Duterte-Cayetano TV Ad – powerful and meaningful messages

the omnibus Duterte-Cayetano TV ad positions them as the tandem for change. the set up is dirt is being thrown at the Duterte and Cayetano poster by those against change – “lumalabas na and mga galit at ayaw sa pagbabago” . scenes showing ordinary people putting up the Duterte-Cayetano posters and ad materials in their homes follow the intro with the copy talking about the changes that the tandem will give the country : “kapayapaan sa paligid”,” kaayusan sa ating gobyerno” at “kaginhawahan sa ating buhay”. the ad ends with their tagline – “Para Sa Tunay Na Pagbabago”.

it’s simple to understand and a powerful ad. “change” for the better is what most of us want and specially as it relates to peace and order, order in governance  and progress. the things that the Duterte and Cayetano tandem is promising are probably among the top things that people want to have or even to change in the current administration.

the tagline “Para Sa Tunay Na Pagbabago” may not be the best one for the ad but emphasizing “change” in it will make people notice. the ad does not really explain or make a point on where the “tunay” or real change is or what it means making  it disconnected with the rest of the ad.

the ad will appeal to 83%  of the voters. 83% is equivalent to all the respondents who did not select Roxas in the latest SWS survey.

this ad is a stark contrast to the whimsical and wild ads for Duterte which are in animation and full of over-promises pushing the ads into being incredible and unbelievable.

the ad will get the Duterte-Cayetano tandem noticed.

2016 Vice-Presidentiables Online Poll Now Open

Antonio Trillanes

Leni Robredo

Chiz Escudero

Gringo Honasan

Bongbong Marcos

Alan Peter Cayetano

poll opened October 19, 2015

Binayfication strategy is not working – change or explode in flames on the way down

Binayfication is the strategy employed by VP Binay and the rest of the family on the current allegations and charges hounding them individually and collectively as a family. Binayfication is about ignoring and not answering the allegations and charges of corruption being revealed and multiplying at the committee hearings led by Senators Cayetano, Pimentel and Trillanes. It is about ignoring and not answering them and instead introducing new issues and points that are totally unrelated to the charges and allegations with the intent of diverting the attention of the people.

these survey results from both Pulse Asia and SWS says it all, quite emphatically how Binayfication has failed as a strategy:

sources : http://www.sws.org.ph/ and http://pulseasia.ph/

all the survey results, Pulse Asia’s trust and performance ratings and SWS satisfaction ratings of jojo binay as a vice president has plummeted in September 2014 from previous periods of June and March 2014. the changes from September to June are all dramatic and statistically significant – the drops are -15% points. comparing the September numbers to one more quarter before that, from March 2014, the drops are even more devastating, they increase from a middle double-digit number to now -20% in most cases.

not only that, the drops as the Pulse Asia survey shows are across the board, across all regions and across all socio-eco classes. in other words, the vote of disapproval is from everyone in all places in the country. that is massive decline in any survey, political or even in marketing.

that tells us whatever it is the Binay camp are doing, they are not working and is not helping the cause of VP Binay for his 2016 presidential aspirations. in marketing, actions and strategies are measured and judged by numbers, by results. the actual business numbers and results equivocally tell us whether they are working or not. numbers that go up simply say they are working and numbers that are down says they are not working. whatever the numbers are, you base your next step on those. good numbers says continue whatever you are doing while bad numbers says stop whatever you are doing and change course.

for the past weeks, all that the Binay camp have been doing is Binayfication. the numbers are out and what they are saying is that Binayfication is not working . the smart strategist will make a move to change strategies. but that does not seem to be what they will do. so far, all they have been doing is the same thing. doing the same thing will give the same results. if these initial results is the beginning of a trend, Binay is set to lose the 2016 election.

—

credit goes to sargo for the term “Binayfication”. it is being used with permission. 

 

The 4 PDAF Scam “Napoles Lists” compared here

the “Honor Roll” or “Dishonor Roll” of the philippine senate?

(pics source : http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/05/27/1327759/18-senators-final-list)

some points:

• the most recent janet napoles “long list” for the PDAF scam has 20 names, closer to the PDI List which had 25 names
• napoles added 8 additional names, the “long lisy” now having 20 names compared to the short list that she gave SOJ de lima which had 12 names on it
• the following 9 names (in green text) appear in all 4 lists : ap cayetano, bong revilla, honasan, jinggoy estrada, enrile, koko pimentel and barbers.
• the ping lacson list has 10 names with 9 appearing 4 times and 1 appearing 3 times

 

MANILA, Philippines – Twenty Senators, 100 congressmen, and all of their agents in the pork barrel transactions were named in the affidavit of Janet Lim Napoles submitted to the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Monday.

