latest SWS presidentiables poll for the 2016 election has put a dazzling surprise – Mar Roxas an erstwhile low 3rd in the previous survey has jumped to 2nd place and in the process pushing down Jejomar Binay to 3rd.
not only the improvement in ranking was the big surprise, the numbers are amazing, from the previous poll putting roxas at 21%, roxas catapulted to 39%, a giant leap of +18%.
binay who used to be 2nd now sits at 35%, almost the same as the previous poll at 34%. the 1% point difference is not statistically significant.
source : http://www.sws.org.ph
however, roxas’ lead over binay, +4% points is statistically significant from binay with the +/- 3% points margin of error.
what happened? what caused the phenomenal increase in rating and standing of mar roxas?
we think what drove the impressive increase is the endorsement of president aquino of roxas’ candidacy to the presidency. the SWS survey was conducted september 2 to 5 which was very close to the announcement of Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas that happened on july 31, 2015 at club filipino. it was a big event as it got full media coverage and was in the news that evening and succeeding days. it has been highly speculated that aquino will endorse roxas, the actual announcement was highly anticipated by everyone.
aquino is the country’s most popular president. no other president was able to gain the kind of very high ratings that aquino has gotten. this high level began at the start of his presidency and was continued on through the years. even aquino’s low ratings were much higher than arroyo’s ratings which almost always stayed on the negative. arroyo is one of the country’s most unpopular president while aquino is the country’s most popular president.
the incumbent president’s endorsement seem to have a lot of power, negative or positive, in philippine politics.
president arroyo endorsed gibo teodoro but since arroyo was one of the country’s most unpopular president, that endorsement became a kiss of death for teodoro.
cory aquino’s endorsement of fidel ramos we think was one of the reasons ramos got elected. cory was and is one of the country’s most popular and beloved presidents. today, cory is considered a hero by many.
aside from aquino’s endorsement, we think the other driver for roxas’ surge in the polls is “daang matuwid”. daang matuwid was the campaign platform of noynoy aquino when he ran for the presidency, one that he won on a landslide. aside from the 2010 campaign, this was also used by aquino as central and often the headline of aquino’s governance.
right after the endorsement of aquino, roxas immediately proclaimed that he will continue “daang matuwid” and in fact Roxas ran TV ads on “daang matuwid” one day after he was endorsed by aquino. in speeches aquino identified roxas as the person who he thinks will continue and has the competence to continue “daang matuwid”.
corruption in government which daang matuwid is going against appear to continue to be a top issue among voters. it also helps one of the key aspirants for the presidency is being alleged as a serial and multiple corrupt government official, vp jejomar binay. binay to this day has not answered or made an effort to dispel the alleged charges of corruption.
this is turn is perhaps the reason why binay has been sliding in the polls. binay’s drop to third is the second for binay. he used to be at the top of the polls before the alleged corruption charges were revealed at the senate,
we had underestimated the power of president aquino as endorser and the idea of “daang matuwid”. we expected improvements but we dd not see it happening in this grand scale.
the momentum is with roxas. poe’s momentum has been stopped and binay may have stabilized. a continuing surge by roxas and a decline in base support for poe and binay can win him the presidency.
SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)
SWS survey detail
8 April 2011
First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes
Social Weather Stations
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.
The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” [“Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons.”]
To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].
They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).
- Jane Addams (1860-1935)
- Corazon Aquino (1933-2009)
- Rachel Carson (1907-1964)
- Coco Chanel (1883-1971)
- Julia Child (1912-2004)
- Hillary Clinton (1947-Present)
- Marie Curie (1867-1934)
- Aretha Franklin (1942-Present)
- Indira Gandhi (1917-1984)
- Estée Lauder (1908-2004)
- Madonna (1958-Present)
- Margaret Mead (1901-1978)
- Golda Meir (1898-1978)
- Angela Merkel (1954-Present)
- Sandra Day O’Connor (1930-Present)
- Rosa Parks (1913-2005)
- Jiang Qing (1914-1991)
- Eleanor Roosevelt (1884-1962)
- Margaret Sanger (1879-1966)
- Gloria Steinem (1934-Present)
- Martha Stewart (1941-Present)
- Mother Teresa (1910-1997)
- Margaret Thatcher (1925-Present)
- Oprah Winfrey (1954-Present)
- Virginia Woolf (1882-1941)
kris aquino is in tears on this one. she is in her most plain hairstyle, simple clothes, simple make up and we see the tears and the pain that kris is going through as kris aquino the popular tv host, daughter of ninoy and cory aquino and now the sister of noynoy aquino, the presidentiable.
is it election time or is it awards night for acting?
