Mar Roxas’ presidential campaign is unique – it is the only campaign that has single-mindedly stayed on one platform and advertising campaign since it launched in end July, 2015 with the formal endorsement of President Noynoy Aquino at Club Filipino. Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” since that formal endorsement. In the words of Aquino, Mar Roxas will “continue Daang Matuwid”.
With that announcement, Roxas got a huge bump in the polls, surging from a single digit rating to a double digit rating. That was in September 2015 where his rating at Pulse Asia stood at 18% making him a legitimate contender among the presidentiables. The surge placed Roxas at 3rd and very close to Jejomar Binay who was at 2nd, That was the first time that Roxas placed strongly in the polls.
But that surge in September 2015 was the last good news Roxas has gotten in the polls. For seven (7) months since September 2015 that Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” , Roxas has not gotten any good news in the polls.
After seven (7) months, Roxas is still 4th out of 5 candidates and his ratings has remained flat, just moving within the range of 17% to 20%, close to being within the margin of error. Being within the margin of error means the differences in his ratings are not significant, his numbers have not really changed.
This means “Daang Matuwid” is associated with failure, the most that it has given Roxas in the last seven (7) months of being single-minded on it is 4th place that is not moving at all. fourth place in an election will not win it.
In marketing and advertising an ad campaign or a brand positioning that is not delivering the results, like a rise in market share or an uptick in volume sales, is immediately dropped and changed into something else.
This action of dropping and changing ad campaigns and brand positioning is even more dire in a political campaign. A political campaign is short, lasting just months and has a definite deadline – election day. Not getting it right by election time means losing the election.
Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” for sure is a WAWAM!
Read also :
why Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing http://wp.me/pnw03-1Z5
Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” ad campaign is failing him – the numbers show it http://wp.me/pnw03-1YE
there is no other way to describe what has been happening to presidentiable Jejomar Binay and his presidential campaign – his supporters are abandoning him in what can only be called a mass exodus. this is the PDI headline from the most recent survey from Pulse Asia:
this is a survey from Pulse Asia on the performance and trust rating of Binay as vice-president. this survey asks the performance and trust ratings of the top officials in the government from the president to the speaker of the house and senate to the chief justice. this is different from the election surveys that Pulse Asia (and SWS) have been conducting.
this survey asks respondents of their sentiments in the way Binay is performing his job as vice-president. people will be responding to that question based on what they think a vice president should be doing. Binay’s run for the president is not mentioned in the question that is being asked here.
the results were devastating for Binay – he took a free fall on trust and performance to his lowest level in the process losing a whopping-15% points from 58% to 43% of his approval rating on his performance of his job.
equally devastating is his trust ratings also nose dived by losing-18% points from 57% to 39%.
source : Philippine Daily Inquirer http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/727269/pulse-asia-binay-ratings-dive
those are very dramatic losses that will make any candidate or even a pollster shudder in fear. this means that on this aspect of Binay’s political life, people are very disappointed with him and that he is being abandoned by his supporters. the vice-president position is a very easy position to fulfill – because of the nature of the job, there are very little things to do unlike say the president or even the cabinet secretaries. because of the ease, the vice president in most surveys typically gets a much higher performance and trust rating than the president.
for Jejomar Binay to get a lower rating than Aquino in this survey says a lot about the huge disappointment that people have on Binay.
in a newspaper report, Binay questions the credibility of this survey by saying he has already resigned his cabinet posts when the survey was conducted, wondering what it was the respondents were rating him for his performance and trust.
Binay is mistaken and raises an irrelevant issue – the survey had asked the respondents on his performance and trust as vice president of the country, not as any of the cabinet post he has occupied and resigned from. respondents are measuring him on the basis of what the respondents think is the job and function of the vice president. as vice-president of the country, the respondents have seen his performance and trust dramatically drop.
in recent surveys released previous to this, Binay’s ratings have shown his declining ratings continue to drop. not only that, his ranking has changed from a high 2nd to either being tied by Roxas at 2nd or falling to 3rd/4th position. the ratings of mar roxas, the LP and admin standard bearer has seen his ratings surge up both in terms of numbers and position where he used to be a far 4th to now a tie at 2nd (posted here in this blog).
the questions asked of the respondents here were point blank – who would they elect as president if the elections were held at the time of the survey and who they think is a good leader to replace Aquino as president.
Binay getting declining numbers on these different surveys says a large part of Binay’s supporters are abandoning Binay in a mass exodus. they are abandoning Binay based on different dimensions of the candidate as Binay – on trust and performance as VP, as a good leader to replace Aquino and as presidential candidate. Binay is being looked at from different dimensions by the voters and in all aspects they no longer see Binay as fit.
on their own these are already dramatic and impressive declines. put that further into context, Binay used to be the top on all the surveys just a few months ago. he was all alone on top with no one even close to challenge him. Binay’s standing started to erode when alleged charges of corruption and plunder were revealed at the senate hearings. at the height of the weekly hearings, when it became vey apparent that Binay was mired in multiple corruption charges, Grace Poe a neophyte senator surged up in the surveys .
the voters saw Binay as the evil one based on the alleged charges while they saw Poe as good in an election that quickly got into a question of an election of Good vs Evil.
we have said this before. Binay should recognize what is happening to his candidacy, these survey numbers are real and representing real sentiments. the sentiments are astoundingly consistent from many dimensions. for him to change his fortunes, he needs to wear big boy pants and face the charges that have been made against him. until he does that, the declining trend will not change and continue until the actual 2016 election.
does binay have big boy pants?
Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:
- Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
- Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
- Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
- the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
- of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
- in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined
just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.
we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.
the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.
Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.
aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.
the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president is the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.
the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.
that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.
as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.
Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.
with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.
Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.
it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.
when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points. a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.
for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed. for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.
based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.
are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?
The survey was conducted Septemebr 2 to 5, 2105 and has the following ratings for the three presidentiables :
- Grace Poe : 26%
- Jemomar Binay : 24% (difference vs Poe – 2% points)
- Mar Roxas : 20% (dofference vs Binay – 4% points)
With a margin of error at +/- 3%, Poe and Binay are on a statistical tie while Roxas vs Binay with a difference of 4% points is statistically significant but it being just shy by 1% point, that is considered a statistical tie.
unlike the other SWS survey which was an options survey (respondents were asked to name 3 candidates who can replace Aquino), this is a real elections survey where respondents were asked to identify only 1 candidate who they might vote as president if the elections were held during the time of the survey.
this survey gave a triple whammy to all three presdientiables Poe, Binay and Roxas.
1st whammy – this is the biggest whammy and it is for the benefit of Mar Roxas. mar roxas before this survey was a far third to Poe and Binay. roxas jumping to tie the front runners is a big jump for roxas. this mimics the same kind of giant improvement that Roxas got in the other SWS survey where he got a +18% point improvement catapulting him to 2nd position (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-1W0).
this shows Roxas is a legitimate contender in the election and is on an impressive increasing trend. the increasing trend will serve Roxas well as we move to the actual election in 2016, this means Roxas is building his support base at the same time the support base of Poe and Binay are not moving if not weakening.
2nd whammy – this one hurts Garce Poe. Poe in previous surveys showed she was way ahead of the others and was a clear leader. this survey with two of her rivals catching up with her shows she is not invincible. it says she can be beaten.
3rd whammy – this hurts Jejomar Binay. Binay used to be the runaway winner in the polls but his ratings have been suffering and was on a massive declining trend since the corruption and plunder charges have been exposed in the senate. Binay just getting a tie with the two others means Binay has not arrested his declining trend and continue to suffer in the polls.
unless Binay changes things, like address the corruption and plunder charges against him, the declining trend will continue and his numbers will shrink significantly by election time. it is possible that the shrinkage will be big enough that the other leaders will overtake him.
Roxas’ ratings have gone up driven by the endorsement of President Aquino for his presidentiable run and Roxas’ declaring that he will continue Aquino’s “Daang Matuwid”. Aquino endorsed Roxas’ presidential run in an event held at Club Filipino on August 30, 2015. Roxas also ran ads almost the next day where he said he will continue Aquino’s “Dang Matuwid”.
Roxas has gained the momentum from this survey and will allow him to enlarge his support base.
Poe will need to work harder to get back her stellar number one position. Let us see if her numbers will improve on the next survey behind her announcement that she will run for president in an event that happened after this survey was conducted.
Question On Methodology & Design For SWS :
we noticed that the two presidentiables surveys, the options survey and this election survey were run on the same time period. did that mean the questions for the these two separate surveys were in one questionnaire and both were asked of the respondents in the same sitting?
if so, was there no order bias in their answers?
i would think there would be order bias and one or both of the answers of the respondents will be affected by the other. it would be difficult to accept the survey results if there was order bias.
Aquino satisfaction best since Q1 2014
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III hit its highest point in one-and-a-half years this quarter, fueled by significant improvements in most geographical areas except Mindanao and across socioeconomic classes except ABC, according to results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.
latest poll shows president aquino’s net satisfaction rating is on the rise, highest since Q1 2014 according to SWS as published at Business World. this confirms once again that president aquino is the country’s most popular president.
this rise in satisfaction rating comes at a great time for Mar Roxas who recently had announced he is running for president under the LP. this is a benefit to Roxas as Aquino has endorsed Roxas’ run for the presidency.
Roxas has declared he is ready for the presidency and accepts the challenge of continuing Aquino’s “daang matuwid” governance and the platform by which aquino won the election by a landslide.
the “daang matuwid” and aquino’s rising popularity is in contrast to the continuing unanswered graft and corruption charges against Roxas’ main rival for the presidency VP Jejomar Binay.
Roxas is a far third in the latest polls although he has recovered significantly in the latest poll from the previous. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas may give Roxas the push to challenge the leader Poe and the previous leader Binay. Poe now leads the polls, followed by Binay and Roxas at third.
the latest presdientiables surveys will be released soon, lets see how this all plays out for Roxas.