we assume “real” followers are other twitter accounts with individual humans behind them that follow a twitter account. they are acquired over time who follows an account based on a match on interest, point of view, tweets that are simply interesting or where to get information from.

“fake” followers are bots (internet robots) who are added to the list of followers just to add numbers to the followers list. the thinking is that, the more followers have or the greater the number of followers, the more popular the twitter user/account is. we have all heard of a twitter following contest of some sort between the likes of justin bieber and lady gaga for example. that is the whole idea behind it.

we are guessing someone having a bigger number of followers will feel important or encourage others to follow the person.

apparently, there are internet services from whom you can buy twitter followers. social media practitioners apparently do this all the time for their clients. when you hire a social media practitioner, adding or padding your follower list is one of the things they do for you.

with this in mind, we ran some 2013 senatoriables twitter accounts to find out what is the ratio of “real” vs “fake” twitter followers they have on their accounts.

we do not know if these politicians actually “bought” followers and we are not even giving an opinion on it. maybe they are all “real” followers and that the twitteraudit.com is wrong or giving us bad data or they have a large number of twitter followers whose accounts have become dormant for a long time. these things happen. and we really do not know how accurate or reliable twitteraudit.com is.

take these with a grain  salt, decide on your own what they mean.

for good measure, we also put here our own (@wawam) twitter audit and other politicians who are active on twitter. looking at the other audit results will give you a better gauge of what the data all mean for the rest.

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dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll

March 11, 2013 1 comment

not much has changed among the top 3 ranking senatoriables, legarda, escudero and cayetano alan peter from previous poll.

for this february 2013 pulse asia 2013 senatoriables survey, 15 senatoriables are competing for the top 12 position. in order of highest to lowest ranks as follows:

  1. legarda (Team PNoy)
  2. escudero (Team PNoy)
  3. cayetano alan peter (Team PNoy)
  4. villar, cynthia (Team PNoy) 
  5. ejercito (UNA)
  6. aquino, bam (Team PNoy)
  7. binay (UNA)
  8. poe (Team PNoy)
  9. pimentel (Team PNoy)
  10. honasan (UNA)
  11. enrile, jack (UNA)
  12. trillanes (Team PNoy)
  13. angara (Team PNoy)
  14. zubiri (UNA)
  15. gordon (UNA)

6 senatoriables  are battling for the last 3 positions, the 10th to the 12th, senatoriables honasan, enrile, trillanes, angara, zubiri and gordon who are all tied.

at the bottom among the candidates of the two major coalition parties, UNA and Team PNoy, are mitos magsaysay and tingting cojuangco  both from UNA. their rankings have not changed from previous.

among the 15 candidates fighting for the top 12 spots, 9 are from Team PNoy and 6 are from UNA.

among the top 9, only 2 are from UNA (binay and ejercito) while the rest are from Team PNoy. among the 6 who are battling for the last 3 spots, 4 are from UNA and only 2 are from Team PNoy.

with those rankings, if elections were held today, Team PNoy has a chance of gaining 9 out of the 12 seats at best or 7 out of 12 at worst, a clear majority of the seats.

Team PNoy has generally done very well in this survey.

pulse asia feb2013

source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDNGJWVXpKN0ZhZU0/edit

dramatic increases in rank and rating were gained by aquino and poe, both by +9 places who are now tied at 4th place from previous survey at 13th place; and +11.8 percentage points and +11.2 percentage points, respectively.

3 senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating, 1 from Team PNoy, trillanes and 2 from UNA, enrile and zubiri.  all three lost 5 places in the rankings although all three still came within the top 12.

pulse rank feb2013

 

 

pulse rank UNA feb2013

 

 

 

pulse rating Pnoy feb2013

 

 

pulse rating UNA feb2013

 

 

 

senatoriable Cynthia Villar’s “room nurse” statement angers pinoy nurses from all over the world

March 3, 2013 26 comments

this is the statement by cynthia villar from that video that got pinoy nurses, apparently from all over the world, very angry at her.

Ang sinasabi namin sa kanila na ‘actually, hindi naman kailangan ng nurse na matapos ang BSN (BS Nursing). Kasi itong mga nurses, gusto lang nilang maging room nurse,” Villar said, as she responded to a question posed by Winnie Monsod.

