we are reacting to these statements made by the teodoro campaign officials about the chances that that teodoro can still win this election.
MANILA, Philippines—Though he remains a poor fourth in the surveys, administration standard-bearer Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro should not be counted out of the presidential race, Malacañang said Tuesday.
“There’s no reason for anyone to throw in the towel,” Gary Olivar, deputy presidential spokesperson, told reporters. “People, when they start campaigning, they should be serious about it.”
it is the late stages of the campaign and for teodoro to continue to get only single digits ratings in the poll does say it is time to throw in the towel.
changes in voter attitudes do not happen fast – it takes time for the messages to reach the voters and it takes time for the voters to act on them.
even on that one, there is no assurance that the voters will react favourably to your message. the other candidates are doing their own efforts which probably already has reached the intended voters.
for those in the laggards group like teodoro, the task is not just to get his message to reach voters, but more than that, it is to convert them to his side.
conversion is one of the most difficult tasks in marketing. conversion is much harder than persuasion.
Olivar advised the public to wait for the results of the next survey, which he said would cover the March 26 kick-off of the local campaign and factor in the political machinery of the administration coalition.
“We have the word of administration party spokespersons and leaders that we will start to see the effects of their grassroots strength after the local campaign started on March 26,” he said.
this is a very tall promise.
the only way teodoro will turn the tide in his favor is he has done something massive, something different and something really smart in the last few weeks since that last poll was taken. we did not see teodoro doing anything earth shaking during the time.
the local “political machinery” is a myth the ruling party keeps saying whenever they are losing in the polls. to them it is really no more than a made up silver bullet.
political machinery did not deliver and in fact was non-existent in the last senatorial election where almost all the opposition candidates won seats and almost all the admin candidates lost.
the reason for the loss? gloria macapagal arroyo. and that reason continue to be present now and in particular with teodoro who has been given the kiss of death.
Party secretary general Francis Manglapus said the surveys would not reflect the true sentiments of voters until 10 days before the end of the campaign period, when the electorate had made a firm choice.
“This thing is far from over,” he said by phone.
Manglapus, who said he doubted the “science” behind surveys, agreed that the surveys had failed to take into account such factors as “command vote” and “regional strength.”
surveys capture voter sentiments at the moment of the survey. have several survey points and you can connect them to form a trend. the trend for teodoro is not a good thing.
“command vote” and “regional strenght” are cute new words to say “political machinery” which as we have said previously is a myth.
it is strange that the impact of political machinery is being portrayed here like a switch or a faucet where it’s effects are felt only when it is switched on.
these local officials who are supposed to form the political machinery has always been in their locality from the very beginning. why has their impact not been picked up by the polls? it appears they have not been doing anything and will only start on the official start of the local campaign.
if the impact of the local machinery is not being felt now, it will not be felt 2 months from now during the election.
“We just started to send out our message last Friday,” he said, referring to the start of the local campaign. “We’re just starting to crank the machinery.”
if this is true, then this party is in trouble for it’s mismanagement and poor strategizing in this election. they knew from the very beginning that teodoro was an underdog in this election. knowing that, the smart manager should have started this much earlier.
Manglapus, however, conceded that the delayed move to air advertisements on television and radio contributed to Teodoro’s poor ratings. He disclosed that the party would step up the airing of these ads and the road shows.
the problem with teodoro’s adveritsing is not just being late in airing them. first of all, we disagree – they were not late at all. they were aired at about the same time as the other front runner aquino.
the problem with teodoro’s ads is that they were bad commercials and that they do not have enough money to air them. ad people will tell you, however, that even if teodoro had the same amount of money villar ad, it will not help at all since the ads are weak.
