sometime mid March, we posted a chart over twitter for the Mar Roxas campaign. at that point there were many data points that were showing the Roxas campaign was not going anywhere. Roxas’ ratings in the polls were not going up.
in many of Mar Roxas supporters’ minds was the question – can Mar Roxas till win the election? and other questions like – what can Roxas still do to win? is it too late for him?
those questions were being asked of me over at twitter since i had taken the view that the Mar Roxas campaign was failing. having a weak campaign was a view i took since November 2o15 when i started tweeting about it. that POV was based just on an analysis of the Mar Roxas ad campaign and the resulting brand positioning that Roxas has taken. it was anchored the ad campaign and brand poisoning of “Daang Matuwid” which is the main weakness.
at that time in November there were still a few quantitative data points to support my analysis and point of view. but that changed by February 2016 when there were already an avalanche of data points that showed the Roxas campaign was failing – poll results showed he was stuck at 4th place in a field of 5 candidates and his ratings were not moving at all, it was flat within the 18% to 20% range.
this will deal with number 3 on the above – “air attack ads vs Binay, Poe and Duterte”. they are Mar Roxas’ opponents who occupy the first 3 positions ahead of his 4th ranking.
at this point, Mar Roxas’ campaign objective need to be : add supporters by gaining from and converting supporters of his opponents to his side.
he is 4th and at best has 20% in the polls. those will not win the election for him. he will obviously need to go up to 1st with at least a 35% rating. that means he needs to take 15% points from his competitors. he needs to convert that many supporters of his opponents to his side,
one of the most effective ways to do that is to air attack ads against his opponents. attack ads are ads that question the credibility, put in doubt the abilities and correct the wrongs said or done by Roxas’ opponents. the target audience are the supporters of his opponents and the goal is to convince them that they are supporting the wrong candidate and instead shift their support for Roxas.
today, we saw over at twitter memes on Grace Poe based on her performance during the last second presidential debate. these are “fact check” memes – these memes are correcting the wrong things that Poe said during the debate. these to us is a form of attack ads.
there were many more “fact check” violations committed by Grace Poe during the debate. and even much more committed by the other candidates, Rody Duterte and Jejomar Binay.
over at Twitter, i suggested to the mar Roxas campaign and Mar Roxas supporters to do more fact check memes on Poe and specially the other opponents of Roxas.
memes are cheap to make but we think if done well and in good numbers, it can be effective specially if traditional media picks them up.
attack ads are what Mar Roxas needs. they are not a WAWAM!
in no particular order:
Presidentiable Jejomar Binay’s “Nognog” TV ad campaign
there is a new version under the “nognog” campaign that was aired today but it is not yet available at YouTube.
these two ads were the start of the “Nognog” campaign and these ads are associated with reversing Binay’s declining numbers at the presidentiable polls and in fact had put him back at the #1 spot.
we were shocked when these ads aired. the ads directly addressed the issues of allegations of graft and corruption on Binay which have been on the headlines for many months and the reason for the dramatic declines Binay have been suffering at the polls. Binay was definitely on a steep declining trend when these ads aired.
after the ads aired and the surveys released covering the period of airing, the numbers of Binay spiked up. in fact they were a dramatic reversal of the umbers and placed Binay back on top.
the ad effectively redefined the allegations of corruption and graft against Binay. he has been saying these to the press and in appearances in the provinces but it really didn’t do much to change his ratings. that is, until the ads were aired.
we think what made this ad work was the term “nognog” that he called himself in the ads. “nognog” is a derogatory term used on dark skinned Filipinos that was often used against him by anti-Binay voters. Binay is dark skinned and short (pandak).
“nognog” is also something that most Filipinos can relate to. while it may be a negative or derogatory among the Filipino rich who are fair-skinned Filipinos, it is a fair and acceptable description used by the masses among themselves. its use suddenly allowed the masa to relate to Binay.
we think Binay’s “nognog” has the potential to be the “Mr. Palengke” of Mar Roxas when he resoundingly won his senate seat.
