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manny villar shows class, first to concede to aquino, others follow

May 11, 2010 3 comments

we thought  manny villar showed class and character in being the first to concede the election to noynoy aquino, the presidentiable who has a commanding lead in the elections. aside from the action of conceding, we thought he gave an excellent concession speech with words of encouragement to the winner, mea culpa, personal touch and words of support and reconciliation with his opponents.

to us manny villar had his ratings go up.

4 presidential bets concede defeat

 INQUIRER.net, Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 11:12:00 05/11/2010

MANILA, Philippines—(UPDATE 2) A day after the election, four presidential candidates conceded to Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, currently the frontrunner in the political race that saw over 40 million Filipinos vote electronically for the first time for their leaders in the national and local levels.

Senators Manuel Villar and Richard Gordon, former defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro, and JC de los Reyes of Kapatiran Party issued separate statements giving notice that they were dropping out of the contest and expressed their support for Aquino who was expected to be proclaimed the next president.

Villar and Gordon said that “the people have spoken” and congratulated Aquino on his impending victory.

“Nagpasya na ang mga mamamayang Pilipino. Malinaw na sa kabila ng ating pagpupunyagi, hindi tayo nabiyayayaan ng tagumpay sa halalan noong Lunes [The Filipino people have decided. It is clear that despite our efforts, we were not blessed to win in Monday’s elections],” Villar said, reading a prepared statement before members of the media in his headquarters at the Starmall in Mandaluyong early Tuesday.

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why will richard gordon lose this election?

May 10, 2010 23 comments

on theory, richard gordon is a good candidate for the presidency. he is a known achiever with an excellent and highly impressive success credentials from his work at olangapo city, the rehabilitation of subic bay and his work as tourism secretary. he has no  corruption or any other scandal baggage that pulls him down or that others can use against him. in fact none of that appeared during the election. or perhaps his opponents did not find the need to bother with gordon.

and that is where the problem of gordon’s candidacy lie – nobody wants to bother with him. it is in many ways the reason why he will lose this election.

gordon is a smart man. he speaks very well, he knows the issues and offers interesting solutions to problems he sees. but he has no audience for these things. very few listens to him.

why will gordon lose this election?

  • he started late in the campaign. it felt like he did not tell anyone he was planning on running for the president in this election. this is an election that started very early, by the time he announced his candidacy, his competitors, villar, aquino and estrada in particular were already way ahead of him in getting the people to form a support based for themselves.
  • gordon has no constituency. he is an elected senator but he may have lost that political base through the years and as how it is in politics, voters who voted for a candidate as a senator does not automatically translate to a vote when the same candidate runs for the presidency. the criteria changes and the thinking process applied by the voters is re-invented.
  • gordon is very much a lone wolf. gordon may have a very loud howl compared to some of the presidentiables and the his peers at the senate but he does not belong to a pack. he operates too much on his own and that is an automatic weakness for someone who is running for president.
  • gordon has an obnoxious personality. he sounds smart all the time but over and above that, he comes off as obnoxious and a real ass hole. that is a turn off among many voters across all demographics and most specially for the bulk of the voters, the CDE. a minimum requirement for this set of voters is a likable personality if not a charming one.
  • he had very little funds for his advertising and other marketing and communication efforts. aside from the historical value of this election, this one will also go down in history as one of the most expensive. manny villar started his campaign and spending many centuries ago, way ahead of everyone else. not having funds is a definite killer in this election.  we live in a world if mixed media and communication channels. funds is a prerequisite for success.

these are things that gordon should have realized as he was making his decision to run for president. too bad with all his smarts and eloquence he failed to see them.

~~~mindscape landmark~~~
carlo arvisu

whatever happened to “the transformers” of richard gordon and bayani fernando?

May 9, 2010 1 comment

we likes a lot the idea of “the transformers”  of gordon and bayani when they first announced their candidacy of president and vice-president. aside from that time, there was really no mention of it afterwards. too bad they didn’t they make a big  deal of it, we think  it could have been a game changer for them,

this poster artwork we have here we think is one of the best we have seen in this campaign.  

May 2010 SWS-BusinessWorld Presidentiables Poll – no change among laggards; teodoro doubles Class E rating

May 7, 2010 2 comments

the standings of the laggards group, teodoro, gordon, villanueva, perlas, madrigal and de los reyes have not change.  their over-all ratings show inability to move. with just 3 days to go before election time, there is really not much these candidates to do to change the outcome of the poll results with the same result most likely will be mirrored in the election results after the may 10 election.

the only notable change is the rating of gilbert teodoro where his rating in the E socio-eco class doubled from previous 6% to this poll period at now 12%. while this is definitely a very impressive showing, it had no impact on his over-all rating. to us it appears teodoro has been stuck at the single digit numbers.

Former Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro Jr., the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD party’s candidate, remained fourth with an unchanged score of 9%.

Bangon Pilipinas bet Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva was fifth with 3%, followed by Partido Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon (2%), Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” G. de los Reyes (0.3%), and independents Maria Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.2%) and Nicanor Jesus “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%)

Six percent of the respondents were classed as undecided. This category included votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan bet Vetellano “Dodong” Acosta and others.

As in three prior surveys, the last BW-SWS poll had respondents being asked to fill out ballots in a simulation of the May 10 exercise. Polled were 2,400 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 for Metro Manila, 900 in the Balance of Luzon, and 600 each in the Visayas and Mindanao.

(The BW-SWS polls for December and January involved the interviewers providing lists of candidates and asking the respondents to choose.)

The error margins used were ±2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±4% for the Visayas and Mindanao.

They were asked: “Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino ang pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto bilang presidente, bise-presidente, mga senador at party list ng Pilipinas? Narito ang listahan ng mga kandidato. Paki-shade o itiman po ang naaangkop na oval katabi ng pangalan ng taong pinakamalamang ninyong iboboto. (If the elections were held today, whom would you most probably vote for as president, vice-president, senator, and party list of the Philippines? Here is a list of candidates. Please shade the oval beside the name of the persons you would most likely vote for.)

source: http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=10589

read the platforms of government of all presidentiables here

May 2, 2010 3 comments

presidentiables stand on how they will generate jobs

May 2, 2010 3 comments

 

source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/talkofthetown/view/20100501-267548/How-theyll-generate-jobs

How they’ll generate jobs 
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 21:13:00 05/01/2010

FILIPINOS CONTINUE TO LEAVE FOR JOBS OVERSEAS. THERE ARE SIMPLY not enough jobs available in the country. While remittances help keep the economy afloat, the social costs of a parent or spouse working abroad are huge. A bright spot is the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which has absorbed tens of thousands of college graduates. But the BPO sector benefits mostly the middle class. It is closed to the poor who have less education. A big number of Filipinos are unemployed or underemployed or have simply given up hope of finding a job. How the next administration will address the unemployment problem can be gleaned from the answers of the presidential candidates to the following questions:

How will you generate jobs? What policies and programs will you pursue to create jobs?
What kind of jobs will be generated under your administration? What sectors, industries?
Will you encourage the export of labor?

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal Party

THE NO. 1 ITEM IN OUR PLATform is job generation. The theory is we could increase the quality and remuneration of jobs available here. It might not match those in other countries but with the added benefit of having your family and you are a first-class citizen here. We might have enough people who will decide to stay.

We want something like (US President Franklin) Roosevelt’s job creation program—building schools or public works projects with a big labor bias. If the project will not be delayed and it’s OK cost-wise, then we will choose a labor-intensive program.

We have so many areas that have a big potential like the BPO sector, IT and agriculture, particularly post-harvest production. Agriculture can be subdivided [into subsectors]. There are also many others that have not been exploited like fruits, [which can be processed into] fruit juices.

My understanding of the law is that the state cannot make it a policy to export our workers. Nevertheless, I want to make sure that the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration, the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration, and our embassies and consulates really help all our overseas Filipino workers (OFWs).

A very significant portion of the population are OFWs outside the country. So the main point is that if they leave, it’s because they want to and not because they have to.
Interview by Philip Tubeza

 

JC de los Reyes
Ang Kapatiran

WORK IS A WAY OF FULFILLing part of our human potential given to us by God. If the dignity of work is to be protected, then the basic rights of workers, owners and managers must be respected—the right to productive work, to decent and fair wages, to organize and join unions, to economic initiative, and to ownership and private property.

Ang Kapatiran shall ensure rapid and sustained economic growth for sustainable poverty reduction and better quality of life for all by:

Reviewing and rationalizing all outstanding public debts and limiting future government borrowings within the growth level of our exports or GDP;

Raising private and public savings rates to increase total investment rate;

Enhancing investments in human resource development, especially by strengthening education in the sciences, mathematics, engineering and English;

Streamlining government bureaucracy to reduce personnel expenditures;

Drastically improving tax administration and revenue collection;

Abolishing laws, rules and regulations that give government revenue personnel the discretion to allow or disallow certain deductions or exemptions;

Prioritizing agricultural development to attain a high degree of self-sufficiency by encouraging productivity through the introduction of new technologies and support-infrastructure;

Creating microfinance and other credit facilities for small enterprises by harnessing OFW remittances and more exports for economic development;

Encouraging livelihood through the formation of cooperatives and other small enterprises and development programs to alleviate poverty in the grassroots level;

Implementing the agrarian reform program;

Promoting industrialization by encouraging the expansion of useful industries, including telecommunications and information technology;

Attaining a stable balance of trade by encouraging the development of new export products and improving existing ones.

In summary, Ang Kapatiran shall work for a “job-filled society”—industrialization for the economic well-being of all, agricultural development, microfinance and other credit facilities for small- and medium-enterprises, and positive investment climate to reverse the outflow of OFWs.
Interview by Jerome Aning

 

Joseph Estrada
Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino

WE WILL GET RID OF THE secessionist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the New People’s Army (NPA). So we will start developing the countryside. Right now, the government cannot develop the countryside.

In the early ’50s and ’60s, informal settlers or squatters were concentrated in Metro Manila. Today, in all urban areas, there are squatters because the countryside remains undeveloped. There’s the NPA. In Mindanao, there’s the MILF.

We will concentrate on services and agriculture to generate jobs. When there’s peace and order, there’ll no longer be [adverse] travel advisories from other countries. We will improve our tourism.

We cannot stop the export of labor soon. Maybe within two to three years. It will take time to generate jobs. Like for example, during my time, if you will remember we planned to change the economic provisions of the Constitution so that we can generate jobs.

We will allow foreigners to own land here except agricultural land. If we allow foreigners to own land they can compete with our local realtors and once (they own land) they will develop that. Once they develop that, it will generate jobs.
Interview by Norman Bordadora

 

Richard Gordon
Bagumbayan

WE HAVE NATURAL TRAITS and skills for tourism. We can be the beach capital of the world. We have enough airports already. Our problem is we have to do some policy on certain airports to be declared “open skies.” Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam have open skies.

The educational system is producing many hotel and restaurant management graduates. That is the future. Because of the tourism law which I authored, we can now invite more investors to build establishments without overtaxing the environment.

We can spread out hotels. Tourists will not want to go to Boracay every year. They want to go to new destinations. Our graduates can be tuned into tourism and entrepreneurship. But our education must also leapfrog to information technology. So you will want more software development.

We may have to export labor for a while, but we will encourage enhancing labor skills. I am not going to send a maid. I am going to send a governess. There is a value added.

We also have to make sure that we harness savings instead of encouraging a consumption-based economy. We will have a provident fund in which we are able to raise money from the savings of our overseas workers. Professional people should run the fund as they do it in Singapore.
Interview by Edson C. Tandoc Jr.

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SWS’ mahar mangahas answers richard gordon

May 2, 2010 1 comment

it’s hard to believe richard gordon do not have an appreciation of surveys and he is that ignorant of it. he has been a politician for a long time and his previous job at the private sector (procter & gamble) must have given him a good dose of knowledge on it.

but he has taken SWS and Pulse Asia to court, so we can assume he does not know a lot of things. mahar mangahas of SWS gives him an answer, for his knowledge:

source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/columns/view/20100430-267410/Ignorant-columnists-may-not-be-TROd

Social Climate
Ignorant columnists may not be TRO’d

by Mahar Mangahas
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 23:34:00 04/30/2010

ABOUT COLUMNISTS. EVERY THREE YEARS, IN the Philippines, comes a silly season when some columnists excel in misinforming the public about survey science. These are the ones who assert, for instance, that “a survey of only one or two thousand respondents cannot possibly represent many millions of voters.” Despite repeated demonstrations that a properly conducted sample survey is indeed representative of the whole population, they will not accept it, and would rather bask in their ignorance.

Now, is there a way for a columnist who propagates falsehoods to be legally suppressed? For instance, may professional statisticians petition a court for a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) to stop a columnist from vilifying statistical research about voters’ preferences? The answer to this is NO.

A columnist has a constitutional right to display his ignorance, without prior restraint. This is because the right of free expression is a preferred right—“prior restraint” and “preferred right” being legal phrases.

The statisticians’ legal remedy for a columnist’s abuse of free speech would be to sue for damages afterwards. But they don’t bother, because a statistically-challenged columnist doesn’t fool the people who really count.

About Gordon’s complaint. Last week, Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon asked a Regional Trial Court to issue a TRO against Social Weather Stations and another survey entity, to desist from conducting and publishing their election surveys, which he called “false, inaccurate and flawed,” causing him “grave and irreparable injury.”

Gordon’s suit is ridiculously sloppy. Above all, it is ignorant of the Supreme Court’s affirmation that election surveys are constitutionally protected (see my April 17 column). In SWS v. Comelec (G.R. 147571, May 5, 2001), the Court nullified the section of the 2001 Fair Election Act that attempted to ban publication of election surveys. It ruled that such a ban “imposes a prior restraint on the freedom of expression” and forms “a direct and total suppression of a category of expression” during the elections.

Gordon claims that “surveys issued by the defendants … showed him only at the 29th spot,” and yet he won as senator in 2004. Actually, the SWS surveys of the 2004 senatorial race had him as 14th in Jan. 18-22, tied for 16th on Feb. 17-25, 14th on March 21-29, tied for 8th on April 10-17, and tied for 9th (with 29 percent of the vote) on May 1-4. It looks like 29 percent was misread as 29th place. Thus he was already in the winning circle in the last two SWS pre-election surveys.

Gordon’s complaints about methodology are false. (1) My column of March 6, 2010 reported that SWS received two awards from the Gallup World Poll for excellence in field methodology, among all of Gallup’s Asian field providers. (2) Face-to-face interviewing, which we always do, and which Gordon thinks “outmoded,” is part of Gallup’s job order to SWS. (3) We agree with Gordon that sampling should be done by probability, and not by quota. Apparently he doesn’t know that SWS always does the former, and never does the latter.

Gordon calls it “highly improbable” that SWS did two national surveys over as short a period as March 19-30, 2010. Actually, SWS did eight national surveys, not all about elections, over January-April 2010, plus several local surveys.

Gordon alleges that, last April 14, an unidentified SWS pollster in Cebu asked a respondent to choose between only two presidential candidates, instead of among 10. Comments: (1) SWS had no election survey in Cebu on that date; (2) all SWS interviewers have ID cards—tell us her name so that we can check; (3) the published SWS election surveys always feature the 10 candidates; (4) in any case, it is legitimate for anyone to inquire how a voter would choose between two candidates.

Gordon’s claim that SWS fails to disclose its sponsors is false. Check the website, http://www.sws. org.ph. The SWS Survey Data Library is open to the public. Its staff helps visitors, short of serving as research assistants. The library fee is affordable even to students. Users should come personally, and not expect their technical questions to be answered by mail.

Gordon’s citations of survey errors in past elections are very few; they are the exceptions that prove the rule, like the failure of US pollsters to predict Truman’s win over Dewey in 1948, which he cites as though it was SWS’ fault too. My 2009 paper, “The challenge of election surveys in the Philippines,” summarizes our election survey record; see our website. The error of the 2004 exit poll in Metro Manila was investigated by an independent group of scientists, and no fraudulence was found; see their report on the website.

Gordon’s claim that “there are no associations of professional pollsters and polling firms which regulate, control, and sanction defendants … for their violation of the code of professional ethics …” is false. Seems he hasn’t heard of the Marketing and Opinion Research Society of the Philippines (MORES), founded in 1977. Both MORES and the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR), to which key SWS staff members belong, have Codes of Ethics. Last Wednesday, the MORES board of directors issued a press statement denouncing Gordon’s petition for striking at the heart of our democratic process.

If the SWS election surveys were not true, accurate, and best-quality, I wonder if Gordon would still be interested in a TRO. Maybe he would just grant us the same freedom of speech that we allow to ignorant columnists.

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