the omnibus Duterte-Cayetano TV ad positions them as the tandem for change. the set up is dirt is being thrown at the Duterte and Cayetano poster by those against change – “lumalabas na and mga galit at ayaw sa pagbabago” . scenes showing ordinary people putting up the Duterte-Cayetano posters and ad materials in their homes follow the intro with the copy talking about the changes that the tandem will give the country : “kapayapaan sa paligid”,” kaayusan sa ating gobyerno” at “kaginhawahan sa ating buhay”. the ad ends with their tagline – “Para Sa Tunay Na Pagbabago”.
it’s simple to understand and a powerful ad. “change” for the better is what most of us want and specially as it relates to peace and order, order in governance and progress. the things that the Duterte and Cayetano tandem is promising are probably among the top things that people want to have or even to change in the current administration.
the tagline “Para Sa Tunay Na Pagbabago” may not be the best one for the ad but emphasizing “change” in it will make people notice. the ad does not really explain or make a point on where the “tunay” or real change is or what it means making it disconnected with the rest of the ad.
the ad will appeal to 83% of the voters. 83% is equivalent to all the respondents who did not select Roxas in the latest SWS survey.
this ad is a stark contrast to the whimsical and wild ads for Duterte which are in animation and full of over-promises pushing the ads into being incredible and unbelievable.
the ad will get the Duterte-Cayetano tandem noticed.
Binayfication is the strategy employed by VP Binay and the rest of the family on the current allegations and charges hounding them individually and collectively as a family. Binayfication is about ignoring and not answering the allegations and charges of corruption being revealed and multiplying at the committee hearings led by Senators Cayetano, Pimentel and Trillanes. It is about ignoring and not answering them and instead introducing new issues and points that are totally unrelated to the charges and allegations with the intent of diverting the attention of the people.
these survey results from both Pulse Asia and SWS says it all, quite emphatically how Binayfication has failed as a strategy:
all the survey results, Pulse Asia’s trust and performance ratings and SWS satisfaction ratings of jojo binay as a vice president has plummeted in September 2014 from previous periods of June and March 2014. the changes from September to June are all dramatic and statistically significant – the drops are -15% points. comparing the September numbers to one more quarter before that, from March 2014, the drops are even more devastating, they increase from a middle double-digit number to now -20% in most cases.
not only that, the drops as the Pulse Asia survey shows are across the board, across all regions and across all socio-eco classes. in other words, the vote of disapproval is from everyone in all places in the country. that is massive decline in any survey, political or even in marketing.
that tells us whatever it is the Binay camp are doing, they are not working and is not helping the cause of VP Binay for his 2016 presidential aspirations. in marketing, actions and strategies are measured and judged by numbers, by results. the actual business numbers and results equivocally tell us whether they are working or not. numbers that go up simply say they are working and numbers that are down says they are not working. whatever the numbers are, you base your next step on those. good numbers says continue whatever you are doing while bad numbers says stop whatever you are doing and change course.
for the past weeks, all that the Binay camp have been doing is Binayfication. the numbers are out and what they are saying is that Binayfication is not working . the smart strategist will make a move to change strategies. but that does not seem to be what they will do. so far, all they have been doing is the same thing. doing the same thing will give the same results. if these initial results is the beginning of a trend, Binay is set to lose the 2016 election.
credit goes to sargo for the term “Binayfication”. it is being used with permission.
- the most recent janet napoles “long list” for the PDAF scam has 20 names, closer to the PDI List which had 25 names
- napoles added 8 additional names, the “long lisy” now having 20 names compared to the short list that she gave SOJ de lima which had 12 names on it
- the following 9 names (in green text) appear in all 4 lists : ap cayetano, bong revilla, honasan, jinggoy estrada, enrile, koko pimentel and barbers.
- the ping lacson list has 10 names with 9 appearing 4 times and 1 appearing 3 times
MANILA, Philippines – Twenty Senators, 100 congressmen, and all of their agents in the pork barrel transactions were named in the affidavit of Janet Lim Napoles submitted to the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee Monday.
“To the extent of my knowledge, the following are the Senators, Congressmen and their agents and the officials or staff of implementing agencies of government that had connections with me and received part of the pork barrel,” Napoles said in her affidavit.
read in full here :
20 senators, 100 congressmen named on Napoles’ long list
- the “janet napoles list” comes from the document SOJ leila de lima submitted to the senate blue ribbon committee.
- “the PDI (philippine daily inquirer) list” is a list PDI made based on the benhur luy’s computer hard disk. PDI made a copy of the contents of the hard disk.
- the “pin lacson list” according to lacson came from jimmy napoles, the husband of janet.
- nine (9) names appear in all 3 lists : cayetano, revilla, honasan, estrada, enrile, pimentel, legarda, villar and barbers
- three (3) names appear on 2 lists out of 3 : escudero, ejercito and sotto
- nine (9) names belong to 4 families : loi, JV, jinggoy – estrada family; bong and ramon sr – revilla family; cynthia and manny – villar family; koko and aquilino – pimentel family
- comparing the ping lacson and janet napoles lists, there are 2 names missing from the lacson list – JV ejercito and tito sotto. lacson reportedly got his list from the husband of janet napoles, presumably given by janet napoles.
in the Benhur Luy List :
- Manny Villar
- Cynthia Villar
- Ralph Recto
- Koko Pimentel
- Aquilino Pimentel
- Tito Sotto
- Miriam Defensor Santiago
- Bongbong Marcos
- Jun Magsaysay
- Loren Legarda
- Lito Lapid
- Bong Revilla
- Ramon Revilla Sr
- Robert Jaworski
- Greg Honasan
- Loi Estrada
- JV Ejercito
- Frank Drilon
- Alan Peter Cayetano
- Rodolfo Biazon
- Jinggoy Estrada
- Robert Barbers
- Tessie Aquino-Oreta
- Juan Ponce Enrile
- Edgardo Angara
the families in the list :
Estrada Family – Loi, JV, Jinggoy
Revilla Family – Ramon Sr., Bong Jr.
Pimentel Family – Aquilino, Koko
Villar Family – Manny, Cynthia
25 senators on Luy list
Estrada, Revilla, Enrile biggest pork beneficiaries
Third of a series
MANILA, Philippines—The names of 25 past and present senators are in the digital files of whistle-blower Benhur Luy detailing transactions Janet Lim-Napoles made from 2002 to 2012—a period during which she channeled congressional Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF) allocations to ghost projects and kickbacks.
The entries were made upon the instruction of Napoles to Luy, who was then her finance officer. The files were copied by the Inquirer from a hard disk drive (HDD) that Luy’s parents handed over during a visit to its newsroom last year to ask for help in exposing the alleged plunder of state funds by Napoles and her highly placed clients.
Luy said his parents did not know the explosive contents of the disk drive.
The files showed that the funds were from projects for members of the Commission on Appointments, the minority bloc in the House of Representatives of 2003, the Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC), savings from the Department of Agriculture, Department of Agrarian Reforms, allocation for the Senate President Pro Tempore, majority floor leader, and for budget insertions.
The records showed that 15 incumbent senators had transactions with Napoles: Juan Ponce Enrile, Ramon Revilla Jr., Jinggoy Estrada, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Vicente “Tito” Sotto, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Gringo Honasan, Loren Legarda, Aquilino Pimentel III, Manuel “Lito” Lapid, Cynthia Villar, JV Ejercito, Franklin Drilon, Ralph Recto and Alan Peter Cayetano.
Also in the records were the names of former Senators Edgardo Angara, Manny Villar, Tessie Oreta, Nene Pimentel, Rodolfo Biazon, Robert Jaworski, Robert Barbers, Loi Estrada, Ramon Magsaysay and Ramon Revilla Sr.
Luy’s records also showed that Enrile, Revilla and Estrada were Napoles’ longtime clients.
Enrile is on record as having used P683 million from 2004 to 2012. But this is still an incomplete figure. The Inquirer still has to complete checking Luy’s records on Enrile’s total PDAF disbursements to Napoles NGOs.
Revilla used a total of P1.2 billion, again a figure that is still incomplete as the Inquirer continues to check the Luy files.
Estrada tops them all at P1.6 billion, which is still an incomplete figure as the Inquirer continues its examination of the records.
Apart from being regular clients of Napoles since 2004, the three senators were also the biggest contributors to the pork barrel funded projects who repeatedly funneled billions of funds to her bogus nongovernment organizations (NGOs). They received at least 50 percent in kickbacks of each project, the files showed.
Lapid was the first senator to become a client of Napoles. He was then governor of Pampanga. At that time, he received a total of P1,132,500 total cash advance—in US dollars and pesos—on Dec. 20, 2002, March 23, 2003, and May 7, 2003.
The first transaction with Lapid, according to the records, was P500,000 on Dec. 20, 2005, with the remarks “given at the Manila Hotel.”
In another deal, described as a Commission on Appointment project under the Department of Agriculture, Region 3, but realigned to Guagua, Pampanga, Lapid allocated P5 million and received a “rebate” of P2 million representing 40 percent of the project, the records showed.
Cayetano returned money
Luy’s records showed that Cayetano allocated P3 million of his PDAF while he was the Taguig-Pateros representative in 2003 intended for communication supply with the DOTC as implementing agency.
The records also showed a cash advance of P639,625 was received by “VLL,” but other details in the records showed that P500,000 of the amount was returned by Cayetano to JLN, Napoles’ company. Luy in earlier interviews with the Inquirer said Cayetano declined to enter into transactions with Napoles.
Santiago in a letter dated Sept. 5, 2005, and addressed to a Dennis Araullo, regional executive director of the Department of Agriculture, allocated P5 million to Cabadbaran, Agusan del Norte, for financial assistance to coffee growers under ASA-no. 101-2005-315 dated June 14, 2005.
On the same date, under Voucher No. 09-4780, Zenaida Ducut also received “cash bonus from Sen. Miriam Defensor P10 m project DA savings .05 the amount of P100 thousand.”
On the Sept. 30, 2005, entry of Luy’s financial records, under the heading JLN cash/ check disbursement, showed that Ducut, the current Energy Regulatory Commission chair, received the rebate in behalf of Santiago.
“Full payment received charged from (Santiago) DA savings the amount of P2.5 million under voucher 09-4779,” the records indicated.
Marcos, a first-term senator allocated P360 million of his PDAF in 2011 and 2012 covered by 10 special allocation release orders (Saros) through the government-owned National Livelihood Development Corp. (NLDC) as the implementing agency and designated local government units (LGUSs) as conduits to the Napoles organizations.
Sotto, senator from 1992 to 2004 and who returned for another term in 2010, also funneled from 2010 to 2012 P228 million of his pork barrel funds to Napoles NGOs through the NLDC and selected LGUs. Sotto also repeatedly assigned the same towns and cities as recipients of his PDAF from 2010 to 2012 with Napoles NGOs as beneficiaries under 12 Saros.
Legarda, a senator from 1998 to 2004 and again in 2007, also allocated P200 million of her PDAF in 2010, 2011 and 2012 to NLDC, LGU and Napoles’s NGOs as beneficiaries. Legarda’s allocations were covered by eight Saros.
Honasan channeled P107 million of his PDAF to Napoles groups twice, through the NLDC on Sept, 18, 2009 and to the DA on April 1, 2008.
‘For Gringo Honasan’
On Oct. 22, 2009, another Luy document stated that P1.750 million was transferred to an account of JLN Corp. at the Metrobank Ortigas branch “for Gringo Honasan.”
Sen. Cynthia Villar supposedly received P500,000 as kickback allocated for members of the House minority bloc in 2003 with the DOTC as the implementing agency and Jo-Chris Trading as the link to Napoles.
JV Ejercito allocated P5 million through the Department of Interior and Local government when he was still San Juan representative in 2011, the records showed.
Also on the file was a letter supposedly from Recto dated Aug. 30, 2010, for Agrarian Reform Secretary Virgilio de los Reyes in which he requested P10 million for agrarian reform projects nationwide. No other record on Recto appears in Luy’s files.
In one of Luy’s records under the CA-DA 2005 allocations, Drilon was listed to have been allocated P5 million as head of the Commission on Appointments.
One of the letters in Luy’s files showed that Drilon wrote to budget Secretary Florencio Abad on Nov. 22, 2011, and requested for P100-million financial assistance, to be coursed through the DAR secretary. But according to Luy, speaking through his lawyer, Raji Mendoza, “the letter was drafted but no transactions took place, as far as his recollection” was concerned.
An April 3, 2007, entry in Luy’s records showed that Angara allocated P50 million of his PDAF in 2007 to 10 municipalities in Mindanao as beneficiaries.
Senator Manny Villar in 2003 with his allocation from the Congressional Initiatives Funds and the DOTC as the implementing agency procured equipment supplied by Jo-Chris Trading, owned by Napoles.
Pimentel’s cash advances
In 2003 and 2004, then Sen. Nene Pimentel allegedly funneled his PDAF to Napoles organizations and received cash advances of totaling P7.6 million in cash and checks all received by a Mon Arcenas between Sept. 9, 2003 and Nov. 6, 2003. The entry also showed that a delivery of a check “was at the Senate.”
Oreta, in 2003, allocated P45 million to various soft projects and received P10,890.00 as “cash advance received by Caloy and Johnny,” but Luy’s record showed that she returned the money. The entry also stated that a balance of P1 million was to be returned by Brian Yamsuan, Oreta’s chief of staff, and the project would be completed by another contractor.
Oreta also was included in the list of lawmakers in the DOTC project allocation of P4.5 million.
Biazon, now Muntinlupa Representative, allocated P92 million of his PDAF in 2004 and 2008 using various agents under implementing agencies Technology Resource Center and the DA based on cash releases records of Luy.
Former Sen. Loi Ejercito was also among the lawmakers who allocated the most number of pork barrel projects to Napoles’ NGOs between 2004 and 2008 using P285 million of taxpayers’ money.
Jaworksi in 2003 and 2004 allocated P29.l25 million of his PDAF to Napoles NGOs through LGUs in Mindanao and also to the DOTC.
Magsaysay allocated P4 million to two provinces in 2004-2005 through the Napoles organizations.
Revilla Sr. allocated P169.07 million of his PDAF in projects “nationwide” in 2003 and 2004. His cash advances were in manager’s check and cash received by a Rowena Mendiola. Other cash advances were given by Napoles herself, the records showed.
Barbers, who died in 2005, allocated P89 million of his PDAF in 2003 and 2004 in a “nationwide” project. His cash advances were received by a “Canda” and an “Atty. Laloy.”—With Inquirer Research
one fine day at the end of april 2014, we were greeted with headlines on print and broadcast media similar to what rappler.com had – vp jejomar binay an announced candidate for the 2016 presidential election tops all of them with a whopping 40% of the survey answers as the candidate the respondents will vote if the election was held today.
that is like a just little less than 2 years till the may 2016 elections. a long way off till election time.
and that is the reason why the other presidentiables (ahem, mar roxas and alan peter cayetano) should not panic. the standings of the candidates will change dramatically as we approach may 2016. that is guaranteed – dramatic and drastic.
people’s sentiments change over time and so does the behavior of the presidentiables, not to mention the campaign programs and ads the candidates will be releasing before and during the campaign period. more importantly, studies show that the farther from election time, the more fickle voters are. it says voters get to firm up their choices the nearer election time goes. many start firming up their choices just 1 to 2 weeks before the election. in fact for the swing votes, many firm up their choices just 1 or 2 days before election time.
these type of development can be seen in previous elections where we can see the dramatic changes in the survey standings of the presidentiables.
for posterity, we will be posting here the data tables of the this pulse asia march 2014 presidentiables survey and the other survey results for vice presidentiable and senatoriables. the charts have been picked up from rappler.com (read here : http://www.rappler.com/nation/56725-binay-runaway-winner-pulse-asia-poll)
we were surprised by the strong showing, on third, of senator miriam defensor santiago. her strong stance against the PDAF scam has put her on that spot.
grace poe has come out as second here mainly due to her strong showing in the senate hearings. she has come out as very intelligent and poised in these hearings.
vp jejomar binay coming out as top is no surprise. his position as VP has helped him a lot to be in that spot.
mar roxas although he has not declared he will run for president, but we all know he will run, came in very low at 5th with just 6% (versus binay’s 40%). perhaps his performance during the yolanda storm may have affected him here.
chiz escudero seem to be a perennial favorite for the vice presidential slot. maybe it is time for him to have a go at it.
we are shocked that senator tito sotto is among the top 3 specially when taking at look at where manny pacquaio is. sotto is among the top 3 while pacquaio is way below on the top 18. it is hard to reconcile how sotto a plagiarist can be on top and beat out pacquiao who is a national hero for many pinoys. makes us wonder that perhaps pacquaio is not as favored as we think or more importantly as what he thinks he is.
how should the candidates proceed from this?
- take the results with a mountain of salt
- need to monitor developments
- candidates and planners should draw some conclusions from the survey results
- common denominators should be pulled out
- from these conclusions, they should draw out a research plan
- conduct research based on these results
we think it is important for the candidates to draw learnings from thes results and draw up medium to long-term action plans.