Senatorial Leila De Lima’s “Justice without fear or favor”
this just aired today. it was different and called your attention. you paid attention to this ad. it is highly creative and you do get the message. this ad is able to give De Lima an excellent brand positioning among the senatoriables. this ad was so good that De Lima was trending on twitter after the ad aired. the Philippine Daily Inquirer also had an article on it at their website. this extra mileage is what you get when you air a good ad. this ad can push De Lima to the number 1 spot among the senatoriables.
what got us going crazy in this ad is the use of umbrellas. the story of corruption, crime ad drugs is plain to see in the ad. nothing really special about that. but what set it apart aside from the retro feel to it is the use of the umbrellas.
think about it – why did they need to do a rainy scenario out of the bar? it is January, it is not the rainy season now. the only explanation is that they wanted to use umbrellas in the ad.
and to us, the umbrella is the symbol of corruption, arrogance and power tripping that we saw when Junjun Binay, the mayor of Makati and the son of presidentiable jejomar Binay was caught in a video being shielded by a bodyguard with a giant umbrella on a non rainy night at Urdaneta Village when he harassed the security guards to let him exit the gate of the village while they were not supposed to .
this ad firmly defines De Lima’s band positioning – as the anti crime and corruption super hero, a role she fulfilled admirably while she was DOJ chief. this cements that positioning for her.
in some way, we think this positioning of hers and this ad has the potential to take away the thunder from Duterte’s tough on crime positioning.
the ad also has excellent production values. the cinematography, direction, lighting, casting and acting were very topnotch. its fun to watch!
Presidentiable Rody Duterte’s “Merry Christmas”
Duterte is a presidentiable that you either hate or love. and there is no in-between – either you passionately love him or passionately hate him. but this ad you take notice and the ending of the ad makes you smile. do not know if the haters have changed their minds about Duterte, but this ad you like for its wit and unexpected ending.
these ads are not a wawam!
there is no other way to describe what has been happening to presidentiable Jejomar Binay and his presidential campaign – his supporters are abandoning him in what can only be called a mass exodus. this is the PDI headline from the most recent survey from Pulse Asia:
this is a survey from Pulse Asia on the performance and trust rating of Binay as vice-president. this survey asks the performance and trust ratings of the top officials in the government from the president to the speaker of the house and senate to the chief justice. this is different from the election surveys that Pulse Asia (and SWS) have been conducting.
this survey asks respondents of their sentiments in the way Binay is performing his job as vice-president. people will be responding to that question based on what they think a vice president should be doing. Binay’s run for the president is not mentioned in the question that is being asked here.
the results were devastating for Binay – he took a free fall on trust and performance to his lowest level in the process losing a whopping-15% points from 58% to 43% of his approval rating on his performance of his job.
equally devastating is his trust ratings also nose dived by losing-18% points from 57% to 39%.
source : Philippine Daily Inquirer http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/727269/pulse-asia-binay-ratings-dive
those are very dramatic losses that will make any candidate or even a pollster shudder in fear. this means that on this aspect of Binay’s political life, people are very disappointed with him and that he is being abandoned by his supporters. the vice-president position is a very easy position to fulfill – because of the nature of the job, there are very little things to do unlike say the president or even the cabinet secretaries. because of the ease, the vice president in most surveys typically gets a much higher performance and trust rating than the president.
for Jejomar Binay to get a lower rating than Aquino in this survey says a lot about the huge disappointment that people have on Binay.
in a newspaper report, Binay questions the credibility of this survey by saying he has already resigned his cabinet posts when the survey was conducted, wondering what it was the respondents were rating him for his performance and trust.
Binay is mistaken and raises an irrelevant issue – the survey had asked the respondents on his performance and trust as vice president of the country, not as any of the cabinet post he has occupied and resigned from. respondents are measuring him on the basis of what the respondents think is the job and function of the vice president. as vice-president of the country, the respondents have seen his performance and trust dramatically drop.
in recent surveys released previous to this, Binay’s ratings have shown his declining ratings continue to drop. not only that, his ranking has changed from a high 2nd to either being tied by Roxas at 2nd or falling to 3rd/4th position. the ratings of mar roxas, the LP and admin standard bearer has seen his ratings surge up both in terms of numbers and position where he used to be a far 4th to now a tie at 2nd (posted here in this blog).
the questions asked of the respondents here were point blank – who would they elect as president if the elections were held at the time of the survey and who they think is a good leader to replace Aquino as president.
