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Roxas catapults to #2, beats Binay, all behind Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”

September 21, 2015 Leave a comment

latest SWS presidentiables poll for the 2016 election has put a dazzling surprise – Mar Roxas an erstwhile low 3rd in the previous survey has jumped to 2nd place and in the process pushing down Jejomar Binay to 3rd.

not only the improvement in ranking was the big surprise, the numbers are amazing, from the previous poll putting roxas at 21%, roxas catapulted to 39%, a giant leap of +18%.

binay who used to be 2nd now sits at 35%, almost the same as the previous poll at 34%. the 1% point difference is not statistically significant.

Screen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.49.21 PM

source : http://www.sws.org.ph

however, roxas’ lead over binay, +4% points is statistically significant from binay with the +/- 3% points margin of error.

what happened? what caused the phenomenal increase in rating and standing of mar roxas?

we think what drove the impressive increase is the endorsement of president aquino of roxas’ candidacy to the presidency. the SWS survey was conducted  september 2 to 5 wScreen Shot 2015-09-21 at 1.57.31 PMhich was very close to the announcement of Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas that happened on july 31, 2015 at club filipino. it was a big event as it got full media coverage and was in the news that evening and succeeding days. it has been highly speculated that aquino will endorse roxas, the actual announcement was highly anticipated by everyone.

aquino is the country’s most popular president. no other president was able to gain the kind of very high ratings that aquino has gotten. this high level began at the start of his presidency and was continued on through the years. even aquino’s low ratings were much higher than arroyo’s ratings which almost always stayed on the negative. arroyo is one of the country’s most unpopular president while aquino is the country’s most popular president.

the incumbent president’s endorsement seem to have a lot of power, negative or positive,  in philippine politics.

president arroyo endorsed gibo teodoro but since arroyo was one of the country’s most unpopular president, that endorsement became a kiss of death for teodoro.

cory aquino’s endorsement of fidel ramos we think was one of the reasons ramos got elected. cory was and is one of the country’s most popular and beloved presidents. today, cory is considered a hero by many.

aside from aquino’s endorsement, we think the other driver for roxas’ surge in the polls is “daang matuwid”. daang matuwid was the campaign platform of noynoy aquino when he ran for the presidency, one that he won on a landslide. aside from the 2010 campaign, this was also used by aquino as central and often the headline of aquino’s governance.

right after the endorsement of aquino, roxas immediately proclaimed that he will continue “daang matuwid” and in fact Roxas ran TV ads on “daang matuwid” one day after he was endorsed by aquino.  in speeches aquino identified roxas as the person who he thinks will continue and has the competence to continue “daang matuwid”.

corruption in government which daang matuwid is going against appear to continue to be a top issue among voters. it also helps one of the key aspirants for the presidency is being alleged as a serial and multiple corrupt government official, vp jejomar binay. binay to this day has not answered or made  an effort to dispel the alleged charges of corruption.

this is turn is perhaps the reason why binay has been sliding in the polls. binay’s drop to third is the second for binay. he used to be at the top of the polls before the alleged corruption charges were revealed at the senate,

we had underestimated the power of president aquino as endorser and the idea of “daang matuwid”. we expected improvements but we dd not see it happening in this grand scale.

the momentum is with roxas. poe’s momentum has been stopped and binay may have stabilized. a continuing surge by roxas and a decline in base support for poe and binay can win him the presidency.

 

 

 

filipinos understand what “heroism” is in 9 out of 10, fails in 1

April 10, 2011 Leave a comment

SWS Survey Results : Mga Tunay Na Pilipinong Bayani (True Filipino Heros)

SWS survey

SWS survey detail

8 April 2011

First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey:
Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino
are top three most identified Filipino heroes

Social Weather Stations

Jose Rizal, Andres Bonifacio, and Ninoy Aquino are the top three most mentioned persons considered to be genuine Filipino heroes, according to the First Quarter 2011 Social Weather Survey, conducted from March 4-7, 2011.

The survey question was, “Sino-sino po ang mga taong kinikilala ninyong tunay na bayaning Pilipino? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang limang tao.” [“Who are the persons whom you consider a genuine Filipino hero? You can name at up to five persons.”]