“To the extent of my knowledge, the following are the Senators, Congressmen and their agents and the officials or staff of implementing agencies of government that had connections with me and received part of the pork barrel,” Napoles said in her affidavit.

read in full here :
20 senators, 100 congressmen named on Napoles’ long list
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/605682/20-senators-100-congressmen-named-in-napoles-long-list

compare the 3 PDAF Scam senators list : Napoles, PDI and Lacson Lists

 

• the “janet napoles list” comes from the document SOJ leila de lima submitted to the senate blue ribbon committee.
• “the PDI (philippine daily inquirer) list” is a list PDI made based on the benhur luy’s computer hard disk. PDI made a copy of the contents of the hard disk.
• the “pin lacson list” according to lacson came from jimmy napoles, the husband of janet.
• nine (9) names appear in all 3 lists : cayetano, revilla, honasan, estrada, enrile, pimentel, legarda, villar and barbers
• three (3) names appear on 2 lists out of 3 : escudero, ejercito and sotto
• nine (9) names belong to 4 families : loi, JV, jinggoy – estrada family; bong and ramon sr – revilla family; cynthia and manny – villar family; koko and aquilino – pimentel family
• comparing the ping lacson and janet napoles lists, there are 2 names missing from the lacson list – JV ejercito and tito sotto.  lacson reportedly got his list from the husband of janet napoles, presumably given by janet napoles.

the Benhur Luy List on the PDAF Scam

 

in the Benhur Luy List :

1. Manny Villar
2. Cynthia Villar
3. Ralph Recto
4. Koko Pimentel
5. Aquilino Pimentel
6. Tito Sotto
7. Miriam Defensor Santiago
8. Bongbong Marcos
9. Jun Magsaysay
10. Loren Legarda
11. Lito Lapid
12. Bong Revilla
13. Ramon Revilla Sr
14. Robert Jaworski
15. Greg Honasan
16. Loi Estrada
17. JV Ejercito
18. Frank Drilon
19. Alan Peter Cayetano
20. Rodolfo Biazon
21. Jinggoy Estrada
22. Robert Barbers
23. Tessie Aquino-Oreta
24. Juan Ponce Enrile
25. Edgardo Angara

the families in the list :

Estrada Family – Loi, JV, Jinggoy
Revilla Family – Ramon Sr., Bong Jr.
Pimentel Family – Aquilino, Koko
Villar Family – Manny, Cynthia

 

 

 

 

 

 

25 senators on Luy list

Estrada, Revilla, Enrile biggest pork beneficiaries

By Nancy C. Carvajal
Philippine Daily Inquirer

 

Third of a series

 

MANILA, Philippines—The names of 25 past and present senators are in the digital files of whistle-blower Benhur Luy detailing transactions Janet Lim-Napoles made from 2002 to 2012—a period during which she channeled congressional Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) allocations to ghost projects and kickbacks.

 

The entries were made upon the instruction of Napoles to Luy, who was then her finance officer. The files were copied by the Inquirer from a hard disk drive (HDD) that Luy’s parents handed over during a visit to its newsroom last year to ask for help in exposing the alleged plunder of state funds by Napoles and her highly placed clients.

 

Luy said his parents did not know the explosive contents of the disk drive.

 

The files showed that the funds were from projects for members of the Commission on Appointments, the minority bloc in the House of Representatives of 2003, the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC), savings from the Department of Agriculture, Department of Agrarian Reforms, allocation for the Senate President Pro Tempore, majority floor leader, and for budget insertions.

 

The records showed that 15 incumbent senators had transactions with Napoles: Juan Ponce Enrile, Ramon Revilla Jr., Jinggoy Estrada, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Vicente “Tito” Sotto, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Gringo Honasan, Loren Legarda, Aquilino Pimentel III, Manuel “Lito” Lapid, Cynthia Villar, JV Ejercito, Franklin Drilon, Ralph Recto and Alan Peter Cayetano.

 

Also in the records were the names of former Senators Edgardo Angara, Manny Villar, Tessie Oreta, Nene Pimentel, Rodolfo Biazon, Robert Jaworski, Robert Barbers, Loi Estrada, Ramon Magsaysay and Ramon Revilla Sr.

 

Luy’s records also showed that Enrile, Revilla and Estrada were Napoles’ longtime clients.

