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change has arrived – PDI uses the word “fuck” on its front page, a first in PHL journalism

June 3, 2016 Leave a comment

today, June 3, 2016 is a news day in the philippines. you may not feel it yet but you can certainly read it off at today’s issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

for the first time in this country’s history and history of Philippine journalism, a national newspaper has used the word “fuck” on the title of an article on its front page. no bleeps, no asterisks but good old, plain “fuck” in all it’s four letter glory.

not only was it used on the front page, it was used on the second lead article in the newspaper, right below the lead article for the day.

beyond the initial shock or glee from reading the word on the newspaper, we think there is a deeper reason for its use.

we are describing it as poetic. in simple terms, it can be described as PDI is making a point here.

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first the poetry in today’s PDI issue – look at the whole front page. top of the page is a big photo of outgoing president Noynoy Aquino beside the losing LP presidential candidate and Aquino’s cabinet members having wholesome fun on the videoke.

from that giant wholesome picture, right below it is the headline: “Seek to understand Duterte, aides urge” accompanied by a photo of Duterte here he seems to be smirking and close to looking arrogant and below it the magic word “fuck” in the article “Don’t fuck with me, he tells media”. then on the far left is the article explaining the wholesome picture on top of the newspaper “P’noy. Mar lead LP in singing blues away”

next, we think all that was intentional. it was designed and laid out that way with exact purpose. these are the messages :

  • draw  contrast between the outgoing and incoming presidents of the country
  • the outgoing president ad administration is all about fun and wholesome
  • the incoming president and administration of Duterte is all about “fucking” (“we are all fucked”?)
  • if not that, well at least the incoming president Duterte is not wholesome
  • the big irony of it all is that as the headline says, we are supposed to “understand” the incoming president

the contrast that PDI painted is clear, done in words and pictures that we all understand even if we didn’t think about it too much. it is obvious and plain to see.

but none of this is PDI’s fault – they are just giving it to us in words and pictures the thoughts that we have been suspecting specially in the past few days if not thoughts we have known all along and all that based on actual words and actions by Rody Duterte.

PDI’s front page just might be the signs of the times. and the sign starts with the word “fuck”.

Daang Matuwid failure – after 7 months, Roxas reaches only 4th and flat in the polls

March 25, 2016 Leave a comment

Mar Roxas’ presidential campaign is unique – it is the only campaign that has single-mindedly stayed on one platform and advertising campaign since it launched in end July, 2015 with the formal endorsement of President Noynoy Aquino at Club Filipino. Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” since imagesthat formal endorsement. In the words of Aquino, Mar Roxas will “continue Daang Matuwid”.

With that announcement, Roxas got a huge bump in the polls, surging from a single digit rating to a double digit rating. That was in September 2015 where his rating at Pulse Asia stood at 18% making him a legitimate contender among the presidentiables. The surge placed Roxas at 3rd and very close to Jejomar Binay who was at 2nd, That was the first time that Roxas placed strongly in the polls.

But that surge in September 2015 was the last good news Roxas has gotten in the polls. For seven (7) months since September 2015 that Roxas has stayed on “Daang Matuwid” , Roxas has not gotten any good news in the polls.

After seven (7) months, Roxas is still 4th out of 5 candidates and his ratings has remained flat, just moving within the range of 17% to 20%, close to being within the margin of error. Being within the margin of error means the differences in his ratings are not significant, his numbers have not really changed.

 

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This means “Daang Matuwid” is associated with failure, the most that it has given Roxas in the last seven (7) months of being single-minded on it is 4th place that is not moving at all. fourth place in an election will not win it.

In marketing and advertising an ad campaign or a brand positioning that is not delivering the results, like a rise in market share or an uptick in volume sales, is immediately dropped and changed into something else.

This action of dropping and changing ad campaigns and brand positioning is even more dire in a political campaign. A political campaign is short, lasting just months and has a definite deadline – election day. Not getting it right by election time means losing the election.

Mar Roxas’ “Daang Matuwid” for sure is a WAWAM!

Read also :

 

at last, a great TV ad for Mar Roxas!!! wait….

February 3, 2016 3 comments

hold your breath and watch this great TV ad for Mar Roxas….

i listened to every word, watched every visual and around the first 1/4 of the ad, i said, wow what a great TV ad for Mar Roxas. at last, Mar Rocas has a great TV ad, something we have all been waiting for.

i was looking forward to the ending on the ad. i said to myself, Roxas will appear at the end of the ad and say something smart and uplifting. i thought this will be a great end shot. the whole ad had great cinematography and it had a great tempo to it, so a great ending with Roxas saying something that will lift all our souls and give us hope is a great ending.

at last, the music told me the ad will end pretty soon, i eagerly waited for a glorious end shot of Mar Roxas….

and then i saw Ralph Recto’s face at the end shot! what????

the pounding in my heart stopped. i blinked twice and i felt so very disappointed it was not a Mar Roxas. it is a Ralph Recto ad!

OMG!

it’s a great ad. the contents were great, it’s uplifting and gave us hope. it made us feel good things about the country and the candidate. unfortunately not for Mar Roxas, the administration candidate languishing at the bottom of the surveys.

congratulations Ralph Recto – you aired a great ad!

okay before i continue with the halleluiahs, there is a problem with the ad – it is too long! it is a 60 second TV ad. i must admit the ad didn’t feel like it was a 60 second ad. it was so good that i didn’t notice, in fact i didn’t notice the length of the ad. honestly, i found out it was a 60 second TV ad only when i found the video at YouTube.

why am i making a big deal on the length of that ad? well, first the last time i saw a 60 second TV ad aired on TV was in the 70s. with very high cost of media airtime, nobody produces 60 second TV ads anymore, and that is the second reason why i am making a big deal of the length of the ad. airing this ad is very, very costly! but maybe Recto has tons of money to burn, so i’ll take a pass on the issue.

the ad is very presidential. it gives a very positive view of the country and what has been done in the philippines. it is so  presidential that i really thought it was an ad by Mar Roxas. in fact, if you put Noynoy Aquino at the end of this ad, it will also work very well.

Recto is running for senator. is this ad being so presidential bad for Recto? no. it sets Recto apart from other senatoriables. and if he had a hand in all of the things he listed there, he deserves  to be elected president, errr a seat at the senate.

this ad makes you feel good about the Philippines. and it tells you that we have done a lot and that Aquino should continue to be president, err Recto should be re-elected senator.

there is really nothing wrong with this ad. it is a great ad! the only thing wrong is that it’s not a Mar Roxas ad. but wait, that’s not Recto’s fault, it is the fault of the Mar Roxas team for not coming up with ads with this quality.

 

 

Leni Robredo’s trek to the vice president position : part 1

January 13, 2016 Leave a comment

thank you to blogwatch.ph (@blogwatchdotph) for inviting us to sit in during the session with LP’s vice presidentiable Leni Robredo.

there is something to be said about Leni Robredo, a vice presidentiable who gives her time to a group of bloggers and netizens to talk about issues and allow them to know who she is as a candidate and as a person.

and Leni Robredo needs the exposure. last october 19, 2015, we wrote in this blog (tittle : 2 things Leni Robredo should do to win) that to win, she needs to address her low awareness on a national level. Robredo is known in Naga and to a certain degree in Metro Manila. but with her experience and work concentrated on a local level at Naga, she is hardly known nationally specially when compared to her competitors in the vice-presidential race who are all nationally elected senators. they all have a national political base and are known on a national level.

this meeting with the blogwatch.ph will help address the need we identified in October 2015.

excerpts:

survey results notwithstanding, Robredo has 2 huge but very basic marketing things that she needs to do to win:

  1. address low awareness on a national level – robredo may be known in here hometown and to some degree in Metro Manila but she is hardly known in the rest of the country. that is a key issue as the position she is running for is national in scope, she needs the rest of the country to know who she is.
  2. what is the Leni Robredo brand equity or brand positioning? together with the issue of low awareness, Robredo’s other big problem and this can be much bigger than the first is nobody knows what she stands for. what is her brand equity or brand positioning of Robredo?

read: https://2010presidentiables.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/2-things-leni-robredo-should-do-to-win/

since October, Robredo has gone to other parts of the country to get to know the people and to allow the people to know her. she has aired some advertising which based onIMG_3550 the monitoring was about P91M in 2015 and places her 11th highest ad spender among the national candidates and 3rd highest among vice-presidentiables. the ad spending may be not much, but it is a move in the right direction.

what is interesting is that during the blogwatch.ph discussion, she admitted she was surprised by the amount of money spent on her TV ads. she said she did not have money to spend for the ads and the money for sure did not come from her. her party, the LP had spent for the ads. according to her, senator bam aquino is the one managing her campaign and would know the details of the ad spending.

honestly, we do not remember what ad she aired during that time. but i remember it was not a remarkable ad. it was forgettable and too run of the mill.

in a scenario where there is very low brand awareness, ads like the one she aired, boring it may be, is a good thing. the ad for sure will add awareness and build some brand equity for her.

however, for whatever brand equity she has gotten from the ads, it is on shaky grounds as a non-remarkable ad that builds an equity means the equity is vulnerable to erosion specially when the other vice presidential candidates start airing their own ads during the campaign  period which started just a few days ago.

the survey results recently released show that Robredo’s campaign is doing very well. it also supports the points we raised on what Robredo needs to win the election – increase awareness and a brand equity definition.

a few days ago, we tweeted that Robredo should aim to get more interviews to get media exposure, for more people to hear and see her. in the times that we have seen her during interviews, we were continually and exponentially  impressed by her. we thought more voters getting this experience, the more she gains supporters.

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the survey results are very good for Robredo. she was on a surge in the latest mid-December poll from SWS. from a very low 7% in September 2014, she gained a +16% points in December 2015, to 19% from 3%. more importantly her ranking jumped to a tie at 2nd with Marcos coming from 5th in September.

the surge in the surveys may have been driven  by the announcement of her candidacy and the endorsement from president Noynoy Aquino and the LP presidentiable Mar Roxas and the media attention given to her after the announcement. in other words, Robredo generated awareness and started to define her brand equity.

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her ratings in the survey has defined her as competitive even when faced with incumbent senators who already have a national standing.

the question is can she sustain this upward trajectory in the coming weeks?

~~~ more to follow ~~~

 

 

 

 

 

Roxas surges up, jumps from far 4th to tie declining Binay at 2nd – Pulse Asia

September 29, 2015 Leave a comment

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Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:

  • Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
  • Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
  • Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
  • the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
  • of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
  • in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined

just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.

we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.

the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.

Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.

aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.

the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president  is  the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.

the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.

that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.

as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.

Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.

with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed  against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.

Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.

it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.

when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points.  a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.

for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed.  for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.

based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.

are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?

 

 

 

 

triple whammy for Poe, Roxas & Binay in latest SWS survey, Roxas gains the most

September 23, 2015 1 comment

Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 12.28.45 PMApparently there is a second survey for the presidentiables from SWS and this one puts presidenitables Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas practically on a there-way tie.

The survey was conducted Septemebr 2 to 5, 2105 and has the following ratings for the three presidentiables :

  • Grace Poe : 26%
  • Jemomar Binay : 24% (difference vs Poe – 2% points) 
  • Mar Roxas : 20% (dofference vs Binay – 4% points)

(source : http://www.rappler.com/nation/politics/elections/2016/106788-sws-survey-breakdown-presidential-tie)

With a margin of error at +/- 3%, Poe and Binay are on a statistical tie while  Roxas  vs Binay with a difference of 4% points is statistically significant but  it being just shy by 1% point, that is considered a statistical tie.

unlike the other SWS survey which was an options survey (respondents were asked to name 3 candidates who can replace Aquino), this is a real elections survey where respondents were asked to identify only 1 candidate who they might vote as president if the elections were held during the time of the survey.

this survey gave a triple whammy to all three presdientiables Poe, Binay and Roxas.

1st whammy – this is the biggest whammy and it is for the benefit of Mar Roxas. mar roxas before this survey was a far third to Poe and Binay. roxas jumping to tie the front runners is a big jump for roxas. this mimics the same kind of giant improvement that Roxas got in the other SWS survey where he got a +18% point improvement catapulting him to 2nd position (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-1W0).

this shows Roxas is a legitimate contender in the election and is on an impressive increasing trend. the increasing trend will serve Roxas well as we move to the actual election in 2016, this means Roxas is building his support base at the same time the support base of Poe and Binay are not moving if not weakening.

2nd whammy – this one hurts Garce Poe. Poe in previous surveys showed she was way ahead of the others and was a clear leader. this survey with two of her rivals catching up with her shows she is not invincible. it says she can be beaten.

3rd whammy – this hurts Jejomar Binay. Binay used to be the runaway winner in the polls but his ratings have been suffering and was on a massive declining trend since the corruption and plunder charges have been exposed in the senate. Binay just getting  a tie with the two others means Binay has not arrested his declining trend and continue to suffer in the polls.

unless Binay changes things, like address the corruption and plunder charges against him, the declining trend will continue and his numbers will shrink significantly by election time. it is possible that the shrinkage will be big enough that the other leaders will overtake him.

Roxas’ ratings have gone up driven by the endorsement of President Aquino for his presidentiable run and Roxas’ declaring that he will continue Aquino’s “Daang Matuwid”. Aquino endorsed Roxas’ presidential run in an event held at Club Filipino on August 30, 2015. Roxas also ran ads almost the next day where he said he will continue Aquino’s “Dang Matuwid”.

Roxas has gained the momentum from this survey and will allow him to enlarge his support base.

Poe will need to work harder to get back her stellar number one position. Let us see if her numbers will improve on the next survey behind her announcement that she will run for president in an event that happened after this survey was conducted.

——–

Question On Methodology & Design For SWS :

we noticed that the two presidentiables surveys, the options survey and this election survey were run on the same time period. did that mean the questions for the these two separate surveys were in one questionnaire and both were asked of the respondents in the same sitting?

if so, was there no order bias in their answers? 

i would think there would be order bias and one or both of the answers of the respondents will be affected by the other. it would be difficult to accept the survey results if there was order bias. 

Mar Roxas to get boost from President Aquino’s rising popularity

September 17, 2015 Leave a comment

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Aquino satisfaction best since Q1 2014

PUBLIC SATISFACTION with President Benigno S. C. Aquino III hit its highest point in one-and-a-half years this quarter, fueled by significant improvements in most geographical areas except Mindanao and across socioeconomic classes except ABC, according to results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.

read more here : http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=TopStory&title=aquino-satisfaction-best-since-q1-2014&id=115452

latest poll shows president aquino’s net satisfaction rating is on the rise, highest since Q1 2014 according to SWS as published at Business World. this confirms once again that president aquino is the country’s most popular president.

this rise in satisfaction rating comes at a great time for Mar Roxas who recently had announced he is running for president under the LP. this is a benefit to Roxas as Aquino has endorsed Roxas’ run for the presidency.

Roxas has declared he is ready for the presidency and accepts the challenge of continuing Aquino’s “daang matuwid” governance and the platform by which aquino won the election by a landslide.

the “daang matuwid” and aquino’s rising popularity is in contrast to the continuing unanswered graft and corruption charges against Roxas’ main rival for the presidency VP Jejomar Binay.

Roxas is a far third in the latest polls although he has recovered significantly in the latest poll from the previous. Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas may give Roxas the push to challenge the leader Poe and the previous leader Binay. Poe now leads the polls, followed by Binay and Roxas at third.

the latest presdientiables surveys will be released soon, lets see how this all plays out for Roxas.

in picking a fight with Aquino, Binay gets a truckload of rocks and hits his head with each rock

June 28, 2015 Leave a comment

this is the kindest way to describe what VP Binay just did – he shot himself in the foot in picking a fight with president aquino. we see no strategic value or benefit for him or even any tactical advantage for his presidential campaign. all it has given him are more problems and harm. 

  • one of the important things you do for a political campaign is to build coalitions and expand your support base. this is probably one of the top 3 important things that need to be done in a political campaign. elections are won by having the most number of votes compared to your competitors. building coalitions and getting the biggest number of support base is a must, you assign this task to someone in your team to focus on it to make sure you are successful at it,
  • by attacking president aquino, presidential binay did not only not do the above, he actually did the exact opposite of it – binay added another enemy to his already long list of enemies. binay is being attacked by many from all sides mainly as a result of the graft and corruption allegations that have been in full display on national TV at the senate. for many months now, most of what binay, his spokespersons and his children have been doing is deflect the mud and slime that has accumulated on binay’s  face. they have been unsuccessful and they need aquino as an enemy like they need a bullet in their heads.
  • inviting aquino as an enemy is to say the least a very unfortunate and highly ill-advised choice. noynoy aquino is the country’s most popular president and continue to remain popular even though he has had some problems in recent months. common sense tells you if you are to invite someone as an enemy, choose someone who is weaker than you  or at least someone you know you can win over. binay instead chose the most powerful and most popular political figure in the country.
  • not only is aquino a popular president, he has built his presidency and in fact his election campaign that got him a landslide victory in the last election on the platform of “anti-corruption”. now that on its own is already formidable. choosing aquino as an enemy is clearly political suicide for binay because binay is now known for being corrupt and dishonest. aquino. an anti-corruption champion is exactly the person that binay the corrupt does not want to face. people will compare the two and people will decide who to believe. who is more believable – on the issue of credibility, aquino, the anti-corruption champion or  presidentiable Binay who has been charged with corruption? this is like the sinner picking a fight with the Pope.
  • aquino has a large support base and allies across the political spectrum. together with aquino they will be defending aquino and can possibly start attacking binay as well. that is not even including yet the office of the president, malacanang itself which probably has the largest communication group in the government. we are already seeing this  – the various spokespersons and allies of aquino including mar roxas have started to defend and counter attack binay, picking a fight with aquino means picking a fight with more than one person. binay now has to deal with each one of them.
  • if binay was busy skirting the corruption allegations against him brought up at the senate, now aquino, malacanang and his allies will be added to that existing list. this new enemy that binay invited to join in will take up a lot of his time and effort, a clear distraction on the business of having himself elected as president. it will eat up his time and effort, taking away precious time and effort from persuading voters to elect him. getting the voters to like him is already very difficult given the corruption allegations; the attacks from Aquino, his allies and supporters will just make everything much more difficult if not impossible.
  • all these is good news to binay’s opponents, the other presdiencitables. they are now all sitting in the sidelines watching the whole thing unfold, watching binay burn. they don’t even have to do anything to pull down binay. binay is doing it to himself plus aquino, his allies and supporters.

all of the above makes you wonder – why is binay doing this? aquino is the president of the country, he is the anti-corruption champion and more importantly, he is NOT  running for president in 2016. pulling down aquino has no real obvious or hidden value to binay. even if binay succeeds in putting down aquino’s approval rating to zero, that will not do anything to binay’s own ratings nor will that bring down the ratings of the other presidentiables.

supporters of aquino will not move to binay to increase his ratings. aquino has nothing to do with the dramatic declines in binay’s election poll ratings. bringing aquino down will not result to stopping the declining trend of binay’s ratings nor will it reverse the trend. the cause of the decline are the graft and corruption charges that have been nationally televised during the senate hearings. to arrest the decline in his ratings is to answer those allegations and prove them wrong. binay has taken the strategy of ignoring the allegations, of not answering them of bringing up unrelated and imagined issues just so he does not directly answer the allegations. no amount of talk of other issues will resolve his problem. the label of corruption has been stuck on binay. putting in more stickers will not remove the corruption sicker. that is where the focus is of the people.

what could have been binay’s other option? it could have been a simple one – resign from the cabinet and say he is doing so so that he can focus on the preparations that are needed to be done for his presidential run and profusely thank aquino for allowing to serve the country in the capacities that were given to him. had binay done that, none of these things would have happened. no additional enemies and certainly no additional negative talk about binay. resigning amicably and profusely thanking aquino would have prevented aquino and his allies, even aquino’s anointed from attacking binay. that would have been the masterful exit.

the strategic thinking on this move of binay has failed. we do not even think there was some strategic thinking done on it. none was done as we do not see how binay would have benefited from this move. we can’t figure out even a single benefit. the only possible “benefit” was that binay has clearly declared himself as separate and not part of the aquino administration, the administration that he intends to replace. if this was the objective, it is completely unnecessary and totally worthless. we already know binay is not part of the administration, we know that from his actions and words and that of malacanang, telling us something we already know has no value.

if he wants to present his own platform of government that is different from the administration, he can do that just by coming out with a press release or a major speech on policy. breaking up with the administration and attacking it was unnecessary.

bottom line is with what binay did he gained absolutely nothing but lost a hell lot of things. this is a case of not just getting a rock and hitting your head with it, it is getting a whole truckload of rocks and hitting your head with each rock until the truck is emptied of rocks.

Aquino’s performance and trust ratings suffer a dramatic giant drop after Mamasapano

March 17, 2015 Leave a comment

-21 percentage points (performance)  and -20 percentage points (trust) are very dramatic drops. aquino’s ratings at its lowest is an added kick in the burr. this is how people see aquino’s performance during the Mamasapano SAF 44 incident.

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the significant drop in performance rating was the very dramatic increase in “disapproval” ratings across the board, in all areas and all socio-eco classes and in almost all at least double in increase versus previous rating.

 

Aquino Perf Mar2015_B

the Pope Francis Philippine visit – the speeches, the selfie and the 12yr old girl who made us cry

January 18, 2015 1 comment

VP Binay reaction captured by camera when Pope Francis talked about corruptio

January 16, 2015 57 comments

this was this morning at Malacanang during Pope Francis’ speech. the camera seemed to have captured VP Binay’s reaction when Pope Francis said “Reject all corruption that divert resources from the poor.

the picture seem to have captured the moment when Pope Francis said those words. look at the picture it was literally ONLY VP Binay who looked away from the Pope, the opposite of where everyone was looking. everyone in the picture, including his wife Elenita was looking at the pope.

the reaction was priceless!

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the moment Pope Francis spoke about rejecting corruption, philippine social media exploded with tweets on the topic. admit it – we are guessing the moment Pope Francis mentioned “rejecting corruption” you like most people thought of VP Binay! yes?

we have a twitter account (@wawam) and one of our tweets was quoted at rappler.com

rappler wawam

read it here: http://www.rappler.com/specials/pope-francis-ph/81000-social-media-pope-aquino-speeches

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#1MonthSalaryBonus for all government agency personnel who served in Pope Francis visit

read it here : https://wawam.wordpress.com/2015/01/18/1monthsalarybonus-for-all-government-agency-personnel-who-served-in-pope-francis-visit/

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wawam nyt

As Pope Francis Visits Philippines, Tensions Between Church and Government Surface

read here : http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/world/asia/after-meeting-with-pope-francis-philippine-president-criticizes-local-church-leaders.html?_r=0

this was the tweet that was included there:

we had other tweets on the Pope Francis philippine visit:

there were some on social media making something out of the color of the raincoats that were distributed and used by people in Tacloban – color yellow. they were making a point that the yellow color is an epal attempt by Aquino.

this tweet is the explanation, yellow is the papal color and in fact the Vatican City flag is in yellow and white.

this is the first selfie taken with Pope Francis. taken at Villamor Airbase today on his return from Tacloban.

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don’t take SWS yolanda survey on aquino’s “satisfaction performance” seriously – defective design

January 26, 2014 Leave a comment

i was very surprised when media carried this news on the latest SWS survey results that said super typhoon yolanda victims themselves gave president aquino a “very good” performance satisfaction rating.

SWS: PNoy gets ‘very good’ satisfaction ratings from Yolanda victims

Although he has received criticism from some parties for his administration’s response to super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), President Benigno Aquino III got “very good” satisfaction marks from victims of the typhoon, according to a survey by Social Weather Stations.

SWS said this was the finding of its survey last Dec. 11 to 16, where Yolanda victims – which comprised 13 percent of Filipino families – gave Aquino a “very good” +54 net satisfaction rating.

“The December 2013 survey found higher satisfaction ratings for President Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino III among victims of Yolanda compared to those who were not victimized by the super typhoon,” the survey said.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/345123/news/nation/sws-pnoy-gets-very-good-satisfaction-ratings-from-yolanda-victims\

essentially the same story was reported by other media outlets. reading the news stories alone, i immediately had a different reaction to the survey results which i tweeted (@wawam). will talk about this next. 

of course malacanang jumped on the “good news”.

Palace ecstatic over Aquino’s ‘very good’ satisfaction rating

MANILA, Philippines— Malacañang  gave itself a pat on the back on Thursday after the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed that Super Typhoon “Yolanda” victims were satisfied with the performance of President Benigno Aquino III during and after its devastation.

“It is gratifying that those who suffered greatly appreciate what their President and their government have done to ease their pain and alleviate their plight despite the shortcomings and challenges still being hurdled,” Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. said Thursday in a press briefing.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/568259/palace-ecstatic-over-aquino-very-good-satisfaction-rating#ixzz2rTD2g5nU
Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

just based on the survey results published in media, i thought something was not right about the survey which i tweeted:

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  1. the respondent base for yolanda victims appeared to have been just extrapolated, not a stand alone respondent base. it appeared to me SWS re-looked at the survey results and counted the results of those who live in the yolanda areas and tabulated these results. i felt SWS did not actually conduct a separate survey to ask the respondents these questions but just looked at the survey results of an already finished survey
  2.  coming from the above, i thought the question asked was a general “performance satisfaction” of president  aquino and not specific to aquino’s performance on the yolanda relief efforts. it is very possible that respondents will give very different answers to these questions.

last january 22, SWS posted the specifics of the survey results : i was both right and wrong on the point #1 and was right on point #2. conclusion remains – let us not take these results seriously, the results are what we call in research “soft results”.

i was wrong on point #1 because SWS did not just extrapolate the answers of those living in the yolanda areas what they did was they actually asked the respondents if they were affected by the yolanda.

there could have been 2 ways to extrapolate – 1 is by just applying the % of  respondents living in the yolanda areas to the total results of the total visayas results (a very wrong thing to do) or look at the respondent answer sheets and count the answers of those declaring their address to be in yolanda areas. none of these were done. what they did was they asked a direct question.

i was right in the sense that SWS did not conduct a separate and stand alone survey among those living in the yolanda areas. this should have been the cleanest way to do it. you get an actual sample size in the areas themselves.

since SWS just asked the question among respondents if they were affected by yolanda, this brings up two more questions – is the sample size of 13% enough to read the results and how accurate is it to say that these respondents actually “lived in yolanda areas” when these were just “claimed”.

on the point #2, i was proven right.

the question was a generic performance satisfaction question – “satisfied or dissatisfied in performance as president of the philippines”  and not specific to the performance of the president on post yolanda relief efforts.

the specific “performance on yolanda efforts” can get a very different answer from the generic “performance as president of the philippines”. the first zeroes in on yolanda while the second one includes everything about the presidency and the country in general.

for example, if we ask our spouse, we could be a “very good husband/wife”  as a whole but a “very poor sex partner” in a specific component of marriage.

we do not know why SWS released these survey results and how media plus malacanang take these results when the survey design is critically flawed.

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