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why will gilbert teodoro lose this election?

May 11, 2010 8 comments

a lot has been written in this blog on why gilbert teodoro will lose this election. across the time frame of the campaign period factors that will make teodoro lose the election has been identified in this blog.

this will provide the key points:

  • arroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro we think is the biggest factor for teodoro’s loss. everyone knew and that included teodoro himself , his political party lakas-kampi-cmd and arroyo herself knew that. we saw arroyo’s kiss of death in action during the last senatorial election where most of the admin senatorial candidates lost and almost all the opposition candidates won. the sentiments and scenario that was operating then is still present in this election and in fact even more intense than before – based on polls, the people failed arroyo on her performance as president,  trust rating have been negative and people see arroyo as most corrupt next to ferdinand marcos. romulo neri called arroyo “evil”, the people agrees with that sentiment. they all knew arroyo is a problem so much so that arroyo has distanced herself from teodoro, hardly saying anything about teodoro, did not campaign for him and did not even have a picture taken with teodoro.
  • teodoro is an unknown. before his proclamation as standard bearer of the admin party, people hardly knew teodoro. he was a congressman in his hometown for some time but he had no national constituency to speak of. all he had was two years of chief of the defense portfolio which was not at all enough for him to gain national prominence or even some  name identification.
  • although he had spent a lot of money on his ads, at some point second highest spender, that did not help him as we think his ads were ill-conceived, was fatally flawed on the ad strategy and the execution faulty.  teodoro spent most of his advertising money on his “resume tv ads” which was too basic and had no power to persuade.
  • we think the teodoro campaign knew teodoro had no national standing that is why they launched those ads. that was fine but they stayed on it too long. all the ads did was create brand awareness while they should have moved to a more persuasive and meaty ads.
  • teodoro’s “ego trip” tv ads, telling the voters he has “galing at talino” were not at all persuasive to the voters. people wanted to know what he will do for the country, not his resume, harvard education and being pilot included. these things simply did not ring a bell among the voters.
  • the executions of his ads were also flawed as they appeared to be too elitist while  most of the voters come from the poor. would the poor who comprise most of the voters be able to relate to teodoro for being a pilot? will they be able to appreciate he knows how to fly a plane? we did not think so.  the teodoro campaign was thinking and doing these ads for themselves, not for the voters. we suspect the ads were feel good ads but feel good for themselves and not the voters or target audience.
  • the teodoro campaign and that includes teodoro himself were perpetually in denial in this campaign from start to finish. we think they knew things were not going right in their campaign even from the very start but they did not seem to want to accept the problems and even much less did not want to do something about it. all they did was they kept telling themselves everything was doing well, nothing was wrong and nothing can go wrong even though they knew what was actually happening was the exact opposite. sadly, we think this is the exact same attitude and problem of the arroyo and her administration for themselves and specially in the way they governed the country.
  • teodoro even failed in showing his “galing at talino” during the onody and pepeng floods and the maguindanao massacre. the ondoy and pepeng floods was a dream come true for any presidential candidate. teodoro was handed in a large silver platter the opportunity to perform and demonstrate to the people he had what it takes to be president. he among everyone else had the best opportunity to make something out of it – he was the admin, a cabinet secretary and the DND to which he was chief was actually in charge of disaster coordination’s. he failed in hos duties, his mandate and as a candidate. had he performed well during the floods, he would have won the election by a landslide.
  • teodoro’s campaign never really took off.  the campaign had failings from the very beginning and almost in every step of the way as the it progressed. we will remember teodoro’s  campaign on the basis of the failings of the campaign that occurred from time to time rather than success points.   
  • lakas-kampi-cmd, teodoro’s political party is a failed political party.  we do not think lakas-kampi-cmd was any help to teodoro. we are not even sure if the party wanted to help him at all.  we think the rumor that the party lost interest on teodoro was not a rumor but the truth.

looking at teodoro’s results and what he had done during the campaign and if you were an alien looking in, you would have not guessed that teodoro belonged to the dominant political party in the country.