MANILA, Philippines – Kris Aquino, the youngest sister of presidential aspirant Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, on Sunday turned emotional as she defended herself from constant criticisms thrown at her ever since the election fever began.
Apparently fed up from always being the target of harsh comments, Kris disclosed that she even contemplated of leaving entertainment talk show “The Buzz.”
The host, whose personal life has always been a subject of scrutiny and is said to be a liability to Noynoy’s candidacy, said she consulted her 3 female siblings – Ballsy Aquino-Cruz, Viel Aquino-Dee, Pinky Aquino-Abellada – about her plan since it should be a “family decision.”
She said she excluded Noynoy because her brother is not used to the world of show business.
“Sinabi ko sa mga kapatid ko, tao lang ako talaga. And I said this election parang lahat ng kagalit ni ‘Noy kung may kailangang pintasan, ako parati. Tapos sinabi ko kay Ate parang mababaliw na ako kasi mababasa mo na parang ikaw na ang pinakawalanghiyang tao sa mundo,” she said.
“Ginagalang ko ang pagka-presidente dahil alam ko kung ano ang sinakripisyo ng tatay ko at nanay ko para magkaroon tayo ng demokrasya,” said the youngest daughter of former president Corazon Aquino and Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.
who can argue with success? these are all very familiar images for most we have seen them on tv and for some we were there when these things happened but for all we re-experienced it all of it again recently when cory aquino died and we were all out on the streets saying good-bye to cory.
(click here : http://1millionprayers.wordpress.com/)
these images did something to us and we can;t escape the fact that noynoy aquino and his presidential bid sprang it. to a few they were not conscious of it but for most we asked noynoy to run for president.
seeing these images and hearing these words are difficult to argue with. they are already embedded in our hearts and minds and this ad serves to remind us that they exist there.
we have a nasty suspicion that this ad was developed as a direct answer to manny villar’s emotional ads of his brother dieing because they had no money to buy medicine for him. that villar ad in the minds of the admen in the aquino camp must have thought villar’s tv ad was soliciting empathy with the voters. their answer is to “out-empathize” villar by reminding people about two, not one emotional event in noynoy’s life – noynoy’s dad was assassinated and his mom got sick and died in front of us.
that thought this ad being a direct answer to villar’s emotional tv ad immeditaely came to us after hearing the first sentence noynoy said in this ad – “Kami rin inapi nang walang kalaban-laban.”. a few bells rang in our mind when he started the sentence with “kami rin”. question – sino yung ibang inapi? answer – villar when his brother died without the benefit of medicines.
that thinking must have brought goose bumps to the creative team who thought about it but we think it’s really amateurish thinking on their part. it is also quite a cheap trick to do. they will not win any award soon on strategic thinking on this one. we do not think it will even be nominated for “The Strategic Thinking Award Of The Year”.
will it be effective? that is the question that is even more difficult to answer. from the point of view of getting more votes for noynoy, i think it will to some degree but i do not think it will be of much significance.
whether the aquino campaign knows it or not, noynoy’s campaign has moved away from these messages and strategy. if it was not conscious of the move, his competitors, most specially manny villar who is co-front runner made sure of that.
this we think is a very good tactical ad but we do not think this has legs to be the main brandsell advertising for the aquino campaign. putting this as the main brandsell tv ad we think is a major strategic blunder by the aquino campaign.
weak, poor and failed strategic thinking is what we think is the greatest weakness of the aquino presidential campaign. that is most obvious in the waste they allowed to be made when from a high of 60% in preference to the 47% in presidential choice, aquino’s ratings had consistently gone down seeing it now on a statistical tie with manny villar.
that alone tells the weakness in strategic planning for the campaign for squandering such a huge lead over his rivals. the aquino campaign group was given on a silver platter a brilliant and superior product to sell but they did not know what to do with it and lost the leadership.
the ads are creative and well done. the writing is close to crisp and almost memorable and the production values are excellent but the strategic thinking is where they fail. the strategy laid down seems to look at just ads, almost as stand alone ads when they are supposed to be running a campaign with a beginning, a middle and an end. there is no continuity in strategic thinking nor is there any worth in it.
they fall in love with creative executions and get stuck there, completely forgetting that ads and most specially campaigns that succeed are those that begin with a brilliant strategy and heads up thinking.
we do not know what is next to this ad but we hope there will be more . we hope this is just a tactical ad and that we will see the main thematic or brandsell very soon. running tv ads will not make them win, it is running an ad campaign that will.
the key questi0n – who can argue with success or are we arguing with boredom?