“The election is 40 days away, and the local campaign has just started. Now the real movement and growth of our campaign by leaps and bounds will be seen,” he said.
this is fine IF teodoro do not have competition. teodoro’s campaign is not in a vaccum. he competes with other presidentiables. so it will not happen.
the teodoro campaign needs a large dose of reality.
with just a few weeks left in this campaign, manny villar’s rating in the most recent SWS poll should be taken as a huge ref flag being raised on the villar bid for the presidency. this is the first time that we are seeing villar’s rating take a dip. it has been consistently going up over the months.
coming at this late stage is particularly worrying as it leaves very little time for the campaign to first find out what is causing it and equally important to do something about it.
villar has tied aquino as front runner only after many months of campaign activities and millions of advertising peso way ahead of the official start of the election campaign. this front runner status did not come easy for villar. now having such a short time to recover is cause for worry.
we think it is the C-5 controversy that is causing this weakness in villar’s poll rating. it is finally catching up on him. it does not help that aquino, his co-leader started airing tv ads that were single minded on corruption. those ads of aquino created a very clear contrast between the two campaigns.
the road to recovery for villar lie exclusively on this – finding out what is causing the deterioration in the poll ratings. not getting that right will make his efforts worthless. they need to do something very different in the next few weeks left in this campaign. doing more of the same will not help villar, it will even be counter productive.
this march 19-22, 2010 SWS poll is interesting. this is just less than two (2) months before election time and fresh from a previous poll that saw some movements. this poll has movements and they are mostly on villar who dropped 6% points and estrada gaining 4% points. aquino who showed weakness in the previous poll in this one showsstaying power, just gaining 1% points.
aquino should be satisfied with this result somewhat – he has arrested the decline in his rating and maintained his front runner status. his lead over villar moved up from a statistical tie to a statistically significant lead of +9% points. but he should not totally celebrate nor should he feel they have done right in their efforts as this lead was mainly brought about by villar going down in the ratings rather than aquino gaining in them. in other words, aquino’s increasing lead over villar is not his doing but it is the undoing of villar.
villar dropped -6% points in this poll from previous. we think this is the momentum of the negative effects of the C-5 controversy that was headline fodder in the recent past. villar has not really addressed this issue adequately. all that villar did was change the topic and just left it hanging in the air. villar might feel confident that the C-5 issues is technically over for him but it may still be lingering in the minds of the voters. this is a ticking time bomb that his opponents jusyt might continually light up till election time.
estrada for all his worth gained in this poll by +4% points from previous. at now 19% in this poll, this puts him close to villar where only 9% points separate them. if erap gains another 4% points in the next poll, this will put him within distance of being a strong contender in this election. by virtue of this latest rsult, erap is clearly the underdog in this election.
the other laggards, teodoro, gordon villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not changed their ratings. this is not surprising as these presidentiables have not done much or anything different since the last poll and in fact for most even reduced their efforts while the front runners sustained if not increased their efforts.
presidential elections are no different from mass consumer marketing – don’t do anything or don’t do anything new and your market share will stay if not decline. doing something, a lot of something and something new is a pre-requisite to brands with weak market shares if it wants to gain market share. if these brands with weak market shares do nothing, the market leaders will continue to strengthen as they will not stop their marketing efforts. with just two months till election time, it is getting pretty close to a point of no return for them.
Aquino opens up lead versus Villar
LIBERAL Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has opened up a nine-point lead over his nearest rival for the presidency, fellow legislator and Nacionalista Party bet Sen. Manuel “Manny” B. Villar, Jr., based on the results of the latest BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations Pre-Election Survey.
Mr. Aquino picked up a point to score 37% and further benefitted from a six-point loss for Mr. Villar, now at 28%, in the March 19-22 poll conducted just before campaigning for local posts began last Friday. The gap between the two frontrunners was just two points, within the error margins used, a month earlier.
Spokesmen for both pointed to retweaked strategies working or needing further adjustment, and analysts have said local-level campaigning – where endorsements by their parties’ bets will ostensibly add a new dimension – could change things anew with still a little over a month and a half left to go before the May 10 elections.
Former President Joseph M. “Erap” Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, meanwhile, gained four points to 19%, narrowing his gap with Mr. Villar to nine points from 19 previously.
Administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remained in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.