teodoro lost this election from day 1.  

~~~~ mindscape landmark ~~~~
carlo arvisu

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The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll closed – #1-villanueva; #2-gordon; #3-teodoro; #4-aquino

May 8, 2010 483 comments

several tens of thousands voted in our poll here at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog  Poll which was first opened on december 2, 2009. this is probably one of the most successful internet poll on the 2010 presidentiables given the sheer number of voters.

this was the 2nd presidentiables poll we opened here with the first one including the undeclared but claimed candidates. this poll only includes the official COMELEC list of presidentiables.

we like to thank everyone for viting in the polls and posting your comments her.

on may 10, we will open a new poll – an exit poll. you will be asked to vote the presidentiable you actually voted in the election.

know your candidate better and find out specifics on all the other candidates,  compare them,  click here :

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May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating

May 7, 2010 2 comments

the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change.  their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.

the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.

Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.

Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)

Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.

As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.

(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)

The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.

They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)

source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

Villarroyo – the most powerful word of the 2010 election

May 4, 2010 1 comment

the 2010 election will be remembered for many things some good and some bad. there will also be losers and a winner. but one word will stand out, it can be the word for the 2010 election – Villarroyo.

it is a very creative term, two names moulded into one, giving it a precise meaning to a complex concept – that villar is arroyo’s secret candidate in the 2010 election.

it did not matter that the declared candidate of arroyo is gilbert teodoro, the idea was putting a seed of doubt in the minds of voters about who the candidate is of the evil one.

arroyo has been seen as the exclusive owner of  the kiss of death for those seeking public office. she showed she had that during the last senatorial elections where almost all of  the administration candidates lost in that election while  almost all of the opposition senatorial candidates won senatorial seats.

the administration during that time was boasting of its good economic record. the malacanang press bureau was releasing a lot of economic data boasting it was under the arroyo administration that had good economic results.

the numbers were  good but real life was not for most of the people – jobs were scarce, unemployment high and hunger were also high. since that was just a senatorial election, the people took its anger towards the administration candidates by voting those who were going against them who were mostly opposition senatorial candidates. that election was a protest vote against arroyo, a referndum on her perfromance as president.

arroyo’s kiss of death is as potent then as it is now with gilbert teodoro, the newest recipient of arroyo’s kis of death. his ratings continue to suffer in the polls with just 7% in the latest reading, getting only as high 9% on previous tallies. his ratings hardly moved from the time he entered the competition.

teodoro was largely an unknown candidate to voters having no previous elected national position and just two years of a cabinet post in the arroyo administration, the defense portfolio which by its very nature is a low key cabinet position.

he came into the election as an unknown and unmarked. arroyo’s kiss of death was the only mark that was on him and that did not help at all. the teodoro campaign was obsessed with playing it down, the two of them never photographed together and the traditional raising of hands to proclaim a candidacy not done when teodoro was proclaimed standard bearer of arroyo’s political party, lakas-kampi-cmd.

the villarroyo name may not have have the same kind of power asarroyo’s kiss of death on teodoro had, but we think it certainly played a crucial role in this election. we think it had the power of concretizing the idea of the negative in just ten letters.

developments in the campaign also helped give the term villarroyo some potent life. at the time this was coined and released into the public’s mind, the headlines talked about the disintegration of the administration party, lakas-kampi-cmd, with many of its members and even its key officers abandoning the party to join the LP and the NP.

there were also reports that mike arroyo, gloria’s beloved partner was in talks with manny villar and had dropped support on teodoro. teodoro’s own party helped to put very dry wood into the smouldering  fire with it’s members, some key officers and even those working for the teodoro and manzano campaigns complaining about lack of funds to no support coming from lakas-kampi-cmd to their campaign efforts.

they did not have to tell us that as we witnessed that by ourselves. during that time, we hardly saw any tv ads for teodoro and manzano. (in fact todate, manzano has had no tv ad for himself or with him with his presidential candidate).

taking all of it together, it forms into a composite of many different things that actually fit and made sense. we saw that villar was continuing to put on air heavy advertising at that time and that true to critics, he really never went against arroyo as much for example mar roxas or even noynoy aquino.

our simple minds, picking up simple things did form a great, sensible and powerful word – villarroyo.

if you think about it – the whole story seems like a complex plot from a political drama movie. it looked like a script was written for it and got unfolded right in front of our eyes.

or is it destiny speaking here? there is no way any human could have conspired to make the last two letters of villar as the first two letters of arroyo’s last name.

villarroyo –  a perfect fit of two names, the most powerful word in the 2010 election. it will be the one word that was able to bring down billions of pesos in advertising and marketing expense and a presidential candidate who almost made it.

~~mindscape landmark~~
carlo arvisu

corruption is the number 1 issue in the 2010 philippine election

May 3, 2010 3 comments

read the platforms of government of all presidentiables here

May 2, 2010 3 comments

presidentiables stand on how they will generate jobs

May 2, 2010 3 comments

 

source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/talkofthetown/view/20100501-267548/How-theyll-generate-jobs

How they’ll generate jobs 
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:13:00 05/01/2010

FILIPINOS CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOR JOBS OVERSEAS. THERE ARE SIMPLY not enough jobs available in the country. While remittances help keep the economy afloat, the social costs of a parent or spouse working abroad are huge. A bright spot is the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which has absorbed tens of thousands of college graduates. But the BPO sector benefits mostly the middle class. It is closed to the poor who have less education. A big number of Filipinos are unemployed or underemployed or have simply given up hope of finding a job. How the next administration will address the unemployment problem can be gleaned from the answers of the presidential candidates to the following questions:

How will you generate jobs? What policies and programs will you pursue to create jobs?
What kind of jobs will be generated under your administration? What sectors, industries?
Will you encourage the export of labor?

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal Party

THE NO. 1 ITEM IN OUR PLATform is job generation. The theory is we could increase the quality and remuneration of jobs available here. It might not match those in other countries but with the added benefit of having your family and you are a first-class citizen here. We might have enough people who will decide to stay.

We want something like (US President Franklin) Roosevelt’s job creation program—building schools or public works projects with a big labor bias. If the project will not be delayed and it’s OK cost-wise, then we will choose a labor-intensive program.

We have so many areas that have a big potential like the BPO sector, IT and agriculture, particularly post-harvest production. Agriculture can be subdivided [into subsectors]. There are also many others that have not been exploited like fruits, [which can be processed into] fruit juices.

My understanding of the law is that the state cannot make it a policy to export our workers. Nevertheless, I want to make sure that the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration, and our embassies and consulates really help all our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

A very significant portion of the population are OFWs outside the country. So the main point is that if they leave, it’s because they want to and not because they have to.
Interview by Philip Tubeza

 

JC de los Reyes
Ang Kapatiran

WORK IS A WAY OF FULFILLing part of our human potential given to us by God. If the dignity of work is to be protected, then the basic rights of workers, owners and managers must be respected—the right to productive work, to decent and fair wages, to organize and join unions, to economic initiative, and to ownership and private property.

Ang Kapatiran shall ensure rapid and sustained economic growth for sustainable poverty reduction and better quality of life for all by:

Reviewing and rationalizing all outstanding public debts and limiting future government borrowings within the growth level of our exports or GDP;

Raising private and public savings rates to increase total investment rate;

Enhancing investments in human resource development, especially by strengthening education in the sciences, mathematics, engineering and English;

Streamlining government bureaucracy to reduce personnel expenditures;

Drastically improving tax administration and revenue collection;

Abolishing laws, rules and regulations that give government revenue personnel the discretion to allow or disallow certain deductions or exemptions;

Prioritizing agricultural development to attain a high degree of self-sufficiency by encouraging productivity through the introduction of new technologies and support-infrastructure;

Creating microfinance and other credit facilities for small enterprises by harnessing OFW remittances and more exports for economic development;

Encouraging livelihood through the formation of cooperatives and other small enterprises and development programs to alleviate poverty in the grassroots level;

Implementing the agrarian reform program;

Promoting industrialization by encouraging the expansion of useful industries, including telecommunications and information technology;

Attaining a stable balance of trade by encouraging the development of new export products and improving existing ones.

In summary, Ang Kapatiran shall work for a “job-filled society”—industrialization for the economic well-being of all, agricultural development, microfinance and other credit facilities for small- and medium-enterprises, and positive investment climate to reverse the outflow of OFWs.
Interview by Jerome Aning

 

Joseph Estrada
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino

WE WILL GET RID OF THE secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the New People’s Army (NPA). So we will start developing the countryside. Right now, the government cannot develop the countryside.

In the early ’50s and ’60s, informal settlers or squatters were concentrated in Metro Manila. Today, in all urban areas, there are squatters because the countryside remains undeveloped. There’s the NPA. In Mindanao, there’s the MILF.

We will concentrate on services and agriculture to generate jobs. When there’s peace and order, there’ll no longer be [adverse] travel advisories from other countries. We will improve our tourism.

We cannot stop the export of labor soon. Maybe within two to three years. It will take time to generate jobs. Like for example, during my time, if you will remember we planned to change the economic provisions of the Constitution so that we can generate jobs.

We will allow foreigners to own land here except agricultural land. If we allow foreigners to own land they can compete with our local realtors and once (they own land) they will develop that. Once they develop that, it will generate jobs.
Interview by Norman Bordadora

 

Richard Gordon
Bagumbayan

WE HAVE NATURAL TRAITS and skills for tourism. We can be the beach capital of the world. We have enough airports already. Our problem is we have to do some policy on certain airports to be declared “open skies.” Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam have open skies.

The educational system is producing many hotel and restaurant management graduates. That is the future. Because of the tourism law which I authored, we can now invite more investors to build establishments without overtaxing the environment.

We can spread out hotels. Tourists will not want to go to Boracay every year. They want to go to new destinations. Our graduates can be tuned into tourism and entrepreneurship. But our education must also leapfrog to information technology. So you will want more software development.

We may have to export labor for a while, but we will encourage enhancing labor skills. I am not going to send a maid. I am going to send a governess. There is a value added.

We also have to make sure that we harness savings instead of encouraging a consumption-based economy. We will have a provident fund in which we are able to raise money from the savings of our overseas workers. Professional people should run the fund as they do it in Singapore.
Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.

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