To that, 75% named Jose Rizal, 34% named Andres Bonifacio, and 20% named Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. [Table 1].

They were followed by Cory Aquino (14%), Apolinario Mabini (14%), Emilio Aguinaldo (11%), Ferdinand Marcos (5.1%), Ramon Magsaysay (4.3%), Manuel L. Quezon (3.8%), and Lapu-Lapu (3.7%).

Read more…

Time Magazine names Cory Aquino one of top 25 Most Powerful Women of The Century

December 2, 2010 Leave a comment

noynoy aquino’s abundant political capital yields impressive job satisfaction rating

October 7, 2010 1 comment

latest SWS performance job satisfaction rating of the president gave president noynoy aquino an impressive +60% net satisfaction, with only 11% dissatisfied  and a 71% satisfied rating.

this high net satisfaction rating is in line with other previous presidents aquino, ramos and estrada who also got very high net satisfaction rating at the start of their presidency. arroyo was the only president who got a low satisfaction rating at the start of her administration.

it is expected that presidents at the start of their administrations get very high ratings, but what makes aquino’s high start of administration rating  impressive is that this comes just weeks from the bus hostage crisis at luneta that was a complete failure on the part of the government. the hostage rescue showed the police as incompetent, ill-equipped and generally does not know what it was doing during the hostage crisis rescue.

we were expecting the failed bus hostage rescue would affect aquino’s job satisfaction rating but apparently it did not. it appears the people do not see the bus hostage rescue failure as a failure of president aquino.

the opposition has said that this high satisfaction rating may be due to “post election euphoria” . that is a ridiculous notion. the election was in may, this survey was conducted in september, whatever euphoria aquino enjoyed from the election, it has all disappeared by september which is a good four months.

also the negative sentiments generated by the failed bus hostage rescue should have erased whatever euphoria may have been left over from the may elections.

the fact that aquino’s satisfaction rating started on a very high level may indicate that the people are truly satisfied with aquino’s performance or  the people has so much trust in the president that it is willing to ignore his failings, having so much faith that aquino will make good his election promise of good governance.

it appears aquino has accumulated a very high amount of political capital among the people built up during the election that he brought with  him going into his presidency. let us hope that aquino uses this as a  leverage to do good things for the people.

the kris aquino drama – to leave The Buzz TV show?

March 16, 2010 9 comments

kris aquino is in tears on this one. she is in her most plain hairstyle, simple clothes,  simple make up and we see the tears and the pain that kris is going through as kris aquino the popular tv host, daughter of ninoy and cory aquino and now the sister of noynoy aquino, the presidentiable.

is it election time or is it awards night for acting?

MANILA, Philippines – Kris Aquino, the youngest sister of presidential aspirant Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, on Sunday turned emotional as she defended herself from constant criticisms thrown at her ever since the election fever began.

Apparently fed up from always being the target of harsh comments, Kris disclosed that she even contemplated of leaving entertainment talk show “The Buzz.”

The host, whose personal life has always been a subject of scrutiny and is said to be a liability to Noynoy’s candidacy, said she consulted her 3 female siblings – Ballsy Aquino-Cruz, Viel Aquino-Dee, Pinky Aquino-Abellada – about her plan since it should be a “family decision.”

She said she excluded Noynoy because her brother is not used to the world of show business.

“Sinabi ko sa mga kapatid ko, tao lang ako talaga. And I said this election parang lahat ng kagalit ni ‘Noy kung may kailangang pintasan, ako parati. Tapos sinabi ko kay Ate parang mababaliw na ako kasi mababasa mo na parang ikaw na ang pinakawalanghiyang tao sa mundo,” she said.

“Ginagalang ko ang pagka-presidente dahil alam ko kung ano ang sinakripisyo ng tatay ko at nanay ko para magkaroon tayo ng demokrasya,” said the youngest daughter of former president Corazon Aquino and Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr.

read more here: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/entertainment/03/14/10/kris-aquino-says-fed-constant-criticisms

noynoy aquino’s “kayo ang aking lakas” tv ad – arguing with success or with boredom?