There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the “presidentiables”: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).
we are publishing here full article from PDI’s Talk Of The Town to get to know the presidentiables’ stand on issues. (source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/talkofthetown/view/20100327-261174/Stand-on-Charter-change-Arroyo-as-Speaker)
MANILA, Philippines—Every president after the Aquino administration supported moves to amend the 1987 Constitution. Fidel Ramos tried it through Pirma, a signature campaign that sought to lift term limits; Joseph Estrada through Concord (Constitutional Correction for Development) that pushed for allowing foreigners to own land; and President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo via a signature campaign and later through a constituent assembly that called for a shift to a parliamentary form of government.
Will the next President also push for Charter change (Cha-cha)?
Know their stand from their answers to the following questions:
Are there provisions in the 1987 Constitution that need to be amended? If yes, what are these? Why?
Are you in favor of a shift to a parliamentary form of government? If yes, what mode (constitutional convention, constituent assembly or people’s initiative aka signature campaign)? When do you think the country should adopt a parliamentary government? Why a parliamentary system?
Would you support President Macapagal-Arroyo should she seek the speakership in the House of Representatives? Why? [Ms Arroyo is running for representative in her home province, Pampanga.]
Benigno Aquino III
The need for amendments to the Constitution, and whether there’s a public clamor have yet to be determined. I will support the creation of a body to determine these. If the Constitution must be amended, it should be through a constitutional convention.
The current administration more than anything else has shown us that the 1987 Constitution has loopholes that could be abused in order to stay in power. I am in favor of tightening the Constitution against these abuses at the start of the presidential term to avoid suspicion of foul play.
Nobody has presented yet an argument that makes a parliamentary shift urgent which shows that the country is really at risk with the present form of government that you have to change it.
No (I will not support President Macapagal-Arroyo should she seek the speakership in the House of Representatives.).
Having Ms Arroyo as the Speaker would make it hard for us to find closure to all of the anomalies of her administration. The Liberal Party and our allies in the House will oppose her plans. Submitted by Aquino’s staff
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino
Didn’t I start that with Concord? The provision on the ownership of land except agricultural land. I will let foreigners own land. The only ones benefiting from the current provision are big-time realtors like the Ayalas. They buy several hundreds of thousands of hectares and speculate. In the meantime the property remains idle.
If we allow foreigners to come in, there will be competition. If foreigners are allowed to buy land, they will develop it. Jobs will be generated. At the same time, we will collect taxes on idle lands.
No (I’m not in favor of a parliamentary form of government.). This is the only time that the marginalized people or the masa can have that equality with the elites to elect a President.
Under the parliamentary set-up, the masa will not be able to elect the President they want. It will be their representatives.
I am amenable to a parliamentary form with a strong President, who will be elected (by the voters).
If I have my way, I prefer a constitutional commission. I’ll let all sectors—the farmers, workers—choose the best five among them. Thirty percent will come from the academe—the retired deans of UP, Ateneo.
A constitutional convention would be very expensive. Besides, the politicians would again come in. The politicians would again win there.
(GMA as Speaker) is so demeaning to the Office of the President. In the first place, she should not run for any office. She has become the President for nine years, longer than the six-year term under the Constitution. That’s more than enough.
She will have undue advantage. That’s why the incumbent President is prohibited from running for reelection. She will have undue advantage over any opponent because of government resources at her command. It’s the same thing she did to FPJ. She used Pagcor, the PCSO, public works, road users’ tax, agriculture, fertilizer funds. She used the police. She used the military. Interview by Norman Bordadora
There is a lot to amend in our Constitution. First, do we want a presidential or parliamentary form of government?
If it’s parliamentary, then we should have a multi-party system. If it’s presidential, we should have a two-party system. But I think the parliamentary system is not suited to us.
Look at how we quickly change our minds on our Presidents and how quickly our congressmen change loyalties. We should consider the parliamentary system once we have developed a true party system.
Second, I want the bill of duties and obligations for citizens to be amended. When I take over the government, I will set the tone. The people have rights but they also have duties.
Third is in terms of land use. I will open up foreign investments in land but they should not own mineral, forest or agricultural lands. They can go on joint ventures. And if they get commercial or residential lots, they cannot sit on it for three years. They have to utilize it.