 

Enrile is on record as having used P683 million from 2004 to 2012. But this is still an incomplete figure. The Inquirer still has to complete checking Luy’s records on Enrile’s total PDAF disbursements to Napoles NGOs.

 

Revilla used a total of P1.2 billion, again a figure that is still incomplete as the Inquirer continues to check the Luy files.

 

Estrada tops them all at P1.6 billion, which is still an incomplete figure as the Inquirer continues its examination of the records.

 

Apart from being regular clients of Napoles since 2004, the three senators were also the biggest contributors to the pork barrel funded projects who repeatedly funneled billions of funds to her bogus nongovernment organizations (NGOs). They received at least 50 percent in kickbacks of each project, the files showed.

 

First senator-client

 

Lapid was the first senator to become a client of Napoles. He was then governor of Pampanga. At that time, he received a total of P1,132,500 total cash advance—in US dollars and pesos—on Dec. 20, 2002, March 23, 2003, and May 7, 2003.

 

The first transaction with Lapid, according to the records, was P500,000 on Dec. 20, 2005, with the remarks “given at the Manila Hotel.”

 

In another deal, described as a Commission on Appointment project under the Department of Agriculture, Region 3, but realigned to Guagua, Pampanga, Lapid allocated P5 million and received a “rebate” of P2 million representing 40 percent of the project, the records showed.

 

Cayetano returned money

 

Luy’s records showed that Cayetano allocated P3 million of his PDAF while he was the Taguig-Pateros representative in 2003 intended for communication supply with the DOTC as implementing agency.

 

The records also showed a cash advance of P639,625 was received by “VLL,” but other details in the records showed that P500,000 of the amount was returned by Cayetano to JLN, Napoles’ company. Luy in earlier interviews with the Inquirer said Cayetano declined to enter into transactions with Napoles.

 

Santiago in a letter dated Sept. 5, 2005, and addressed to a Dennis Araullo, regional executive director of the Department of Agriculture, allocated P5 million to Cabadbaran, Agusan del Norte, for financial assistance to coffee growers under ASA-no. 101-2005-315 dated June 14, 2005.

 

Santiago’s rebate

 

On the same date, under Voucher No. 09-4780,  Zenaida Ducut also received “cash bonus from Sen. Miriam Defensor P10 m project DA savings .05 the amount of P100 thousand.”

 

On the Sept. 30, 2005, entry of Luy’s financial records, under the heading JLN cash/ check disbursement, showed that Ducut, the current Energy Regulatory Commission chair, received the rebate in behalf of Santiago.

 

“Full payment received charged from (Santiago) DA savings the amount of P2.5 million under voucher 09-4779,” the records indicated.

 

Marcos, a first-term senator allocated P360 million of his PDAF in 2011 and 2012 covered by 10 special allocation release orders (Saros) through the government-owned National Livelihood Development Corp. (NLDC) as the implementing agency and designated local government units (LGUSs) as conduits to the Napoles organizations.

 

Sotto, senator from 1992 to 2004 and who returned for another term in 2010, also funneled from 2010 to 2012 P228 million of his pork barrel funds to Napoles NGOs through the NLDC and selected LGUs. Sotto also repeatedly assigned the same towns and cities as recipients of his PDAF from 2010 to 2012 with Napoles NGOs as beneficiaries under 12 Saros.

 

Legarda, a senator from 1998 to 2004 and again in 2007, also allocated P200 million of her PDAF in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to NLDC, LGU and Napoles’s NGOs as beneficiaries. Legarda’s allocations were covered by eight Saros.

 

Honasan channeled P107 million of his PDAF to Napoles groups twice, through the NLDC on Sept, 18, 2009 and to the DA on April 1, 2008.

 

‘For Gringo Honasan’

 

On Oct. 22, 2009, another Luy document stated that P1.750 million was transferred to an account of JLN Corp. at the Metrobank Ortigas branch “for Gringo Honasan.”

 

Sen. Cynthia Villar supposedly received P500,000 as kickback allocated for members of the House minority bloc in 2003 with the DOTC as the implementing agency and Jo-Chris Trading as the link to Napoles.

 

JV Ejercito allocated P5 million through the Department of Interior and Local government when he was still San Juan representative in 2011, the records showed.

 

Also on the file was a letter supposedly from Recto dated Aug. 30, 2010, for Agrarian Reform Secretary Virgilio de los Reyes in which he requested  P10 million for agrarian reform projects nationwide. No other record on Recto appears in Luy’s files.