“(Kasi) sa Amerika or sa other countries, ano lang sila parang mag-aalaga… Hindi naman kailangan silang maging ganong kagaling,” she told Pagsubok sa mga Kandidato aired over GMA News TV.

source : http://ph.news.yahoo.com/villar-draws-nurses–ire-with-controversial-statement-043702029.html

pinoy social media was abuzz for two days now about it.

for us, the crucial question was – what did she mean by “room nurse”? is there such a classification or job as “room nurse”? we had tweeted the question to cynthia villar but we have had no answer from her yet.

we are not a nurse nor from the medical field, so we do not know anything about nurses and nursing. how is a “room nurse” different from the other nurses? we know of emergency room nurses, operating room nurses and pediatric nurses but we have not heard of the “room nurse”.

we assume the nurses who go to our hospital rooms are fully trained and experienced on medicine and science, not just fixing bed sheets. they do give us medicine, injections and IVs so we think that demands medical training.

villar seem to regard the “room nurse’ as similar to a hotel’s chambermaid whose job function is to clean and keep the hotel room in order from linens and everything else in the room. with that thinking, villar seem to be saying “room nurse” students will not need “technical” training or schooling on medicine and science.

to us the role of the “room nurse” who go to our hospital rooms is as important as the doctors who see us in keeping us healthy. in fact the nurse is on duty 24/7 while the doctor visits their patients at most twice a day for a few minutes to half an hour at the most on each visit. the nurse who is available 24/7 will need to make judgement calls when something happens to the patient, so we think her knowledge and skills go beyond bed sheets.

both cannot make mistakes and both need to be good at their jobs. they perform different jobs but their success or failure have the same impact on the patients they take care of. we also think both need training although not in the same degree on medicine and science.

but we are guessing that is what villar meant. the question goes back to what we said – is there a real job category such as a “room nurse” in the context that villar meant?

this was the explanation of villar after her statement became viral in social media.

Villar issued a statement after her answer went viral on social networking sites.

“The issue was really beyond me. I just interceded as chairperson of the House Committee on Higher and Technical Education. I have no power neither over CHED nor the nursing schools. As I said, my conciliatory efforts were overtaken by events—the charges filed by the schools against CHED officials,” she said

. “The 30-second limit for me to answer the question posed on the news program was too short to give the complete details surrounding the issue. I hope that this statement will clarify the issue. I am sorry if it has created confusion. Thank you,” Villar added.

source : http://ph.news.yahoo.com/villar-draws-nurses–ire-with-controversial-statement-043702029.html

we do not think her statement actually answered anything, specially the things that got many pinoy nurses  angry about or got insulted from. some are even wondering whether villar thought  “RN” meant “room nurse” instead of “registered nurse”. the answer is way off and did not seem to have an understanding of what the issues are and what were insulting in her statement. she seemed to have explained and apologized for the wrong thing.

this is an unfortunate statement from cynthia villar specially that she has positioned herself as the “job creation” senator. in fact, her advertising calls her as “mrs. hanepbuhay”. she is so serious on it that she even went through the trouble of asking the COMELEC to agree to include “hanepbuhay” as her “alias” on the official ballots we will be using for the election. we will be reading that alias beside her name.

this episode though shows a huge disconnect (same word winnie monsod used in that interview) in that a senatoriable who positions herself as the “job creation” senator is unable to appreciate the job and profession called “nursing” and laborers called “nurses”.

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this was the facial reaction that winnie monsod showed while senatoriable cynthia villar mentioned her “room nurse” statement

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we wanted to get to the bottom of what a “room nurse” is. we think the used of that term is the crux of the matter. thanks to @alvindakis. here is what we got:

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this morning, march 4, 2013, @cynthia_villar issued this apology:

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with 47% of voters not completing 12 senatoriables, dynasty candidates & re-electionists enter top 12

March 3, 2013 Leave a comment

source : http://www.sws.org.ph/

based on this SWS 2013 Senatorables survey – 47% of voters cannot complete all 12 senatoriables while an equal number, 47% can complete all 12. (balance 6% are undecided or made invalid markings).  on average, all voters will just be able to write down 9 names for the 12 senatoriable slots.

we think 47% unable to complete all 12 is a huge number. what that may are the following :

  • there is not enough 12 “good men” among the 33 senatoriables running for office. most are unworthy of being elected
  • not enough information about the candidates are reaching voters for them to complete the 12. this is just the start of the campaign period, let us hope this will change soon.

although still on the early stages of the campaign, at this point in time, these are the candidates who are benefiting from this situation and are getting better chances at getting elected :

  • dynasty candidates – children, siblings or spouses of elected officials who are running for senator
  • incumbent senators running for reelection  

based on the survey, of the top 12, 6 are candidates for reelection – legarda, escudero, cayetano, pimentel, trillanes and zubiri. we consider zubiri for reelection since he did serve a term in the senate. a large number in the top 12 are dynasty candidates –   villar, binay, ejercito aquino and angara. only 1 senatoriable, poe does not belong to any one of these groups.

the results of this survey would be so different if the 47% who did not complete the 12 spots would complete their list.

dynasty candidates are running on the basis of having the same family name as elected officials, that gives them a built-in advantage of being remembered more easily and have better chances of getting elected. not completing your list of 12 makes that advantage work for them for real.

completing the list of 12, say with names who are not re-electionists or dynasty candidates will have the effect of pushing down the dynasty candidates from the top 12.  

dramatic drops for UNA & dramatic increases for Team PNoy in february SWS sentatoriables survey

February 28, 2013 2 comments

the latest february 2013 SWS survey, on the 2013 senatoriables is characterized by dramatic drops and dramatic increases in rankings and/or ratings by some senatoriables. the dramatic drops are  all on UNA senatoriables while the dramatic increases were  on Team PNoy senatoriables.

this survey results are grim and bad news for many UNA senatoriables and for the whole party and great news for  Team PNoy and  specific senatoriables.

this is how bad it is for the UNA senatoriables :

  • 9 out of the top 12 senatoriables belong to the admin PNoy coalition with the UNA opposition getting only 3
  • 3 UNA senatoriables dropped out of the top 12 while 2 from  Team PNoy barged into the top 12
  • 6 out 12 Team PNoy senatoriables gained in rank (aquino, poe, villar, madrigal, trillanes and angara), 6 stayed the same (cayetano, escudero, hontiveros, legarda, magsaysay r, pimentel)
  • 6 out of 9 UNA senatoriables declined in rank (honasan, ejercito, enrile, gordon, maceda, zubiri), only 2 gained (binay, magsaysay)  while 1 stayed the same (cojuangco)

SWS PNoy Rank

SWS UNA Rank

  • 5 in 12 of the Team PNoy senatoriables gained in ratings (aquino, madrigal, poe, trillanes, villar), 4 stayed (angara, escudero, hontiveros, pimentel) while only 3 lost cayetano, legarda, magsaysay r). these three losses were minimal with 2 losing only 1 percentage point while the 3rd lost 2 percentage points
  • on the other hand, 7 out of 9 senatoriables of UNA lost ratings (cojuangco, ejercito, enrile, gordon, honasan, maceda, zubiri), 1 the same (magsaysay m)  and only 1 gained (binay).
  • most of the dramatic loses in rankings and/or ratings were suffered by the UNA senatoriables – jv ejercito, migz zubiri, jack enrile, gringo honasan and ernie maceda
  • consequently, most of the dramatic gains in ranking and ratings were gained by Team PNoy senatoriables – grace poe, bam aquino, jamby madrigal and cynthia villar
  • no changes occurred for UNA bottom dweller mitos magsaysay, tingting cojuangco and ernie maceda

sws PNoy Rating

sws UNA Rating

what can explain the dramatic loses by the UNA senatoriables?

we think its a brand positioning blunder by UNA. we read it first from statements from mitos magsaysay where she said UNA wanted “aquino to succeed” and that their role is to give “constructive criticism”. (read here: malacanang delivers THE BOMB on senatoriable mitos magsaysay)

a few days after that, jv ejercito basically said the same thing, plus the UNA spokesman. some of them even said UNA was not necessarily an opposition party. instead of saying they are an opposition party, they were saying things like they will be “fiscalizers”. why then would voters favor UNA when the president himself has his own set of senatoriables?

these were very confusing statements by the UNA senatoriables and the UNA party. people must have wondered  if UNA was not the opposition party, what are they then? that can mean they are part of the administration. if they are part of the administration, why do they have competing senatoriables to that of the admin party?

this was a very basic and fundamental blunder by UNA. instead of differentiating  themselves against Team PNoy, they were actually making themselves similar to their opponents. two of the key elements of brand building is uniqueness and differentiation versus competition. instead of achieving those, they were actually making themselves similar. the result is UNA’s brand positioning became invisible in the eyes of the voters. being invisible allows the voters to only see Team PNoy.

Team PNoy released their TV ads soon after. statements by jv ejercito and the UNA party in reaction to the TV ad did not help the party either and made it worst for them.

Ejercito explained where UNA stands when it comes to the Aquino administration. They support his platform of good governance but they want to keep the Senate as an independent institution to keep the administration in check.

“We admit that the President is very popular. We have supported the President on his thrust for good governance. But sometimes when you are too popular, you do not know anymore the pulse of the people,” he said.

http://www.rappler.com/nation/21139-jv-ejercito-to-team-pnoy-why-the-impostor-tag

ejercito’s words explain the problem UNA created for  themselves. he did say the party supports aquino in his platform of good governance. aquino was elected by a landslide vote and continue to be the country’s most popular president on the basis of a good governance election promise and actions during his term. ejercito simply acknowledged aquino is doing well which we think to many voters would mean they should favor the senators aquino is supporting.

UNA was not defining themselves in the mind of the voters. what they were doing instead was propping up even more an already popular president and this president has his own list of senatoriables.

in marketing and advertising, you never talk about your competition, you talk about yourself and how good you are and what you can do that competition cannot. if you talk about competition, you do so only to show their weakness or failure. in this case UNA was not even mentioning any failure or weakness of aquino or Team PNoy. ejercito even praised the achievements and strengths of aquino.

UNA’s blunder is not just very bad brand positioning, we think its really a detrimental strategic blunder. we are guessing that they did research and found out that noynoy aquino is a very popular president and that noynoy aquino is the strongest endorser in philippine politics bar none.

UNA was unable to figure what they can do to counter this high popularity of noynoy aquino. we think their biggest error is thinking that since aquino is very popular, they should not go against him. and that thinking is very much like giving up on the election even before it started.

 this kind of results in the surveys with the kind of competition and smarts or lack of smarts by UNA is not surprising. Team PNoy must be very pleased with the way UNA is handling their campaign.

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source of SWS survey :    http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=&title=Team-PNoy-takes-the-lead-in-latest-SWS-BW-poll&id=66397#

Team PNoy takes the lead in latest SWS-BW poll

2013 Senatoriables Poll now open – vote here

February 16, 2013 5 comments

welcome to The Presidentiables Blog 2013 Senatoriables Poll!

the list only has the major senatoriables running for the 2013 election. the list is short of the 30+ official candidates for senators. the pictures of the senatoriables with different sizes and shapes were hardly chosen as they were picked up from whatever our friend Google Image gave us.

this is an unscientific poll given that no random sampling has been done and there was no vetting of respondents. anyone with an internet connection can cast their vote in this poll. obviously only those with an internet connection are the respondents in this poll which is hardly reflective of the actual voting population.

but candidates and supporters can use the results for bragging rights.

they can also use the poll results as a gauge of the size of the support candidates are getting out of netizens. respondents who vote here are social media users and they can be harnessed to promote the candidacy of senatoriables. as it has been shown in the most recent months, Philippine netizens who are in social media is a very potent force who can influence national life and behavior or attitudes of national leaders. a candidate who gets higher votes than others here can say they have bigger netizen support. the question then is how can this candidate harness the netizen support for more support in the internet and how to make this spill over to traditional media and real world voting by election time.

make your vote count! you will be given only 12 votes in this list. come back here from time to time and find out who is being chosen by readers of this blog.

thank you all and good luck, senatoriables.

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please read comments for updates in this poll.

VOTE HERE

notes :

  • the software will allow you to vote for a maximum of only 12 candidates.
  • after you cast your vote, you can click “view results” if you are not taken to the results portion
  • poll opened on february 16, 2013
  • poll will close on day before election day
  • follow us on twitter -> @wawam

note that the pictures here are arranged in alphabetical order based on their first name. that is nearly scientific.

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if you have a twitter account, please use these hash tags:

2013 hash tags

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