March 13, 2010 3 comments

who can argue with success? these are all very familiar images for most we have seen them on tv and for some we were there when these things happened but for all we re-experienced it all of it again recently when cory aquino died and we were all out on the streets saying good-bye to cory.

(click here : http://1millionprayers.wordpress.com/)

these images did something to us and we can;t escape the fact that noynoy aquino and his presidential bid sprang it. to a few they were not conscious of it but for most we asked noynoy to run for president.

seeing these images and hearing these words are difficult to argue with. they are already embedded in our hearts and minds and this ad serves to remind us that they exist there.

we have a nasty suspicion that this ad was developed as a direct answer to manny villar’s emotional ads of his brother dieing because they had no money to buy medicine for him. that villar ad in the minds of the admen in the aquino camp must have thought villar’s tv ad was soliciting empathy with the voters. their answer is to “out-empathize” villar by reminding people about two, not one emotional event in noynoy’s life – noynoy’s dad was assassinated and his mom got sick and died in front of us.

that thought this ad being a direct answer to villar’s emotional tv ad  immeditaely came to us after hearing the first sentence noynoy said in this ad –  “Kami rin inapi nang walang kalaban-laban.”. a few bells rang in our mind when he started the sentence with “kami rin”. question – sino yung ibang inapi? answer – villar when his brother died without the benefit of medicines.

that thinking must have brought goose bumps to the creative team who thought about it but we think it’s really amateurish thinking on their part. it is also quite a cheap trick to do. they will not win any award soon on strategic thinking on this one.  we do not think it will even be nominated for “The Strategic Thinking Award Of The Year”.

will it be effective? that is the question that is even more difficult to answer. from the point of view of getting more votes for noynoy, i think it will to some degree but i do not think it will be of much significance.

whether the aquino campaign knows it or not, noynoy’s campaign has moved away from these messages and strategy. if it was not conscious of the move, his competitors, most specially manny villar who is co-front runner made sure of that.

this we think is a very good tactical ad but we do not think this has legs to be the main brandsell advertising for the aquino campaign. putting this as the main brandsell tv ad we think is a major strategic blunder by the aquino campaign.

weak, poor and failed strategic thinking is what we think is the greatest weakness of the aquino presidential campaign. that is most obvious in the waste they allowed to be made when from a high of 60% in preference to the 47% in presidential choice, aquino’s ratings had consistently gone down seeing it now on a statistical tie with manny villar.

that alone tells the weakness in strategic planning for the campaign for squandering such a huge lead over his rivals. the aquino campaign group was given on a silver platter a brilliant and superior product to sell but they did not know what to do with it and lost the leadership.

the ads are creative and well done. the writing is close to crisp and almost memorable and the production values are excellent but the strategic thinking is where they fail. the strategy laid down seems to look at just ads, almost as stand alone ads when they are supposed to be running a campaign with a beginning, a middle and an end. there is no continuity in strategic thinking nor is there any worth in it.

they fall in love with creative executions and get stuck there, completely forgetting that ads and most specially campaigns that succeed are those that begin with a brilliant strategy and heads up thinking.

we do not know what is next to this ad but we hope there will be more . we hope this is just a tactical ad and that we will see the main thematic or brandsell very soon. running tv ads will not make them win, it is running an ad campaign that will.

the key questi0n – who can argue with success or are we arguing with boredom? 

~~  a mindscape landmark – carlo arvisu ~~

 

ps: a note on production values : the director should have seen that noynoy’s brows are forming at the center of his forehead making it look like noynoy is angry while the emotion in this ad should have been serenity,  sincerity and concern.

negative campaign tv ads : gilbert teodoro did it first & what ferdinand marcos & john mccain have in common with gilbert teodoro

February 22, 2010 22 comments

the last time negative advertising was aired in the philippines by politicians was when cory aquino ran against ferdinand marcos in the 80’s, the pre-event to the The People Power EDSA Revolution.

marcos aired ads that depicted cory  as just a “housewife”, saying she does not know anything about running a country. cory of course in truth was just a housewife when she ran against marcos in the election. she did not hold any elective position or any government position before that time. what marcos forgot and the people never did was that cory was the widow of ninoy aquino who was assassinated at the tarmac when he returned home from exile in the US.

a most powerful man in marcos cheating just a housewife in cory in the elections was just too much for the people to take. the people kicked the dictator out of the country and installed the housewife in malacanang.

that negative ad, a first in philippine politics back-fired.

this 2010 election has a kind of negative advertising. this ad was aired by gilbert teodoro.

(read full write up here: gilbert teodoro’s “galing at talino” tv ads – anti-noynoy, anti-humility, generic promises)

in these ads, the announcer voice-over says “dapat lider na hindi lang puso ang alay kung hindi galing at talino“, an obvious reference to noynoy aquino., the expected front runner during the time the ad was first aired.

it is mild and indirect but we do not think anyone missed the reference to aquino. the ad points out aquino’s inadequacy to be president and attempts to discredit the strength of aquino in this campaign.  having  just “puso” was positioned here as not enough or inferior and compared to teodoro’s strength which were enumerated in this ad. the whole ad except for that single line talked about the  credentials of teodoro. it positions teodoro as superior to aquino.

this ad of teodoro is the only political ad in this whole presidential campaign that makes a reference to an opposing candidate and a negative tv ad.

we can’t say for sure that this negative ad of teodoro backfired for him but we do know his ratings at the polls have put him at best 5% while aquino remained the front runner in this election.

we disagree with the way this ad has been done. the attempt at discrediting aquino was too mild and of no consequence in this ad. it’s an ad that is neither here nor there. we think if they really wanted to draw the attention to teodoro’s superiority over noynoy or noynoy’s inferiority to teodoro, they should have gone all the way. doing it in this piecemeal almost forgotten way will not do anything for teodoro but only eat precious seconds. they could have removed that line and the ad would have worked as well. they could have used the freed seconds to add more good qualities of teodoro like having a hot wife or that he drives a BMW 7-series.

in the US negative TV ads are more direct and biting and has no qualms in mentioning the other candidate by name. in fact these ads talk about the opposing candidate and at the end puts to question the other candidate’s credentials or capabilities.

these ads are against barack obama aired by john mccain meant to stop the momentum that obama was enjoying at that time.  negative tv ads are usually aired when an opposing candidate is very much leading in the polls and needs to be stopped. it’s very much like a hail mary pass where close to the election, the candidate airs negative tv ads hoping it will spark a rally  among his supporters and recruit new ones.

results of negative ads are mixed in the US. some worked and brought down candidates and some didn’t. political strategists have always said it is very risky but for a candidate who is not doing well, it is surely very tempting to do. this mccain negative ad against obama obviously did not work.

interestingly enough, these anti-obama negative ads aired by mccain are very much applicable here in the philippines against noynoy aquino or at least that is the negative campaign the presidentiables are saying during debates and press interviews.

are we going to see negative ads soon?

The celebrity backers of Barack Obama say
they are not like Paris and Britney.
[ Los Angeles Times – July 31, 2008 ] :

TO HOLLYWOOD it smacked of desperation.

That’s why the reaction to a new John McCain ad attempting to portray Barack Obama as a kind of mindless celebrity — likening him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears — drew collective yawns and shrugs of irritation from politically active members of the entertainment industry.

Just for a start, industry types say the ad is wrong: In the Hollywood lexicon, Obama is not a celebrity. He’s a rock star. (Note to McCain strategists: That’s the difference between Jessica Simpson and Bono.)

Then there’s the small inconvenience that Paris’ parents, Rick and Kathleen Hilton, are supporters of McCain’s Republican presidential bid. According to federal campaign records, they gave the maximum $4,600.

No word on their plans for the general election, but this much is certain: Their daughter has never paid to attend an Obama campaign fundraiser. (It’s unclear whether she’s even met the senator, or whether she’s even registered to vote. The same goes for Spears.)

McCain’s latest attempt at discrediting his handsome, photogenic young rival particularly galls stars and executives with a memory, because only eight years ago, McCain was a fixture in Hollywood fundraising circles when he tried to raise money from the very people his ad now ridicules.

noynoy aquino’s “hindi ka nag-iisa” tv spot – historic ad for a historic presidentiable?