Binay getting declining numbers on these different surveys says a large part of Binay’s supporters are abandoning Binay in a mass exodus. they are abandoning Binay based on different dimensions of the candidate as Binay – on trust and performance as VP, as a good leader to replace Aquino and as presidential candidate. Binay is being looked at from different dimensions by the voters and in all aspects they no longer see Binay as fit.
on their own these are already dramatic and impressive declines. put that further into context, Binay used to be the top on all the surveys just a few months ago. he was all alone on top with no one even close to challenge him. Binay’s standing started to erode when alleged charges of corruption and plunder were revealed at the senate hearings. at the height of the weekly hearings, when it became vey apparent that Binay was mired in multiple corruption charges, Grace Poe a neophyte senator surged up in the surveys .
the voters saw Binay as the evil one based on the alleged charges while they saw Poe as good in an election that quickly got into a question of an election of Good vs Evil.
we have said this before. Binay should recognize what is happening to his candidacy, these survey numbers are real and representing real sentiments. the sentiments are astoundingly consistent from many dimensions. for him to change his fortunes, he needs to wear big boy pants and face the charges that have been made against him. until he does that, the declining trend will not change and continue until the actual 2016 election.
does binay have big boy pants?
Latest presidentiable poll from Pulse Asia shows a few things worth metnioning:
- Mar Roxas;s ratings surged in September to 18% from the previous 10%. that is an amazing +8% almost doubling his rating
- Roxas’ position jumped from a far fourth to now a statistical tie at 2nd with Binay with just a difference of 3% points. the survey has a margin error of +/- 3% points
- Roxas overtook Duterte who had lost ratings
- the gaps among the three, Poe, Binay and Roxas are now much closer in ratings than before
- of the top three only Roxas increased his ratings (+8% points) while not Poe (-3% points) and Binay (-1% points) deteriorated
- in fact among the top 8 politicians, only Roxas increased his ratings while the rest declined
just like the SWS survey, this Pulse Asia survey was conducted first week of September and the positive impact on Roxas’ ratings surge was president Aquino’s endorsement of Mar Roxas and Roxas owning and promising to continue Daang Matuwid. Daang Matuwid was what got Aquino to win the election by a landslide and has become the cornerstone of Aquino’s governance.
we are surprised at the power of Aquino’s endorsement and “Daang Matuwid”. we thought that would help but both have exceeded our expectations.
the value of Aquino’s endorsement come from the fact that Aquino is the most popular president of the country. and endorsement from him will help whoever candidate he endorses. Poe and Binay knew that and that is why both wanted Aquino’s endorsement. even Binay who is against Aquino had said so which on its own is a weird thing for him to say but he did.
Daang Matuwid’s power comes from the various high profile corruption cases that have been in the headlines for many months during the Aquino administration. that started with chief justice Corona who was impeached, Janet Napoles with her PDAF scam and high profile senators Enrile, Revilla and Estrada who are all in jail on corruption and plunder charges in connection with Napoles’ PDAF Scam.
aside from them. even vice president Jejomar Binay is embroiled in corruption and plunder charges that was in full media display for many months during the senate hearings. Binay being one of the presidentiables involved in corruption and plunder, the issue of corruption which Daang Matuwid is fighting has been highlighted this election season.
the country was aghast and nearly gave a collective puke every time the string of corruption charges were being revealed at the senate. there were many and each new alleged charge seem to be greater and more puke worthy than the last one. it was not lost on the people that Jejomar Binay was no ordinary government official, Binay as vice president is the second most powerful and most important elected government official in the country.
the country has in its midst the second most powerful and most important elected public official on whom alleged charges were being made that he was seemingly dirty from top to bottom and starting from the time he took public office in Makati allegedly including his family members from his wife to his children.
that was the scenario when Grace Poe came into the picture. Grace Poe was performing credibly in the senate hearings she participated in and the interviews she gave to media. she appeared to the people as a sensible, fair and most importantly clean elected government official.
as more of the alleged charges against Binay came to light and none of them answered and Binay and his spokespersons mishandling the situation, Grace Poe emerged as the exact opposite to what Binay stood for in the minds of people. that is the reason why Poe surged in the polls and took over the lead from Binay while Binay continued on his downward spiral.
Roxas at the time was just doing his job at DILG, hardly talking and not confirming his plans for the 2016 election. it is that reason why Roxas did not factor in the surveys during that particular time.
with Binay marred with alleged multi million and serial charges of corruption he was juxtaposed against Poe who was squeaky clean. all of a sudden the 2016 election became an election about Good vs. Evil.