 

In one of Luy’s records under the CA-DA 2005 allocations, Drilon was listed to have been allocated P5 million as head of the Commission on Appointments.

 

One of the letters in Luy’s files showed that Drilon wrote to budget Secretary Florencio Abad on Nov. 22, 2011, and requested for P100-million financial assistance, to be coursed through the DAR secretary. But according to Luy, speaking through his lawyer, Raji Mendoza, “the letter was drafted but no transactions took place, as far as his recollection” was concerned.

 

An April 3, 2007, entry in Luy’s records showed that Angara allocated P50 million of his PDAF in 2007 to 10 municipalities in Mindanao as beneficiaries.

 

Senator Manny Villar in 2003 with his allocation from the Congressional Initiatives Funds and the DOTC as the implementing agency procured equipment supplied by Jo-Chris Trading, owned by Napoles.

 

Pimentel’s cash advances

 

In 2003 and 2004, then Sen. Nene Pimentel allegedly funneled his PDAF to Napoles organizations and received cash advances of totaling P7.6 million in cash and checks all received by a Mon Arcenas between Sept. 9, 2003 and Nov. 6, 2003. The entry also showed that a delivery of a check “was at the Senate.”

 

Oreta, in 2003, allocated P45 million to various soft projects and received P10,890.00 as “cash advance received by Caloy and Johnny,” but Luy’s record showed that she returned the money. The entry also stated that a balance of P1 million was to be returned by Brian Yamsuan, Oreta’s chief of staff, and the project would be completed by another contractor.

 

Oreta also was included in the list of lawmakers in the DOTC project allocation of P4.5 million.

 

Biazon, now Muntinlupa Representative, allocated P92 million of his PDAF in 2004 and 2008 using various agents under implementing agencies Technology Resource Center and the DA based on cash releases records of Luy.

 

Former Sen. Loi Ejercito was also among the lawmakers who allocated the most number of pork barrel projects to Napoles’ NGOs between 2004 and 2008 using P285 million of taxpayers’ money.

 

Jaworksi in 2003 and 2004 allocated P29.l25 million of his PDAF to Napoles NGOs through LGUs in Mindanao and also to the DOTC.

 

Magsaysay allocated P4 million to two provinces in 2004-2005 through the Napoles organizations.

 

Revilla Sr. allocated P169.07 million of his PDAF in projects “nationwide” in 2003 and 2004. His cash advances were in manager’s check and cash received by a Rowena Mendiola. Other cash advances were given by Napoles herself, the records showed.

 

Barbers, who died in 2005, allocated P89 million of his PDAF in 2003 and 2004 in a “nationwide” project. His cash advances were received by a “Canda” and an “Atty. Laloy.”—With Inquirer Research

 

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/602031/25-senators-on-luy-list#ixzz31e6WnUif
Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

Pulse Asia March 2014 presidentiables survey : don’t panic, it’s only 2014

one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate the respondents will vote if the election was held today.

that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.

and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.

people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period.  more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.

these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.

for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)

we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.

grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.

vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.

mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.

chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.

we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.

how should the candidates proceed from this?

• take the results with a mountain of salt
• need to monitor developments
• candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
• common denominators should be pulled out
• from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
• conduct research based on these results

we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.

Alan Peter Cayetano looking into 2016 presidential run, forms team – a tactical error

today at rappler.com headline article was the supposed presidential run of senator peter alan cayetano whose preparations has started, beginning with forming a team, assigning a foreign strategist and and monitoring media.

this is early preparation considering that the next presidential election is still in 2016, a good 2 years from now.

preparing early for the election, even 2 years ahead of time we think is a good thing. the presidential election is the most major political campaign anyone can run in any country.

hilary  clinton resigned her post as secretary of state last year which we think is a move in preparation for her own presidential run also in 2016. clinton quitting her high profile position in government was the right thing to do – she quit on a high note, she succeeded very well in that job and not being there now will mean she will not make mistakes and hurt her run when it gets close to the elections. she will also distance herself and keep her slate clean from any political issues that might crop up close to the election and those that might crop up during the balance of the obama administration that she might or might not support, specially those she might take up issue against during the election.

no such kind of preparation for cayetano but forming his team now to look into ir or to pave the way for a presidential is similar in intent to that of clinton’s.

we have no issues with doing early preparation, like forming a team,  for cayetano’s presidential ambitions, we have issues with the move being announced or made known to the public.

the public includes his current and future political opponents, specially those who also have plans of running for president. these are his competitors, telegraphing his intentions to them now means his opponents can monitor him, make plans against him or worse make him a target of a political demolition job.

