Aquino satisfaction best since Q1 2014
PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III hit its highest point in one-and-a-half years this quarter, fueled by significant improvements in most geographical areas except Mindanao and across socioeconomic classes except ABC, according to results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.
latest poll shows president aquino’s net satisfaction rating is on the rise, highest since Q1 2014 according to SWS as published at Business World. this confirms once again that president aquino is the country’s most popular president.
this rise in satisfaction rating comes at a great time for Mar Roxas who recently had announced he is running for president under the LP. this is a benefit to Roxas as Aquino has endorsed Roxas’ run for the presidency.
Roxas has declared he is ready for the presidency and accepts the challenge of continuing Aquino’s “daang matuwid” governance and the platform by which aquino won the election by a landslide.
the “daang matuwid” and aquino’s rising popularity is in contrast to the continuing unanswered graft and corruption charges against Roxas’ main rival for the presidency VP Jejomar Binay.
Roxas is a far third in the latest polls although he has recovered significantly in the latest poll from the previous. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas may give Roxas the push to challenge the leader Poe and the previous leader Binay. Poe now leads the polls, followed by Binay and Roxas at third.
the latest presdientiables surveys will be released soon, lets see how this all plays out for Roxas.
we this election is for aquino to lose villar to win and estrada to upset his opponents as the dark horse.
we think given the trends from the polls and the actions aquino and his opponents have executed in the past few days, we think aquino is not set to not just win, but a possibility of a landslide win is in the horizon.
these are the key points why we think a landslide win is now possible for aquino:
- aquino has led in the polls from the very beginning
- not once was aquino threatened by any other candidate in the polls
- his closest opponent, manny villar took drastic declines too close to the election. arresting the decline, recovery from it and reversing the trend is impossible to achieve given the the time available
- manny villar, aquino’s strongest opponent is now suffering with a declining trend
- erap estrada gaining in the polls came too late, he no longer has time to build on his momentum. he will fall short of his target.
- none of aquino’s competitors did anything dramatic to propel themselves to the top or bring down aquino
- aquino has sustained his stature, no huge scandal has erupted in the last few days
- aquino’s rating of 42% is formidable given that his closest rival, villar and estrada are at 20% to 19%, one half of aquino’s rating. that margin is insurmountable given just a few days from survey time to election time. this is not a close election anymore, it is a rout. one more way of appreciating the margin – even if you combine the ratings of his closest rivals, 39%, aquino’s 42% will still make him win this election.
the bottom line is that given the above, aquino with just a few days to go in this election has gained a very strong upward momentum while his closest rivals are on a decline trend (villar) and on a slight upward trend (estrada) but with no time to reach aquino.
an increasing trend only becomes viable if the leaps are very significant like the way binay is aggressively gaining on roxas. estrada’s upward trend is not as impressive as that of binay.
with just a few hours to go until the poll opens, the aquino campaign has much more to celebrate.
this is philippine politics tradition – waiting for the Iglesia Ni Cristo’s endorsement of who they will be asking their flock to vote in the coming election, for this one, noynoy aquino and mar roxas got INC’s endorsement.
the timing is also perfect – just a few days before election day. this is an excellent boost to name recall and will re-energize the aquino and roxas supporters and campaigners. it’s excellent timing to get an army of supporters going for the kill with just a few days to go.
is there any value to this endorsement?
iglesia has a reported command vote of 3 million to 5 million. we think that is an exaggeration. we also think command votes from religious groups do not really materialize.
the real value of this endorsement is bragging rights and excellent media mileage, not actual huge numbers of votes. this kind of news is excellent news for the media to write about and for the people to talk about. it is also an excellent topic for the aquino campaign to banner.
we will most likely be reading about this in the next day or two and will get a lot of media interviews for aquino and roxas. this is best used for press interviews but might not be a good idea to talk about it extensively during public meetings as it has the potential to turn off none iglesia members.
certainly this has the potential to tip the scale in favor of aquino from a bragging rights point of view with pastor quiloboy endorsing gilbert teodoro the other day. iglesia is a much larger religious group than the pastor’s.
the key question now will be how will the other campaigns handle the situation? this leaves manny villar in the cold and puts teodoro back down to earth with his lowly 7% rating in the polls.
there is a clear momentum for the aquino campaign now.
the 2010 election is probably one of the nastiest philippine presidential election in its history. not that philippine elections are known for intelligent debates on national issues, but noynoy aquino in particular have received the worst kinds of negative attacks.
there is a very long laundry list of negative and even personal attacks on noynoy aquino that started almost on the day after he announced his candidacy. almost all the attacks were personal – lack of achievements, lack of experience, being a bachelor, being autistic, his cigarette smoking, his hair or lack of it, his use of his parents credentials and the most recent, the double fake psyche reports.
but none of it, not a single negative attack got to stick to aquino. that makes aquino a teflon presidentiable.
aquino’s standing in the polls since the very start has not changed – he has been the front runner. while his current rating may not be as high as what it was at the start, he continue to dominate the other presidentiables. shrinkage from his going in rating is normal and expected. what is unusual and admirable is that he has maintained his front runner status from day one till now even though black propaganda against aquino was always there in various and new forms.
how was aquino able to survive such atttacks?
this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog….
in marketing, this is under the heading “source of business”. it is a mostly forgotten question by many brand managers but it is a very critical question.
in preparing a marketing plan specially for new brands to be launched in the market, that should be one of the first questions that need to be asked – where will this brand get market share from?
markets are never 100% virgin markets. new products are launched into the market and they will seek to replace a product or service that is already existing. when you launch a brand, you need to ask yourself the question – what existing brand or service will my new brand replace.
it’s the same thing in elections. if your candidate is not in the top and you want to win the election, in drafting your winning strategy for the laggard, the question you need to ask is this – who among the presidentiables will you target for supporters?
based on the latest Pulse Asia poll (read: March 2010 Pulse Asia Poll: villar rating drops, aquino lead widens, no change among laggards – point of no return?), villar’s declining ratings seem to indicate his supporters are prime target for other presidentiables. villar’s voter base seem to be the more fluid among the top 3 contenders.
aquino’s base has not moved much at the current level, estrada has been relatively secure and in fact in other surveys seem to be moving upwards but villar has been on a constant move. it used to be moving constantly upward until the last survey dates when his ratings went down instead. for it to move downwards at this late stage in the campaign is a very serious matter.
getting close to the ending of the campaign period might not give him enough time to recover or re-convince those he already lost. the only thing going for him is that the number of “undecided” increased. but even the undecided are also prime target for the other presidentiables.
if the laggards are developing their win strategies now, the wisest thing to do is to target villar supporters. it is i think a newly opened path to victory.
~~~~~a mindscape landmark~~~~~
this is the kris aquino in tears video at The Buzz which happened over the weekend. it can break your heart or make you laugh. you can believe it or not.
the question is this – is kris aquino a liability or an asset to the noynoy aquino election campaign?
this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog.
vote in the poll: