mar roxas defeat : wrong reading & strategic error or dropping of support?

found this article at PDI. roxas supporters are blaming aquino supporters dropping their support on mar roxas as the reason for the mar roxas losing this election. that was their conclusion.

but going through the article, that does not seem to be the reason for the loss. as they themselves said, they had misread the competitive landscape and made strategic errors in identifying who their key competitor is in this election.

based on this article, rather than aquino supporters dropping their support on roxas as the reason for roxas’ loss, these were the strategic errors they committed that led to roxas losing the election:

• they became over-confident when they saw loren legarda unable to catch up. they gave too much focus on legarda.
• shifting resources away from roxas to support aquino was a big mistake. you never leave your candidate unattended to.
• they were unable to see the resurgence of jejomar binay and were unable to launch a counter attack at the right time

competitive analysis and competitive watching is very important in marketing and apparently also in a vice presidential election. this is where the roxas campaign failed. they made very critical errors in reading the competitive set and dynamics.

Roxas supporters blame VP defeat on Aquino backers
By Nestor P. Burgos Jr.
Inquirer Visayas
First Posted 07:01:00 06/10/2010

ILOILO CITY—Some supporters of Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II here blamed the defeat of the Liberal Party (LP) vice presidential candidate on supporters of President-elect Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III who allegedly junked Roxas in favor of Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay.

“It hurt us that Aquino supporters were sleeping with the enemy,” an LP leader on Panay Island told the Inquirer on condition of anonymity for lack of authority to speak on the issue.

The “Noy-Bi (Aquino-Binay)” factions, which included several core groups in the Aquino camp, tipped the balance in favor of Binay, who was running under the rival Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino party.

Caught off guard

The LP insider said Roxas’ supporters in Panay were caught off guard by Binay’s surge, saying they were focused on keeping Sen. Loren Legarda of the Nacionalista Party at bay.

“We were confident of victory against Loren so we shifted the focus of the campaign and concentrated on Aquino in the last few weeks before the May 10 elections,” he said.

“We saw (Sen. Manuel Villar) inching up on Aquino and decided to re-channel our efforts to Noynoy. We did not anticipate Binay surging ahead,” the LP insider admitted.

He said the Roxas machinery practically shouldered the campaign and funding of the LP campaign on Panay Island, including the campaign for Aquino.

Junked

“We dedicated our machinery and resources for Aquino and ended up being junked by some of Aquino’s supporters. That was disappointing,” the party insider said.

But he acknowledged that Binay’s last-minute but aggressive campaigning among mayors on Panay Island dented Roxas’ hometown lead.

Binay’s people approached mayors, even those aligned with the LP, offering money and trying to win them over to an Aquino-Binay tandem, the LP leader claimed.

The junking of Roxas by Aquino supporters and the last-minute campaign of Binay supporters are seen as the reason Roxas did not lead by as large a margin as expected even in his supposed bailiwicks.

In Capiz, Roxas won over Binay with a margin of 116,526 votes—204,839 votes for Roxas against 88,313 votes for Binay.

final count: jejomar binay wins by 727T votes, 41.6% of the vote

bad news for mar roxas – both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls show a Jejomar Binay win

the current COMELEC and GMA7 unofficial partial tally of votes put jejomar  binay and mar roxas to close to call with a spread of only 800T votes with binay leading but 6 million votes still uncounted. binay has claimed victory, saying only an electronic garci can change the outcome while roxas says he will win by a squeaker when the votes from visayas are counted, roxas’ bailiwick. both are saying these are based on reports from their supporters who are in the field.

however, both SWS and Pulse Asia exit polls point to a binay win with pulse asia giving it to binay with a 5.3% points margin. with a 1% sampling error, that puts binay a slight winner. SWS gives it to binay a 2.4% points margin.

roxas saying the visayas as his bailiwick is being confirmed by the pulse asia exit poll where he dominates with 54.7% versus binay’s 25.4%. however, binay dominates roxas almost with the same large margin in all other areas – NCR, Luzon and Mindanao. 

source: http://pulseasia.com.ph/pulseasia/story.asp?ID=720

source: http://www.sws.org.ph/

at 90%, binay still leads with 802T: partial unofficial tally

why the loren legarda campaign collapsed – the drama queen factor

loren legarda’s ratings in the poll to begin with was bad,, mar roxas dominating the polls for vice-presidentiables from the very beginning, with mar enjoying double the ratings that legarda was getting.

recent movements in the polls for the vice-presidential race show dramatic changes – with jejomar binay resurgent, roxas softening while legarda collapsing badly. 

what? jejomar binay?  

that is the question most have been asking, binay has not done anything spectacularly different and attention calling in the recent weeks., how did binay manage to now be in the running in the election?

first, it’s the halo effect from a resurgent erap estrada. estrada and binays poll results rose at about the same time. estrada gaining in the polls had a positive effect on binay.

more than that, binay’s poll ratings went up as he gained supporters from the collapse of legarda in the polls. it appears a large part of those who abandoned legarda went to binay and much less to roxas. binay was the biggest beneficiary of the collapse of the legarda campaign.

we think advertising has a lot to do with it as well. from what we have seen, legarda have had a lot more tv ads aired over binay. but a look at the ads of legarda tells us these were ads that she should have not aired at all.

the ads of legarda depicted her as the essential drama queen  with her melodramatic, pa-drama effect delivery of her lines, the slow motion camera movements (or at least that is how it seems) and the ho-hum messages.  the legarda tv ads was just too personal and intimate  – the idea of  loren legarda taking care of everyone, the mother hen who will fix everything.

what makes these ads worst is the way she delivered her lines. she delivered all of them in a hushed, slow paced, tear jerky type of delivery that it makes the whole ad insincere, fake  and we are sure to many very funny. it was just too much on the emotions. or at least a trying hard effect on tugging at the hearts of voters.

we have written about legarda here before the election and we called her the drama queen for keeping us in so much in suspense if first will she run for president, then next as vice-president, then with what political party. in every interview during that time, she kept on the drama of suspending for all of us to watch the number of times she changed her mind and the length of time she needed to decide what to do with here political career.

we think in theses ads legarda simply  carried true what she really is – a drama queen.

• at last – loren legarda joins manny villar as VP. but let’s wait till 3:30 pm for the drama queen to say it
• drama queen senator loren legarda to announce 2010 plans within the week! oh, oh – here we go again!

The 2010 Presidentiables Blog Poll For Vice-Presidentiables – bayani fernando is #1

bayani fernando

edu manzano

jejomar binay

loren legarda

mar roxas

perfecto yasay

January 2, 2010, 7pm – yasay surges to 3rd place with 10%.  fernando keeps dominance at 48%, followed by roxas at 19% at 3rd.

December 10, 2009, 7am – bayani fernando takes an early and commanding lead at 45%, followed by mar roxas at 25%. the rest of the vice-presidentiables are very far behind with binay at 8%. “none of the above” in this poll is high at 9%.

December 2, 2009 – we are opening a fresh poll for the vice-presidential election that includes only the official list, those candidates who filed their Certificate Of Candidacy the deadline of submission of  which was yesterday.

Please vote. The software will allow to to vote only once.

jejomar binay on a miracle ride, ties mar roxas in May 2010 SWS survey

where did all of this come from? what just happened?

those are the exact questions we asked ourselves when we read the news. we saw the rise of binay in the polls, but we did not expect his meteoric rise in the polls. we don’r remember seeing new tv ads or new statements made by binay to explain the movements on binay’s ratings.  we thought it was just a halo effect coming from the rise of estrada in the polls.

for sure, the fall of loren legarda has a lot to do on this one. together with manny villar, loren legarda has been showing weak ratings. we think the supporters of legarda are abandoning him and binay is the beneficiary of that movement, not roxas.

now we have a real competition in the VP race. it will be an interesting run until election day.

Binay ties Roxas; Noynoy widens lead in new SWS survey

The vice presidential race continued to heat up as the elections draw nearer, with Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay tying Senator Manuel Roxas II, who previously dominated pre-election surveys.

In the latest survey conducted by the Social Weather Stations (SWS) last May 2 to 3, Binay and Roxas received a voting preference of 37 percent each. The results were posted on Thursday by television personality Kris Aquino-Yap on her official Twitter account.

Kris is the youngest sister of presidential front runner Sen. Benigno Aquino III.

The survey was supposedly commissioned by BusinessWorld. The results are expected to be made public on Friday. BusinessWorld refused to comment on the matter, even as sources from the Aquino camp confirmed the results.

Roxas’ rating was two points lower, while Binay picked up 12 points from the poll conducted last April. [See: Roxas rating drops as Binay’s picks up]

Sen. Loren Legarda, who previously ranked second, dropped by 12 points to score 12 percent.

In the presidential derby, meanwhile, Aquino has widened further his lead, getting 42 percent.

Former President Joseph Estrada, who obtained 20 percent, zoomed past former second placer Senator Manuel Villar Jr., who received a 19-percent voting preference.

Administration bet Gilberto Teodoro Jr. scored 9 points. — LBG, GMANews.TV

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/190239/binay-ties-roxas-noynoy-widens-lead-in-new-sws-survey

jejomar binay surges to 2nd spot in april pulse asia survey

SWS-Business World poll: jejomar binay’s phenomenal rise to 2nd makes him a contender in VP race

looking at the chart, there are two conclusions that you will make: jejomar binay is in a phenomenal rise that he not only has over taken loren legarda who used to be 2nd, he is now a real contender to the VP race.

the other conclusion you will make is mar roxas cannot be complacent -he has a declining trend and it is showing it’s possible the three of them will meet at some point to contest the VP slot.

that is a fair conclusion IF we just look at the chart. but there is a fact that is not in the chart that will play a major role – the election will be held in two week’s time.  unfortunately for binay, he probably has no more time to get his ratings to the point that he will seriously threaten roxas.

the only way for binay to catch up with roxas is to launch heavy advertising, cover half the country in public meetings or engage roxas in a controversy that he will win. at last 2 of those 3 items are impossible for him to do.

we wonder if the vice presidential race has a direct correlation with the presidentiable race. the trends of the top contenders are fairly consistent with the presidentiable race – roxa’s presidentiable aquino;s rating are on a plateau to a slight decline, legarda’s manny villar partner is on a clear decline and binay’s presidentiable era estrada is a strong 3rd. superficially, it looks like the two three VP are taking the same kind of trend as their presidentiable partner.

pulse asia march 2010 vice-presidentiable survey – mar roxas dominates, binay surges up

mar roxas continues to dominate, with 43%  maintaining a wide margin versus loren legarda who is a far second at 23%, almost one half of roxas’ rating. legarda’s deteriorating rating seem to mirror the same trend her presidential partner manny villar is experiencing in the poll.

there is a huge difference in quality of ads between the legarda and roxas ad campaigns.  legarda runs this melodramatic, slow and boring tv ads with weak to nowhere strategy versus mar roxas, uplifting, engaging and very real tv ads.  when you see legarda’s tv ads – you feel like crying but you do not know if you want to cry because of her meaningless message and flat line tone of the ads or out of pity that she is running such crappy tv ads. it is hard to imagine what possessed her to run such ads.

the other news here is the surge of jejomar binay who gained +4% points. this maybe due to the wider exposure he has been getting through the numerous sorties they have been doing around the country.

mar roxas’ “sacrifice” tvc

this is next at The 2010 Presidentiables Blog

mr. pink, the uglifier of metro manila bayani fernando to run for vice president – smart move, almost

we think it is right for mr. pink bayani fernando to drop his run for the presidency, his chances of winning without a party is anywhere from zero to nil.

bayani fernando

we also think his running for vice president is right, well almost. we think fernando will make an excellent vice president for any candidate. he has the passion and the energy to get things done, no matter what. these are very good qualities as a 2nd in command.

there is the almost there as we think he will have a hard time to win this election as VP. running for the senate would be much better for him but the vice-presidency is a tough fight for him.

we wish mr. pink, the uglifier of metro manila,  bayani fernando all the best.

MMDA chief declares VP bid but mum on presidential bet

 By Allison Lopez
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 09:07:00 12/01/2009

MANILA, Philippines – Outgoing Metropolitan Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando has finally declared that he would be running for vice president.

Fernando announced at 8:30 a.m. Tuesday that that he was filing his certificate of candidacy at the Commission on Elections at 1 p.m., during the formal turnover ceremony at the MMDA office in Guadalupe, Makati City.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/nation/view/20091201-239527/MMDA-chief-declares-VP-bid-but-mum-on-presidential-bet