in marketing and advertising, you never, ever tell your competitors what your plans are specially for the future. marketing and advertising companies keep these plans and moves a total secret from competitors. things like codes, secret meetings and confidentiality clauses are made to make sure no information gets out to competition.

the worry is competition might execute preemptive moves. marketing and advertising moves that will preempt your moves and thus render your moves useless, prevent you from doing yours or weaken your efforts.

in marketing and advertising, preemptive moves against a competitor could be things like run a price-off promotion to get to lead the consumers with your products to prevent them from trying your new product; increase media weights of ads to drown out your launch efforts and even launch a competitive product similar to yours.

these preemptive moves have been done before in marketing and advertising and they can be done in similar ways in a presidential run.

the most obvious way to preempt cayetano’s presidential plans is to a demolition job on cayetano. his opponents may make every single mistake, even small ones a national issue. when this is done, cayetano will need to spend a lot of time answering them rather than building a case for his presidency.

we think this announcement is a tactical error on the part of cayetano.

there are many things  that can be done now by cayetano that his team can do. there can be obvious ones and those kept secret and out of view from voters and his opponents. what he needs to do is develop a strategy and plan for this effort with very clear goals and assessment points.

announcing to the public his plans to run is not one of them.

read rappler.com article here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/51787-cayetano-eyes-2016-presidency

 

 

both SWS and Pulse Asia surveys hit 100% match with official senatoriables 2013 election Comelec results

there is no other way to describe it -both SWS and Pulse Asis senatoriables polls during the 2013 mid term election were impressive, both hit 100% in the list of senatoriables they had on their surveys compared to the top 12 on the final & official results from the Comelec.

SWS conducted their last survey for the senatoriables election May 2 to 3 and got these results compared to the actual and final Comelec results:

• 12 out of 12 in the poll came out as top 12 in the Comelec tally, 100% success rate
• 3 senatoriables, Escudero, K Pimentel and Honasan came in at exactly the ranking on the survey and the Comelec tally, a 25% match.
• 5 senatoriables, Legarda, AP Cayetano, N Binay, B Aquino and Trillanes came within 1 to 2 places off in the survey versus the final Comelec tally, a 42% match.
• adding the two numbers, 8 out of 12 or 67% came within a match to 2 places on the survey versus the Comelec tally
• only 4, Poe, S Angara, Ejercito and C Villar was off by more than 2 places from the final tally

Pulse Asia conducted its last survey for the senatoriables election on may 10 to 11. because of the nature of reporting and computation done by Pulse Asia on their poll results which were all expressed on a range, 11 out of 12 senatoriables matched the placements of the senatoriables to that of the Comelec tally. only 1 senatoriable, C. Villar was off.

the range means the Pulse Asia poll results were  showing a lot of ties or statistically insignificant differences from senatoriable to another.

what does this all mean?

it means SWS and Pulse Asia election polls are highly reliable and an excellent gauge of people’s sentiments on elections. there can be no better result than a 100% match rate and specially with a high number of matches coming in less than 2 places off.

that means the vetting of respondents done by the pollsters are excellent and are precisely representative of the voting population. it also means the random sampling done by these two polling agencies are to the point. most importantly, the sample size of 1,200 to 1,500 are good enough to be able to capture sentiments of voters on a national scale.

the above points, specially on the sample size have been the most questioned by non-believers of surveys, SWS and Pulse Asia in particular. not that the haters are able to present statistical arguments against the pollsters, but these have been incessantly raised by them. we have always said, those who raise them are those who are not winning in the polls thus having a skewed agenda. the excellent match up results proves the counter argument correct.

last point on what this means – it will be wise for election candidates in the future to subscribe and pay attention to the SWS and Pulse Asia election polls.

twitter followers of 2013 Senatoriables – how many are real, how many are fake?

we came across an interesting website on twitter the other day (courtesy of @Simply_Clinton) – twitter audit (http://www.twitteraudit.com/). the website analyses a twitter account’s followers and determines what portion are “real” followers and what is “fake”.

we assume “real” followers are other twitter accounts with individual humans behind them that follow a twitter account. they are acquired over time who follows an account based on a match on interest, point of view, tweets that are simply interesting or where to get information from.

“fake” followers are bots (internet robots) who are added to the list of followers just to add numbers to the followers list. the thinking is that, the more followers have or the greater the number of followers, the more popular the twitter user/account is. we have all heard of a twitter following contest of some sort between the likes of justin bieber and lady gaga for example. that is the whole idea behind it.

we are guessing someone having a bigger number of followers will feel important or encourage others to follow the person.

apparently, there are internet services from whom you can buy twitter followers. social media practitioners apparently do this all the time for their clients. when you hire a social media practitioner, adding or padding your follower list is one of the things they do for you.

with this in mind, we ran some 2013 senatoriables twitter accounts to find out what is the ratio of “real” vs “fake” twitter followers they have on their accounts.

we do not know if these politicians actually “bought” followers and we are not even giving an opinion on it. maybe they are all “real” followers and that the twitteraudit.com is wrong or giving us bad data or they have a large number of twitter followers whose accounts have become dormant for a long time. these things happen. and we really do not know how accurate or reliable twitteraudit.com is.

take these with a grain  salt, decide on your own what they mean.

for good measure, we also put here our own (@wawam) twitter audit and other politicians who are active on twitter. looking at the other audit results will give you a better gauge of what the data all mean for the rest.

   

head to head comparison SWS vs Pulse Asia February 2013 Senatoriables Polls

the good news is that the country has two polling companies doing a great job of capturing the sentiments of voters – SWS (social weather station) and Pulse Asia. it also adds to it that they tend to conduct the polls at about the same time. with the respondent criteria about the same and survey timing very close to each other, comparing the two results is a very good thing to do.

surveys give the people a view, scientific and objective, of what others think about candidates and issues. it can help others shape or confirm their own views. in this complex world of ours, more information is always better.

for candidates and handlers of the candidates, it can be more than informational, it can be very instructive. they can use the results to re-shape, change directions or strengthen their winning strategies or fix and avoid their losing strategies.

but that is very much dependent on the skill sets of the candidates and their handlers on analyzing and understanding surveys. that is the first step.

the second and the more important step is formulating new strategies and plans based on the survey analysis and conclusions.

we are providing here a first step analysis of the  survey results. there are a few more steps on analysis that needs to be done and more steps at formulating action steps in strategy change and plans formulation. but those are for another day.

in the meantime….

data sources: Pulse Asia & SWS

• Pulse Asia : http://pulseasia.ph/
• SWS : http://www.sws.org.ph/

also read (click) :

• dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll
• dramatic drops for UNA & dramatic increases for Team PNoy in february SWS sentatoriables survey

dramatic gains for aquino & poe, dramatic drops for trillanes, zubiri & enrile – pulse asia february 2013 senatoriables poll

not much has changed among the top 3 ranking senatoriables, legarda, escudero and cayetano alan peter from previous poll.

for this february 2013 pulse asia 2013 senatoriables survey, 15 senatoriables are competing for the top 12 position. in order of highest to lowest ranks as follows:

1. legarda (Team PNoy)
2. escudero (Team PNoy)
3. cayetano alan peter (Team PNoy)
4. villar, cynthia (Team PNoy) 
5. ejercito (UNA)
6. aquino, bam (Team PNoy)
7. binay (UNA)
8. poe (Team PNoy)
9. pimentel (Team PNoy)
10. honasan (UNA)
11. enrile, jack (UNA)
12. trillanes (Team PNoy)
13. angara (Team PNoy)
14. zubiri (UNA)
15. gordon (UNA)

6 senatoriables  are battling for the last 3 positions, the 10th to the 12th, senatoriables honasan, enrile, trillanes, angara, zubiri and gordon who are all tied.

at the bottom among the candidates of the two major coalition parties, UNA and Team PNoy, are mitos magsaysay and tingting cojuangco  both from UNA. their rankings have not changed from previous.

among the 15 candidates fighting for the top 12 spots, 9 are from Team PNoy and 6 are from UNA.

among the top 9, only 2 are from UNA (binay and ejercito) while the rest are from Team PNoy. among the 6 who are battling for the last 3 spots, 4 are from UNA and only 2 are from Team PNoy.

with those rankings, if elections were held today, Team PNoy has a chance of gaining 9 out of the 12 seats at best or 7 out of 12 at worst, a clear majority of the seats.

Team PNoy has generally done very well in this survey.

source : https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3b9qPFV1cRDNGJWVXpKN0ZhZU0/edit

dramatic increases in rank and rating were gained by aquino and poe, both by +9 places who are now tied at 4th place from previous survey at 13th place; and +11.8 percentage points and +11.2 percentage points, respectively.

3 senatoriables suffered dramatic losses in rank and rating, 1 from Team PNoy, trillanes and 2 from UNA, enrile and zubiri.  all three lost 5 places in the rankings although all three still came within the top 12.