Fourth, I would open up media for foreign participation so we will really have a competitive media and better paid journalists to remove the AC-DC (attack-collect and defend-collect) culture. We don’t really have a free press. Whoever has the money plays the tune. Maybe not all the media, but certainly we all notice this.
Fifth, I would remove the constrictions on bases or bringing in foreign troops to our country. Why are we voluntarily restricting ourselves from calling on an ally to help us? Do we still have to amend the Constitution if we are invaded or if we have a problem?
Sixth, I will also remove term limits except for the President. I would like local government leaders to have six-year terms. The voters should be the one to decide the term limits.
If she (GMA) is elected member of the House Representatives, she can be a Speaker. I would not necessarily support her. I would look for a better alternative. I don’t even favor her running for Congress.
But how will I deal with a House with GMA as Speaker? The President has plenty of powers. The Speaker is always subject to the President’s favor. Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.
I personally believe that a review might be warranted since the Constitution was made when the Philippines, the world and the circumstances were different. However, I leave it up to our people.
If elected, I will consider calls for Charter change but that will not be a priority. The tools are available to improve institutions to spur economic and political development. The next President must first get the trust and confidence of the people by acting immediately to address the more pressing needs such as jobs and opportunities, food, shelter and security. Whether or not there will be a clamor to change the Constitution, it should not be a cause to divide the nation.
The economic provisions should be reviewed to ensure that citizens will benefit in the form of long-term opportunities and to make the country competitive for foreign investment.
(On the shift to a parliamentary form of government), I have no preference one way or another because I see our country’s problem as more a lack of leadership.
No (I won’t support GMA should she seek the speakership.) She is not my party mate and I will support a Nacionalista Party candidate for Speaker to ensure that the party’s objective of poverty alleviation can be carried out legislatively. Submitted by Villar’s staff
Nicanor Perlas who is pursuing a platform based on integrated sustainable development has specifically declared his direct platform for Muslims in the Philippines.
These platforms primarily includes the following:
- provision of holistic, integrated, and comprehensive support for ecological agriculture development in Muslim areas;
- the delivery of basic social services to the poorest Muslim communities and provinces;
- the appropriate revival of the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) negotiations;
- the overhaul of the National Commission on Filipino Muslims (formerly the Office of Muslim Affairs or OMA) to ensure proper assistance to all Muslims especially facilitating the reduction of plane fares to Mecca in connection with Hadj;
- the appropriate support of Muslim schools or Madrasas; and
- the establishment of hallal slaughterhouses in Muslim towns.
Perlas vows to establish a government which is for all and ensures the participation of various sectors of society. He is also the first ever presidential candidate who lays down concrete programs for Muslims.
this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.
gilbert teodoro, the standard bearer of the admin/(supposed) dominant political party LAKAS-KAMPI-CMD know that he is losing this election campaign. he has not moved up in any significant way in the polls, being stuck at a very far fourth in the rankings and getting at best 7% while the front runners are at a staggering 36% for aquino and 34% for villar. it is bad enough that the two front runners are way ahead of everybody, on top of teodoro is estrada who is in the range of 15% , showing strength at that level and even gaining slightly.
the question that teodoro’s campaign needs to answer is this – for him to win, where will he get the votes from? the weakest of the three front runners, erap estrada is not exactly weak. among the presidentiables, estrada is the candidate that has the most experience and time as an elected government official not to mention he was actually elected president once before. teodoro compared to erap looks puny. if teodoro can’t get pat estrada, how does he expect to get past villar and aquino, the two most popular presidentiables in this campaign?
it is interesting that an article appeared at the PDI yesterday where the teodoro campaign seem to be preparing for what the writer calls a “battle of the bulge” – a last minute, well last few weeks campaign to get teodoro elected. in marketing, it is called a marketing blitz. in a political campaign it’s most likely called a “failed election bid”.
we will be using that article as a pick up point for this post.
The ruling coalition, which enjoys a headlock on 70 percent of local government positions, is pinning its hopes on superior resources and widespread party machinery to swing the tide of battle.