October 30, 2009 57 comments

this ad has made philippine advertising history – it has the most number of tv celebrity endorsers  featured in one single tv ad. that says a lot about this ad. celebrity endorsers in tv ads is one of the most potent in the country and widely used by mass consumer products from fast food chains, detergents to sanitary napkins and just about anything else you see on tv. if mass consumer products use celebrity endorsers in their ads, why shouldn’t politicians? and in fact they did in the last elections so much so that a number of them got elected only because of the endorsers featured in their ads.   

the list of celebrities in noynoy’s tv ad is very extensive and we have to admit  very impressive. the set of celebrities in the ads appeal to very much the full spectrum of voters, across all demographics and psychographics with special focus on the masses and the young adult.

the ad is actually a song with a familiar message for at least among the older set. “hindi ka nag-iisa” is a line used in the 80’s first by ninoy aquino during his presidential run, then by cory aquino.

a recurring theme in the ad is the message of people coming out to support noynoy’s candidacy which is  one of the more relevant messages in the ad as it is probably one of the more real feelings of many voters.

the music is well done with great production values and sang with passion and excellent voicing by regine velasquez. some of the images however are too staged and bordering on the boring and contrive. on the over-all though the ad is well produced.

with noynoy already the run-away dominant leader in the most recent polls (60%), will this strengthen his position more and expand his voter base?

please read –> noynoy aquino to lose the election due to advertising blunders

join the poll, “who do you like best among the presidentiables?”. click here to vote and see the results: http://wp.me/pnw03-cr

join a poll, “3 presidentiables you will not vote and do not want to win the 2010 election“. click here to vote and see the results: http://wp.me/paTrm-12E

hindi ka nag-iisa

this ad works because it captures what a lot of people, ordinary folks have found themselves in – an other uninvolved voter who is now actively supporting a political candidate, noynoy aquino. 

that is basically what happened during the wake and burial of cory aquino – young and old came out to the streets to pay their respects for cory, even those who previously were not at all in mass actions like those.

the lyrics of the song says it all:

Nang bawa’t mamamayan
pagmamahal natin sa bayan
‘wag na nating itago, ‘di tayo susuko

the ad shows a long list of celebrities who have not been  previously seen coming together for any cause. more importantly, these are celebrities who we did not expect and certainly did not even imagine would come out to appear for a tv ad for the election of a president.

seeing them and all of them in one ad struck a chord in our hearts as many of us felt the same way – for the first time we are coming out of our shell to support a presidential candidate.

~wawam~

 

The stars (in order of appearance) are: Regine Velasquez, James Yap, Kerby Raymundo, Willie Miller, KG Canaleta (PBA player), Cyrus Baguio, Sharon Cuneta, Boy Abunda, Anne Curtis, Bianca Gonzales, Mariel Rodriguez, Erik Santos, Bea Alonzo, Dingdong Dantes, Ai-Ai delas Alas, Ogie Alcasid, Marian Rivera, Kris Aquino and Noynoy himself, together with Enrico Villanueva, LA Tenorio, and Larry Fonacier and Paulo Bugia (Ateneo players now with PBA) for the last shot.

“HINDI KA NAG IISA”
Composed by: Ogie Alcasid
Sung by: Regine Velasquez

Sasamahan ka namin
Kahit paligid ay madilim
Iilawan ang daan tungo sa magandang kinabukasan.
Ika’y mamuno,kami ay susunod
pagkakaisa’y ating itaguyod
ang Pilipinas ay naghihintay
handa kaming kumilos,handang umalalay.
Read more…

the pain of being gilbert teodoro, standard bearer of the ruling/admin party is standard zero

October 6, 2009 7 comments

 we know the kinds of problems gilbert teodoro, standard bearer of the ruling/admin party is facing in his quest for the presidency, but this news article surprised us  and to be honest it was completely unexpected.

we did not imagine that it was this bad for teodoro. we feel the pain that gilbert teodoro feels. we fear for his presidential campaign.

teodoro went to marilao, bulacan to visit but the residents wondered who he was, they even said they were happy to see noynoy aquino pay them a visit! the residents mistook teodoro to be noynoy aquino.

here is where the pain we feel for teodoro comes from:

  • we know that he suffers badly in the polls, the latest showing him gaining a minuscule 0.2% in the latest quarterly SWS survey. that puts him at the very bottom among  the major candidates and in the company of  the laggards perlas, madrigal and de los reyes.
  • his party’s announcement as the standard bearer of the ruling/admin party was greeted not with glee, not with excitement but  ho-hum not only among the public but also among his party-mates. his party-mates did not exactly jump with joy when he was chosen. rather than the good things, the negatives of doubt and insecurity came up instead.
  • ondoy came and as NDCC head he was at the front and center of the country. the NDCC is the government agency tasked to respond to the likes of ondoy it stands for National Disaster Coordinating Committee  and Teodoro being the chair means he will get a lot of media. he did.

but  that did not help him.

given the above, you would expect that teodoro’s 0.2% will get a surge. we don’t know yet if it did in numerical terms but given what happened in bulacan, we might be hoping against hope.

there is a lot of discontent on the kind of reaction the national government, the NDCC and by extension arroyo on the aftermath of the ondoy disaster. no help came and if they did, it was too little, too late. on the other hand, the private sector, groups, companies and individuals came out in force many times over and in many cases ahead of the government, in many places the only people who came to help the victims.

what shoves teodoro deeper into name recognition hell, and this adds salt to an open wound is that he was doing something good in bulacan -he visited. not being recognized for it says (a) he really suffers from a very low recognition, reflective of the 0.2% in the polls and (b) people seem to automatically equate good deeds with aquino and not with any other presidentiable. it’s bad enough you are not know by the voters, it’s really dismal when the good you do is attributed to your main rival.

ouch! double ouch!

That’s Gibo! ‘Ondoy’ a bane and a boon 
 By Jocelyn Uy, Leila Salaverria
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 05:40:00 10/06/2009 

MARILAO, BULACAN —Defense Secretary Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro Jr. has the looks and credentials to run for president. Unfortunately, some flood-stricken residents here mistook him for the other presidential aspirant, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, who happens to be his cousin.

While the residents of Barangay Lambakin were excited to see a government official finally checking up on them after more than a week since Tropical Storm “Ondoy” (international codename: Ketsana) submerged their homes in mud and floodwaters, they also wondered and whispered among themselves if it was Noynoy visiting them.

Overhearing the murmured exchange, someone from Teodoro’s party said in Filipino: “That’s Gibo,” referring to the defense chief’s nickname.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20091006-228604/Thats-Gibo-Ondoy-a-bane-and-a-boon

the euphoria noynoy enjoys that puno says is a bad thing – belat!

September 24, 2009 6 comments

we are amused to no end on secretary ronaldo puno’s recent pronouncements on noynoy aquino’s campaign. 

A word on the euphoria … those things are not enough to win an election. You will have to deal with the issues that the people are concerned about. Those have to be dealt with over a long period,” Puno told the Manila Overseas Press Club (MOPC) on Tuesday night at Hotel Intercon in Makati City.

lets get real here — “euphoria”  shown by the public on day 1 that a candidate announces his candidacy is EVERY CANDIDATE’S DREAM to have. it is in fact an excellent, even brilliant way to start a campaign. it is what campaign managers and marketing people want and plan for. 

having euphoria early on sets the candidate at a very high staging point for the next things to follow. equally important, it places the candidate above the competition and in fact sets the bar or price of entry for all other opponents at a very steep place. a campaign that starts at that very high level means it has a strong foundation for future moves and makes it difficult for competition. 

similar to a political campaign, any marketing and advertising practitioner plans for generating excitement and interest at the very start of a product launch.  in marketing how you start the campaign matters a lot. a good start launch helps ensure a successful end year. it is at that point where you get momentum, not attaining one usually spells disaster, getting it too late will not matter but getting it at the very start is brilliant.

compare aquino’s start to that of LAKAS-KAMPI’S gilbert  teodoro. he did not even get anywhere close to anything euphoric, much less close to what aquino enjoyed. teodoro got headline and top page  news coverage at most for 2 days after his formal declaration. aquino on the other hand has been getting headline news for many days after his declaration of candidacy and in fact got headline coverage many days before the actual announcement.