~~ a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~
ps: a note on production values : the director should have seen that noynoy’s brows are forming at the center of his forehead making it look like noynoy is angry while the emotion in this ad should have been serenity, sincerity and concern.
negative campaign tv ads : gilbert teodoro did it first & what ferdinand marcos & john mccain have in common with gilbert teodoro
the last time negative advertising was aired in the philippines by politicians was when cory aquino ran against ferdinand marcos in the 80’s, the pre-event to the The People Power EDSA Revolution.
marcos aired ads that depicted cory as just a “housewife”, saying she does not know anything about running a country. cory of course in truth was just a housewife when she ran against marcos in the election. she did not hold any elective position or any government position before that time. what marcos forgot and the people never did was that cory was the widow of ninoy aquino who was assassinated at the tarmac when he returned home from exile in the US.
a most powerful man in marcos cheating just a housewife in cory in the elections was just too much for the people to take. the people kicked the dictator out of the country and installed the housewife in malacanang.
that negative ad, a first in philippine politics back-fired.
this 2010 election has a kind of negative advertising. this ad was aired by gilbert teodoro.
(read full write up here: gilbert teodoro’s “galing at talino” tv ads – anti-noynoy, anti-humility, generic promises)
in these ads, the announcer voice-over says “dapat lider na hindi lang puso ang alay kung hindi galing at talino“, an obvious reference to noynoy aquino., the expected front runner during the time the ad was first aired.
it is mild and indirect but we do not think anyone missed the reference to aquino. the ad points out aquino’s inadequacy to be president and attempts to discredit the strength of aquino in this campaign. having just “puso” was positioned here as not enough or inferior and compared to teodoro’s strength which were enumerated in this ad. the whole ad except for that single line talked about the credentials of teodoro. it positions teodoro as superior to aquino.
this ad of teodoro is the only political ad in this whole presidential campaign that makes a reference to an opposing candidate and a negative tv ad.
we can’t say for sure that this negative ad of teodoro backfired for him but we do know his ratings at the polls have put him at best 5% while aquino remained the front runner in this election.
we disagree with the way this ad has been done. the attempt at discrediting aquino was too mild and of no consequence in this ad. it’s an ad that is neither here nor there. we think if they really wanted to draw the attention to teodoro’s superiority over noynoy or noynoy’s inferiority to teodoro, they should have gone all the way. doing it in this piecemeal almost forgotten way will not do anything for teodoro but only eat precious seconds. they could have removed that line and the ad would have worked as well. they could have used the freed seconds to add more good qualities of teodoro like having a hot wife or that he drives a BMW 7-series.
in the US negative TV ads are more direct and biting and has no qualms in mentioning the other candidate by name. in fact these ads talk about the opposing candidate and at the end puts to question the other candidate’s credentials or capabilities.
these ads are against barack obama aired by john mccain meant to stop the momentum that obama was enjoying at that time. negative tv ads are usually aired when an opposing candidate is very much leading in the polls and needs to be stopped. it’s very much like a hail mary pass where close to the election, the candidate airs negative tv ads hoping it will spark a rally among his supporters and recruit new ones.
results of negative ads are mixed in the US. some worked and brought down candidates and some didn’t. political strategists have always said it is very risky but for a candidate who is not doing well, it is surely very tempting to do. this mccain negative ad against obama obviously did not work.
interestingly enough, these anti-obama negative ads aired by mccain are very much applicable here in the philippines against noynoy aquino or at least that is the negative campaign the presidentiables are saying during debates and press interviews.
are we going to see negative ads soon?
The celebrity backers of Barack Obama say
they are not like Paris and Britney.
[ Los Angeles Times – July 31, 2008 ] :
TO HOLLYWOOD it smacked of desperation.
That’s why the reaction to a new John McCain ad attempting to portray Barack Obama as a kind of mindless celebrity — likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears — drew collective yawns and shrugs of irritation from politically active members of the entertainment industry.
Just for a start, industry types say the ad is wrong: In the Hollywood lexicon, Obama is not a celebrity. He’s a rock star. (Note to McCain strategists: That’s the difference between Jessica Simpson and Bono.)
Then there’s the small inconvenience that Paris’ parents, Rick and Kathleen Hilton, are supporters of McCain’s Republican presidential bid. According to federal campaign records, they gave the maximum $4,600.
No word on their plans for the general election, but this much is certain: Their daughter has never paid to attend an Obama campaign fundraiser. (It’s unclear whether she’s even met the senator, or whether she’s even registered to vote. The same goes for Spears.)
McCain’s latest attempt at discrediting his handsome, photogenic young rival particularly galls stars and executives with a memory, because only eight years ago, McCain was a fixture in Hollywood fundraising circles when he tried to raise money from the very people his ad now ridicules.