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both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

June 17, 2013 Leave a comment

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

  • 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
  • 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
  • 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
  • adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
  • only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

Final Election Results 2013

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.

ABC socio eco class gives aquino satisfaction ratings rebound, hits highest level in his presidency

September 7, 2012 2 comments

the rich or the ABC socio-eco class has come back big for president noynoy aquino – his over-all satisfaction rating went up on the exceptional ratings given by the them. satisfaction rating by the ABC jumped from 54% to 84%, dissatisfaction dropped to just 6% from 29% and consequently the net satisfaction rating increased to +78%.

the increases  in the satisfaction ratings and decreases on the dissatisfaction ratings favored aquino across the board but it was the ABC socio eco class that gave the biggest movements.

Record rating for Aquino

BY NOEMI M. GONZALESReporter

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S.C. Aquino III has rebounded to the highest so far for his administration after falling to a personal low in May, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) said in a new report.

Mr. Aquino’s net satisfaction score rose 25 points to a “very good” +67 in an August poll from the “good” +42 three months earlier, with 77% of respondents saying they were satisfied with his performance, up from 63% in May. Those who said otherwise accounted for 10%, an improvement from the 21% previously.

The Aug. 24-27 survey, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, showed Mr. Aquino’s best marks yet since he took office in mid-2010. His previous high was a “very good” +64 in November 2010.

His latest score compares to the personal bests of former presidents Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (+30, March 2004), Joseph Ejercito Estrada (+67, March 1999), Fidel V. Ramos (+69 , July 1993) and Corazon C. Aquino’s all-time high of +72 in October 1986.

The SWS classifies net satisfaction scores of +70 and above as excellent; +50 to +69, very good; +30 to +49, good; +10 to +29, moderate, +9 to -9, neutral; -10 to -29, poor; -30 to -49, bad; -50 to -69, very bad; -70 and below, execrable.

read in full here: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=Record-rating-for-Aquino&id=58089

63.9% of pinays risk unplanned pregnancy – FPS

October 2, 2011 Leave a comment

mother of all polls on RH Bill – join the poll, let your voice be heard

May 18, 2011 15 comments

SWS poll (march 2011) – aquino satisfaction rating suffers a significant drop, the good news and the bad news

April 2, 2011 Leave a comment

a 13 point drop in the satisfaction rating of  president aquino is statistically significant. on it’s value it can be a cause of concern for aquino.  malacanang or aquino’s handlers are saying it is a concern.  as a knee jerk reaction to the 13 point drop, feeling concerned is understandable but they need to look at the number within the framework of other factors and data that is available to them.

first of all, a drop in satisfaction ratings is expected. no president, even aquino can sustain a high rating through the lofe of the presidency.  aquino started at a net satisfaction of  +60, then moved up to +64. because it moved up to +64, the most recent +51 took a much larger drop of -13 points. if this was pegged at +60, the +51 would have been just a -9 pts drop only.

previous presidents’ satisfaction ratings also showed drops at different periods of their presidency. that just goes to show it is expected that it is impossible to expect that people will perpetually be happy with the president. the beginning of the term of the president always starts on a high note. the people just elected the president, there will be a halo effect on the satisfaction rating of  any president during months after the election.  it is called the honeymoon period. after the honeymoon, people see the real president with the halo effect from the recently concluded election campaign.

looking at the satisfaction ratings of past presidents,  aquino’s most recent rating of +51 and his highest of +64 may be the lowest compared to the highest ratings of past presidents aquino (+69), ramos (+69) and estrada (+67), these ratings are much higher than the highest rating than what arroyo ever got (+30).  in fact arroyo’s satisfaction rating record is the worst among all the presidents with arroyo getting minus satisfaction ratings for 25 out of 43 ratings. arroyo’s best rating is at +30 . aquino’s latest rating of +51 is a much more impressive than arroyo’s best.

what that means is that aquino’s presidency so far is serving the people much better than his predecessor, arroyo.

Ratings drop for Aquino

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s performance has fallen and controversies such as his purchase of a luxury car apparently have not helped, a new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey found.

Most Filipinos still approve of Mr. Aquino but his latest net satisfaction rating is down 13 points to +51 (69% satisfied minus the 18% dissatisfied) from November’s +64 (74% satisfied, 10% dissatisfied), results of a March 4-7 poll made exclusive toBusinessWorld showed.

Interviewed on the issue of the president’s purchase of a Porsche late last year, nearly half or 48% said it was not a good example for the chief executive of a country like the Philippines, notwithstanding details such as the car was not brand new and that Mr. Aquino had used his own money.

A political analyst warned that results pointed to “uneasiness,” while Malacañang said a dip in Mr. Aquino’s numbers had been expected following his overwhelming election win last year.

Scores in all areas but one, socioeconomic classes and gender were down from November last year. In Luzon, urban areas, among the ABC class and among males, Mr. Aquino particularly saw his net ratings dip into “good” territory from “very good.”

read more here: http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?title=Ratings%20drop%20for%20Aquino&id=28754

noynoy aquino reverses trend and sets record in performance satisfaction rating

November 30, 2010 Leave a comment

 

Record score for Aquino gov’t

Net rating at ‘very good’ +64 from Arroyo administration’s final ‘bad’ -45

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with the government has hit a new high, bouncing back from depths plumbed during former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s term and erasing a record set during the Estrada administration.

A new Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, the results of which were made exclusive to BusinessWorld, had 73% of the respondents saying they were satisfied with the new government’s general performance versus the 9% who said otherwise.

This gave President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s administration a “very good” net satisfaction rating of +64, beating the previous record of a “good” +36 notched in November 1998 during Joseph E. Estrada’s term.

The result also marked the reversal of a run of negative net scores — culminating in a record low -45 last March, classified by the SWS as “bad” — posted starting December 2007 by the Arroyo government.

The SWS qualified that its surveys of the national administration’s general performance began in 1989, three years into the term of the current president’s mother, Corazon C. Aquino, “and therefore no longer during her honeymoon period.”

Mr. Aquino is just five months into his six-year term.

A Palace spokesman said the results were welcome and gave assurances that the Aquino government remained committed to fulfilling expectations.

http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=22061

bad news for mar roxas – both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls show a Jejomar Binay win

May 15, 2010 Leave a comment

the current COMELEC and GMA7 unofficial partial tally of votes put jejomar  binay and mar roxas to close to call with a spread of only 800T votes with binay leading but 6 million votes still uncounted. binay has claimed victory, saying only an electronic garci can change the outcome while roxas says he will win by a squeaker when the votes from visayas are counted, roxas’ bailiwick. both are saying these are based on reports from their supporters who are in the field.

however, both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls point to a binay win with pulse asia giving it to binay with a 5.3% points margin. with a 1% sampling error, that puts binay a slight winner. SWS gives it to binay a 2.4% points margin.

roxas saying the visayas as his bailiwick is being confirmed by the pulse asia exit poll where he dominates with 54.7% versus binay’s 25.4%. however, binay dominates roxas almost with the same large margin in all other areas – NCR, Luzon and Mindanao. 

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=720

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

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