not only did aquino get media coverage because of the euphoria he enjoyed at the start, it also got his followers and the general public excited and rooting for aquino. almost overnight,  individuals and groups formed to do their share of supporting the candidacy of aquino all of it without being asked by aquino or anyone else. all were voluntary.  the latter part is the most important part – grass roots people involvement.  no other candidate enjoys that benefit and strength now.  

aquino got a lot of other positives from his euphoric start. teodoro on the other hand not only did not get any euphoria, he even got problems instead, one of which is arroyo cabinet members and officials defecting to the  aquino camp. on top of the problem of defection, DOUBTS and INSECURITIES started to crop up among the public and even among their own party members on the viability of teodoro’s candidacy. many more negatives came out of the non-euphoric start of tedoro’s campaign, an exact opposite of what aquino enjoyed.

the aim of political campaign managers and marketing managers is not only to attain euphoria at the start but also to sustain it till the end. keeping that feeling as high possible till election time helps ensure winning the election at the end of the campaign period.

puno is not being honest as  the master strategist who put 3 presidents into office when he belittled euphoria at start of the noynoy’s political campaign. he knows its a great thing but is not honest enough to admit it only because he belongs to the opposite camp. the only saving grace of puno is the use of the word “euphoria” to describe what has occurred after aquino declared his candidacy. it is the strongest word to use in describing it. at least he is honest in that he recognizes the extent of the positive reaction. it is a superlative.  

there is a very simple way to explain why euphoria is great to get at the start – aquino started with many good things, happy news,  all positives with enthusiastic supporters because of the euphoria he obtained. teodoro on the other hand because of the lack of euphoria at the start now need to put off fires that erupted everywhere – the defections, the doubts, insecurity and negativity that sprung up when he announced his candidacy.

we understand though why puno needed to be dishonest by belittling euphoria – not only did teodoro, his partner in this election not get anything near it, he himself did not get it. the most immediate aftermath of  his declaration as vice presidential candidate was – nothing. well not really nothing,  his party-mates very publicly said the party should consider another party-mate for the vp position – governor vilma santos. nobody celebrated, not at all euphoric in him getting the vp slot, it was instead greeted by an idea to replace him.

his views on why euphoria is a bad thing, one word comes to mind – BELAT!

 

ronaldo puno mr. euphoria

Mr. Euphoria

Puno: Aquino euphoria not enough to win 
 By Alcuin Papa, Jhunnex Napallacan
Philippine Daily Inquirer, Inquirer Visayas
First Posted 03:43:00 09/24/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Take it from the man touted to be the architect of the electoral victory of three Philippine presidents since 1992.

Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno said euphoria may not be enough to win elections, referring to the chances of Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the 2010 elections.

Puno said that from experience, euphoria from the commemoration last month of the 26th death anniversary of Noynoy’s father Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. and the passing away of former President Corazon “Cory” Aquino would not last until Election Day.

Read more…

arroyo cabinet secretary bello says he supports aquino – snow ball effect started?

September 23, 2009 2 comments

 another defection from the aroyo administration, this time cabinet secretary bello. yesterday when secretary romulo made known his suppot for noynoy aquino, we wondered if that was the start of a snow ball effect where other arroyo officials will

WHOS NEXT? Days after Foreign Affairs Sec. Alberto Romulo (seen here with Mrs. Arroyo in a summit in Egypt) threw his support to Sen. Noynoy Aquino presidential bid, Cabinet Sec. Sylvestro Bello III (inset) admits Wednesday his sentiments also go with Noynoy. PCPO, DOJAfter Foreign Affairs Secretary Alberto Romulo, another member of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Cabinet indicated Wednesday his sentiments are for Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy Aquino III.

WHO'S NEXT? Days after Foreign Affairs Sec. Alberto Romulo (seen here with Mrs. Arroyo in a summit in Egypt) threw his support to Sen. Noynoy Aquino presidential bid, Cabinet Sec. Sylvestro Bello III (inset) admits Wednesday his sentiments also go with Noynoy. PCPO, DOJAfter Foreign Affairs Secretary Alberto Romulo, another member of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Cabinet indicated Wednesday his sentiments are for Liberal Party standard bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy" Aquino III.

announce their support for noynoy aquino.

we wonder once again if that was the start of a long list of arroyo officials supporting aquino.