Banking on these advantages, it plans to assert its superiority with carefully synchronized offensives timed at the start of the campaign for local positions on March 26.
this is what party officials call the “political machinery”. it’s supposed to be potent that only the admin/ruling party has a monopoly on. all the party officials, including teodoro are saying that is what will make him win this election. they conveniently forget that in the last senatorial elections, they said the same thing about the potency of THE machinery. the results – almost all the admin/ruling party senatorial best lost in that election while almost all the opposition senatorial bets won the election.
the results of that election was so bad for the admin/ruling party that pichay who spent the most in advertising during that time did not get elected while trillanes who was in jail, unable to campaign and practically had zero advertising money won the election.
the opposition won that election mainly on the basis of the people exercising a protest vote where they elected the opponents of arroyo’s candidates. arroyo at that time was very unpopular and the people have had enough of her so much so that they even said they do not want her candidates to win.
after the election, LAKAS party officials admitted the machinery did not deliver. apparently the local candidates and officials of LAKAS abandoned the admin senatorial candidates when they felt the people were going against them.
the situation then compared to now is about the same – arroyo is unpopular and in fact probably even more unpopular than before. everyone knows teodoro is arroyo’s candidate and based on surveys, voters said they will not elect the candidate that arroyo is endorsing.
we think it’s foolish to rely on the “machinery” to get teodoro elected. the machinery is a myth.
The opening salvo of this make-or-break offensive will be new TV commercials targeting the youth on Monday.
Teodoro’s spokesperson, former Press Secretary Mike Toledo, said the commercials would be aired with frequencies rivaling those of the front-runners, Senators Benigno S. Aquino III of the Liberal Party and Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party. Between them, they have spent close to P2 billion, dominating the airwaves, according to the media firm AGB Nielsen.
Teodoro’s ads will zero in on the target segment that the coalition hopes will swing the tide of battle to his side, the youth ranging in age from 18 to 39, who constitute 52 percent of the 50 million voters registered, according to Toledo.
Teodoro has been doing well in mock elections in schools recently. Campaign strategists have selected this key segment to focus on, Toledo says.
political campaigns seem to have a love affair with the youth vote. all of them seem to think that is the key to their success. villar, aquino and villanueva aired tv ads targeting them. but if you look at the movements of villar’s ratings, it is not the ad that targeted the youth that earned him a lot of points, it’s the other ads that he aired.
aquino with his rap tv ad meant for the youth got mixed reviews with people liking it and others throwing up hearing aquino do a rap in the tv ad. they abruptly pulled off that ad. villanueva aired one too but that did not help him either.
teodoro did not seem to learn the lessons the other presidentiables learned – they will air an ad targeting the “youth” on monday. we now think this obsession with youth ad is probably the fault of the admen hired by the campaigns for their ad needs. all of them seem to be saying the same mantra.
maybe teodoro will find the secret weapon in ads for the youth and can get him to win the election. it is good in theory, forgetting for the moment the failures of the other presidentiables, but we think teodoro’s thinking is fatally flawed.
the critical failure in the ad that will be aired on monday for the youth is the demographics definition – “age from 18 to 39“. the age range is too wide and probably covers at least two distinct groups or even three. the psyche, needs and attitudes of the 18 year old, a first time voter is very different from a 25 year old who probably has a young family already to someone who is 30 years old who has a not so young family. for sure a 37 to 39 year old is extremely different from an 18 year old, to a 23 year old and a 30 year old.
it is hard for us to understand and we think it is not possible to have an ad meant for the “youth” that will be effective in convincing this wide and un-alike age grouping of 18 to 35 years old.
the admen who sold the idea to the teodoro campaign spoke badly in thinking that an age range as wide as that is a proper segmentation of the target audience. we do not think you will find any adman who will agree to that kind of segmentation.
target audience definition is the very first critical step in developing an effective tv ad. get the definition wrong, or even weak and the ad fails. it will confuse the creative team as it gives them too wide a range with very dissimilar traits and characteristics.
we await this new ad of teodoro. it is supposed to be a miracle tv ad for him. given the potential flaw of the thinking, it will either be a miracle ad or a miracle dud. we will probably see a WAWAM! on monday.