Poe being a woman who spoke in a measured and calm tone, with little make up, dressed casually almost always was directly compared to Binay a male whom the public pictured based on the numerous corruption power point presentations being made at the senate hearing.
it was the classic Good vs Evil comparison.
when looking at election polls, specially at the early stages of the election campaign, one should not just look at the actual rating numbers but equally important one should look for the trend. the trend is the one that will kill a candidate. the trend in many ways predict the future. in election polls, respondents are being asked of their sentiments and attitudes at that point in time that the survey is being taken. that attitude and sentiment ay change in succeeding survey points. a trend describes the movement of sentiments or attitudes.
for the presidentiables once a trend is identified, that should demand some action from the presidentiable. a rising trend means whatever the presidentiable is doing is working in his favor, a declining trend means people are finding something wrong with the presidentiable. when that happens, the presidentiable need to change what he is doing or what he is saying so that the declining trend will first be arrested and then later on hopefully reversed. for that to happen, the presidentiable need to do something different from whatever he is doing at the present time.
based on the polls as of this writing : poe is on the lead but trending flat; roxas is 2nd/3rd, an impressive climb and trending up while binay has decreased and continue to trend downwards.
are poe, roxas and binay listening to the trend?
The survey was conducted Septemebr 2 to 5, 2105 and has the following ratings for the three presidentiables :
- Grace Poe : 26%
- Jemomar Binay : 24% (difference vs Poe – 2% points)
- Mar Roxas : 20% (dofference vs Binay – 4% points)
With a margin of error at +/- 3%, Poe and Binay are on a statistical tie while Roxas vs Binay with a difference of 4% points is statistically significant but it being just shy by 1% point, that is considered a statistical tie.
unlike the other SWS survey which was an options survey (respondents were asked to name 3 candidates who can replace Aquino), this is a real elections survey where respondents were asked to identify only 1 candidate who they might vote as president if the elections were held during the time of the survey.
this survey gave a triple whammy to all three presdientiables Poe, Binay and Roxas.
1st whammy – this is the biggest whammy and it is for the benefit of Mar Roxas. mar roxas before this survey was a far third to Poe and Binay. roxas jumping to tie the front runners is a big jump for roxas. this mimics the same kind of giant improvement that Roxas got in the other SWS survey where he got a +18% point improvement catapulting him to 2nd position (read here: http://wp.me/pnw03-1W0).
this shows Roxas is a legitimate contender in the election and is on an impressive increasing trend. the increasing trend will serve Roxas well as we move to the actual election in 2016, this means Roxas is building his support base at the same time the support base of Poe and Binay are not moving if not weakening.
2nd whammy – this one hurts Garce Poe. Poe in previous surveys showed she was way ahead of the others and was a clear leader. this survey with two of her rivals catching up with her shows she is not invincible. it says she can be beaten.
3rd whammy – this hurts Jejomar Binay. Binay used to be the runaway winner in the polls but his ratings have been suffering and was on a massive declining trend since the corruption and plunder charges have been exposed in the senate. Binay just getting a tie with the two others means Binay has not arrested his declining trend and continue to suffer in the polls.
unless Binay changes things, like address the corruption and plunder charges against him, the declining trend will continue and his numbers will shrink significantly by election time. it is possible that the shrinkage will be big enough that the other leaders will overtake him.
Roxas’ ratings have gone up driven by the endorsement of President Aquino for his presidentiable run and Roxas’ declaring that he will continue Aquino’s “Daang Matuwid”. Aquino endorsed Roxas’ presidential run in an event held at Club Filipino on August 30, 2015. Roxas also ran ads almost the next day where he said he will continue Aquino’s “Dang Matuwid”.
Roxas has gained the momentum from this survey and will allow him to enlarge his support base.
Poe will need to work harder to get back her stellar number one position. Let us see if her numbers will improve on the next survey behind her announcement that she will run for president in an event that happened after this survey was conducted.
Question On Methodology & Design For SWS :
we noticed that the two presidentiables surveys, the options survey and this election survey were run on the same time period. did that mean the questions for the these two separate surveys were in one questionnaire and both were asked of the respondents in the same sitting?
if so, was there no order bias in their answers?
i would think there would be order bias and one or both of the answers of the respondents will be affected by the other. it would be difficult to accept the survey results if there was order bias.