 

Arroyo man Bello admits pro-Noynoy Aquino sentiments

After Foreign Affairs Secretary Alberto Romulo, another member of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s Cabinet indicated Wednesday his sentiments are for Liberal Party

 standard bearer Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III.

But Cabinet Secretary Silvestre Bello III stopped short of saying he would support Aquino’s presidential bid this early, saying he would quit his post should he finally decide to do so.

“Eh, siyempre medyo ang sentiment ko para kay Noynoy. Pero kung mag-iisip ako na susuporta sa kanya, bago pa man ako gagalaw, magbibitiw muna ako (My sentiments are for Noynoy. But if I would think of supporting his presidential bid I would resign from my post first),” Bello said in an interview on dzXL radio.

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sec. alberto romulo supports aquino – a major blow to LAKAS-KAMPI and teodoro

September 22, 2009 1 comment

Romulo favors Aquino
But Malacañang tells execs: ‘Toe the line’

By Christian V. Esguerra, Leila Salaverria, Inquirer Southern Luzon
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:48:00 09/22/2009

MANILA, Philippines—Malacañang Monday served notice to its troops to “toe the line” after Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo—one of its most senior Cabinet officials—broadly indicated his support for Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, the Liberal Party’s standard-bearer in the 2010 presidential election.

News that Romulo was favoring the senator came the same day that another administration official—Commissioner Jaime Jacob of the Presidential Anti-Graft Commission (PAGC)—announced he was resigning his post in order to support the presidential bid of the late former President Corazon Aquino’s only son.

Jacob’s resignation was the latest sign of cracks in the facade of administration unity and came just two months before the official start of the campaign for the May 2010 national elections.

Romulo was in London accompanying no less than President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo herself in her three-nation foreign trip when he indicated in an interview with an ABS-CBN correspondent where his heart lay.

“In 2007, I voted for Noynoy Aquino [for senator], so my ties with the Aquino family have been deep and lasting,” Romulo said in the interview. “I’ve always been with Tita Cory and voted for the Aquinos.”

Asked if he would support Noynoy, Romulo answered: “I have voted for the Aquinos all the time.”

read in full here: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090922-226363/Romulo-favors-Aquino

 

romulo declaring he is supporting noynoy aquino and not gilbert teodoro, LAKAS-KAMPI and admin presidential candidate is a major blow and embarrassment to the administration and teodoro’s candidacy.

it is not as much as number of votes as romulo is not a politician nor do we think he has a political base but it is a huge psychological and morale disaster for the administration party. romulo is a senior official of the arroyo administration.

PDI SEPT 22 wawam _ romulowhat makes this more telling is that he is not the only one who is moving away from the administration and ruling party.

vice president noli de castro was the first major political figure who did that. de castro though he ran as an independent during the election is still part of the arroyo administration.

he was courted ardently by arroyo herself to be the standard bearer of the party, so much as saying he is the anointed one, but de castro declined to be part of it.

add to that the fact that de castro has been consistently one of the leaders in the presidentiable polls making him the most viable candidate among admin/ruling party affiliated presidentiables. that underscores the magnitude of de castro’s refusal to join the ruling party.

another arroyo administration official, Commissioner Jaime Jacob of the Presidential Anti-Graft Commission (PAGC) has announced his resignation from his post to campaign for aquino.

for these defections, if you can call it that, to the aquino camp is happening too soon. the campaign period has not even began yet with many blanks still open among the political parties. these things usually occur towards the end of the campaign period.

for it to occur this early is definitely bad news for the ruling/admin party. it is starting too early and can create a snow-ball effect. more admin officials and ruling party members might follow romulo and jacob’s lead and that will mean the admin/ruling party’s campaign for the presidency might collapse even before it starts or right after it starts.

philippine politicians are known to shift their alliances to the team that has the most likelihood of winning regardless of stand or principles. the shift might be seen by them as a major crack and a significant weakness giving the ruling/admin party as the losing political party.

if this happens, the ruling and admin party is again another inch moved towards the margins of philippine political life.

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